Matchups play a huge part in fantasy managers' weekly lineup decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, the decision often boils down to: Which one has the best matchup?
We use that word -- matchups -- a lot. But what, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
This is where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchups highlights at each position -- both favorable and unfavorable -- based upon those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (Point Per Reception) scoring.
The maps include two measures: The first, "Rk," is my personal ranking of how favorable/unfavorable I consider that positional matchup; the second, "Adj. FPA," reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense held opponents at that position. All data is from the past five weeks' NFL action.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited; not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup: Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (versus Atlanta Falcons). That's back-to-back weeks for Murray in this spot, and while well over half of his Week 5 fantasy points came from running the football, it's worth pointing out that he wasn't intercepted for only the second time in his five NFL games to date while posting the second-highest average depth of target (9.4, trailing only his 9.6 in Week 1). There's work to be done here passing the football, but we'll take his fantasy points any way they come, and Murray should benefit here from another marshmallow-soft matchup.
The Falcons' defense has been an utter mess without strong safety Keanu Neal, evidenced by their surrendering a season-worst 37.0 fantasy points on passing plays to Deshaun Watson in Week 5 -- that was in fact the most such points in more than a calendar year, and remember that Murray has similar mobility to Watson. Since the beginning of the 2017 season, the Falcons have afforded 16.3 fantasy points per game and 0.379 points per passing attempt to opposing quarterbacks when Neal has played, but 23.5 points per game and 0.543 per attempt when Neal was sidelined.
Unfavorable matchup: Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams (versus San Francisco 49ers). The 49ers' defense is one to generally avoid, strong as it has performed to date, allowing only 60.4 PPR fantasy points per game to all opposing skill-position players combined with 11 total takeaways (tied for third most despite their playing one fewer game than most). And while the 49ers have stronger metrics against opposing running backs than quarterbacks, they've also made Jameis Winston (7.1 fantasy points in Week 1) and Baker Mayfield (minus-2.0 in Week 5) look especially poor in past matchups this season. In short, there's a lot of matchups downside here.
Goff's accuracy has been spotty at best through five weeks, his 3.2% interception rate his highest since his rookie season in 2016 (3.4%), a concern especially considering his past four matchups have all graded above-average for quarterbacks through five weeks. He should be relegated to QB2 status in two-quarterback leagues for Week 6.
Running backs
Favorable matchup: Kerryon Johnson, Detroit Lions (at Green Bay Packers). While the Packers have played excellent football against the pass thus far -- their 75.9 passer rating allowed is fourth best in the NFL -- they've been one of the least-effective defenses against the run, their 5.2 yards-per-carry rate fourth-worst, six rushing touchdowns allowed tied for fifth worst and 158.2 PPR fantasy points allowed second worst. In particular, the Packers have had extreme trouble stopping the run at the goal line, surrendering a league-high five touchdowns in six carries inside the 3-yard line and a league-high 1.8 yards after contact per carry on goal-to-go plays.
That's where Johnson stands out: He's the Lions' unquestioned goal-line back, receiving four carries on the team's four offensive plays inside the opponent's 3-yard line thus far, as well as 9-of-16 goal-to-go plays. Johnson also carried the football 20-plus times in each of the Lions' two games before their Week 5 bye, which should've refreshed him a bit. Expect a hefty workload and outstanding odds of a rushing score.
Unfavorable matchup: Jordan Howard, Philadelphia Eagles (at Minnesota Vikings). Conversely, the Vikings have been one of the league's best defenses in short-yardage situations, which decreases Howard's prospects of success in Week 6. On 15 rushing plays within a yard of a first down (or touchdown), the Vikings have afforded only nine conversions, their 60% rate tied for fifth best, a 2.2 yards-per-carry average that ranks tied for 12th-best and 0.9 yards after contact rate that ranks 13th best. Howard, meanwhile, has scored 25.9 of his 65.5 PPR fantasy points for the season on his 16 goal-to-go plays (that's out of 59 total touches).
Another thing to keep in mind: These Vikings limited Devonta Freeman to 4.1 PPR fantasy points in Week 1, Josh Jacobs to 4.4 points in Week 3 and David Montgomery to 9.7 points in Week 5. Only Aaron Jones (25.0 points in Week 2) had an extremely successful game against this defense.
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: Curtis Samuel, Carolina Panthers (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers). The Buccaneers have been one of the most favorable matchups for opposing wide receivers through five weeks, having served up the most total PPR fantasy points to the position (225.6) as well as the second-most points to WR1s (117.3, trailing only the New York Giants' 118.2), so anyone on the Panthers' side of the ball warrants your consideration in Week 6. While everyone assumes DJ Moore is the Panthers wideout to get, I wouldn't be too sure: In Kyle Allen's three starts, Samuel is the one with a greater target share (23% to 17%), and he has more red-zone targets (4-0) between the two. Samuel is also the one who has rotated around the line of scrimmage more, granting him a chance at a larger number of advantageous matchups against cornerbacks Vernon Hargreaves III, who typically lines up on the perimeter, and M.J. Stewart, who typically covers the opponent's slot receiver.
Hargreaves and Stewart have ranked among the least effective cover corners this year, and Samuel did score 14.3 PPR fantasy points against this defense in Week 2.
Unfavorable matchup: Jarvis Landry, Cleveland Browns (versus Seattle Seahawks). Slot receivers have had a rough go of it against the Seahawks, dating to the beginning of last season, in fact, as they've allowed a league-low one receiving touchdown to receivers who lined up out of the slot. Justin Coleman has been one of the best defenders against slot receivers, with a 62.3 passer rating allowed on 22 targets, totaling six passes defensed with simply that one score surrendered. The five wide receivers who ran the most routes out of the slot against the Seahawks this season, too, have averaged only 12.8 PPR fantasy points per game.
Landry continues to see a high rate of targets, earning a greater-than-25% share in each of the past three weeks, but he might struggle to find openings in Week 6.
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: Austin Hooper, Atlanta Falcons (at Arizona Cardinals). While Tyler Eifert snapped the string of games with a tight-end touchdown allowed by the Cardinals in Week 5, bear in mind that he played only 27% of the Cincinnati Bengals' offensive snaps and was targeted only four times, three of them on the Bengals' side of the field. The opportunity simply wasn't there for him, though it certainly will be for Hooper, who has played 82% of the Falcons' offensive snaps and been targeted 42 times, six of them in the red zone, those being fifth most and tied for third most at the position.
Even with Eifert's -- and C.J. Uzomah's, as he was the Bengals' tight end on the field more often, with similarly quiet results -- performance, the Cardinals' defense has still allowed the most PPR fantasy points (118.1) and points per target (2.6) to the position through five games this season.
Unfavorable matchup: Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans (at Denver Broncos). For the second consecutive week, Walker draws a miserable matchup, and keep in mind that in Week 5 against the Buffalo Bills he scored only 2.0 PPR fantasy points, drawing only two targets on 16 routes run. It doesn't help that Walker's role seems to be shrinking, too, as he has played only 36% of the offensive snaps with four total targets the past two weeks combined, whereas fellow Titans tight end Jonnu Smith has played 64% of the offensive snaps with three targets. The team appears to value Smith's ability as a blocker, especially when possessing the lead.
While the Broncos haven't faced many elite pass-catching tight ends, their Week 1 game against the Oakland Raiders' Darren Waller serves the blueprint for this matchup: He caught seven of eight targets, but turned them into only 25 receiving yards and 14.0 PPR fantasy points. Cornerback Kareem Jackson (64.6 passer rating allowed) has been one of the better defenders against the position so far this season.