Over his past two seasons with the New Orleans Saints, running back Mark Ingram II rushed for 1,769 yards -- at 4.81 yards per carry -- while posting a total of 18 scores on the ground. And with Ingram now slated to see a boost in carries as lead back for the run-heavy Baltimore Ravens, I've been targeting the veteran consistently in my mock drafts over the summer.
With many leagues drafting over the next two weeks as we lead up to the start of the NFL season, here are eight players I've been locked in on due to scheme fit, productive traits and their current ADP (average draft position).
NOTE: 2019 stat projections are from ESPN's Mike Clay.
RB Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
Current ADP: 48.6 (RB20)
Clay's projection: 200 carries, 932 yards, eight touchdowns; 37 receptions, 279 yards, two touchdowns
In almost every mock draft, I'm locking up Jones in the third round. He's my target for that RB2 spot in the lineup because of his traits as a runner -- plus the flexibility as a pass-game option -- in Matt LaFleur's new offensive system. And I really like the fit here -- if the volume jumps.
In his two pro seasons, Jones has produced 1,176 yards and 12 rushing scores on 214 carries. That's 5.50 yards per carry. Productive number. And with an anticipated bump in touches, Jones is in a position to boost his totals in LaFleur's offense as a zone runner.
This guy is a slasher, with the balance to dip through daylight. And while I don't expect Jones to put up monster numbers as a pass-catcher, the screen game could be a weapon for Green Bay this season off misdirection. Just get Jones some opportunities in space.
Yeah, the Packers will get Jamaal Williams some carries too. But I'm banking on Jones emerging as the No.1 back in Green Bay. It's the upside here of Jones seeing more consistent volume in a system that should put defenders in conflict. I'll take that with the current ADP.
RB Mark Ingram II, Baltimore Ravens
Current ADP: 54.3 (RB22)
Clay's projection: 226 carries, 1,028 yards, eight touchdowns; 36 receptions, 275 yards, one touchdown
I'm probably a little too high on Ingram, but why not when looking at the run game approach in Baltimore? This is all about the carries for Ingram to pair with his decisive, downhill running style that should fit with a pretty nasty Ravens ground game.
Yes, the threat of quarterback Lamar Jackson running the ball is real. And he is going to get his carries on QB-designed runs. But this rushing attack in Baltimore isn't all just about Jackson. If we go back to 2018, once Jackson took over as the starter, the Ravens running backs produced a league-high 1,043 yards rushing -- at 5.40 yards per carry. And Ingram is an upgrade over Gus Edwards in that backfield, given the footwork and the vision to find extra running room.
With Ingram also expected to see the goal-line touches, and contributing some numbers in the pass game too, I'm targeting the veteran in all Non-PPR formats. I see value here for a back who has produced at least six touchdowns in the past five seasons, and the touches should climb here on a team that wants to win with the run game.
WR Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
Current ADP: 59.9 (WR21)
Clay's projection: 69 receptions, 962 yards, six touchdowns
With Doug Baldwin retiring, and some early injuries to the Seahawks wide receiver group, I'm all-in on Lockett. Sure, some touchdown regression should be expected after Lockett racked up 10 scoring grabs in 2018. But with an anticipated boost in overall targets, and the deep-ball ability of Wilson, I see more volume and the same big-play upside with Lockett in the lineup as a WR2.
Since 2015, Wilson leads the NFL in deep touchdown percentage at 13.5%. And Lockett can get over the top of any secondary when he aligns in the slot. Picture Lockett working back across the field or getting matched up on a deep-half safety. Here comes the shake on a deep double-move to make a house call.
Plus, we have to discuss the Wilson-to-Lockett connection off play-action throws. Last season, Wilson completed 20 of 21 targets to Lockett on play-action concepts for 384 yards and five touchdowns. That's a crazy stat. But it's also a key part of the Seahawks' system, which will continue this year given the offensive approach in Seattle.
With Lockett's current ADP, I'm passing on Robert Woods, Kenny Golladay and Alshon Jeffery for the Seahawks' No.1 wide receiver. Give me an uptick in target volume with the same explosive play traits in both PPR and non-PPR formats.
WR Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers
Current ADP: 67.2 (WR23)
Clay's projection: 64 receptions, 918 yards, eight touchdowns
On tape, Williams looks like the guy who used to take over games back at Clemson. It's the long frame, body control and the monster catch radius in a Chargers system that caters to his overall skill set. Hi-low concepts, deep in-cuts and red zone isolation routes with a quarterback in Philip Rivers who has thrown for over 4,200 yards in six straight seasons.
Last season, Williams hauled in 10 touchdown grabs. But even if that number dips a little bit, Williams should still see a big jump in targets as the No. 2 opposite Keenan Allen in L.A. -- which includes the red zone. And that's where Williams can cash in. Last season, he saw an 18.8% red zone target share. Why stop now? He is a serious matchup problem inside the 20-yard line.
Just think about this: Williams averaged 14.62 air yards per target last season, and he is going to see the ball even more this year. I love the offensive fit and the talent here. That's why I have been targeting Williams all summer in my mocks. He has breakout potential this year, and his value is excellent give the current ADP.
RB David Montgomery, Chicago Bears
Current ADP: 71.5 (RB26)
Clay's projection: 212 carries, 938 yards, six touchdowns; 32 receptions, 266 yards, one touchdown
During his final season at Iowa State, Montgomery averaged 3.12 yards after first contact. He's slippery, and there is some serious wiggle/body control to his game. With a pro running style, and the natural hands to catch the ball, Montgomery should slide into the role held by Jordan Howard last season in Chicago. And from a volume perspective, Howard ranked in the top 10 in percentage of team carries last season at 53.4%
Yes, Tarik Cohen will get his touches. He's a dynamic player. The Bears added Mike Davis, too. But Montgomery has the traits to make an immediate impact in coach Matt Nagy's system -- the zone runs, the screens and the quick routes out of the backfield. And given the multiple personnel groupings, alignments and pre-snap movement we see from Nagy's game plan, Montgomery should be put in a position to produce starting in Week 1.
Looking at the fringe RB2s during mock drafts -- Phillip Lindsay, Kenyan Drake, Tevin Coleman, etc. I want the guy with more upside and volume in a multiple offensive system. That's Montgomery given his overall skill set at the position.
WR Dede Westbrook, Jacksonville Jaguars
Current ADP: 98.6 (WR33)
Clay's projections: 73 receptions, 830 yards, four touchdowns
The Jags want to run the rock. We all know it. But don't forget about Westbrook's elevated route-running skills and top-end speed in an upgraded passing offense with Nick Foles at QB.
Think about this: Westbrook posted a touchdown grab or had at least five receptions in nine of 16 games last season. And he did that in a dreadful passing offense, one that was ranked in the bottom five in passer rating, touchdown percentage and passing yards per attempt. Brutal stuff.
This season, we should expect an uptick in those numbers with Foles under center. Since 2017, including the playoffs, Foles ranks No.5 in on-target percentage (86.1). Former Jags quarterback Blake Bortles? He ranks No.32, at 81.3%. This speaks to Foles' traits as a passer, too. He's a rhythm guy who can get the ball out with speed.
That means targets to Westbrook in the quick game, off play-action inside of the numbers, and the isolation matchups where Foles can take a shot. There's value here given Westbrook's ADP, and real upside in PPR formats. The guy can play.
WR James Washington, Pittsburgh Steelers
Current ADP: 138.4 (WR48)
Clay's projection: 46 receptions, 634 yards, four touchdowns
In three-wide-receiver formats, I'm jumping on Washington later in mocks. Yeah, the second-year wide receiver only caught 16 passes for 217 yards and a score as a rookie in 2018. But I keep going back to this Steelers' passing system and the need for outside targets with JuJu Smith-Schuster working inside. Vertical opportunities are there, and Washington has an explosive-play skill set.
Last season, Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger led the NFL with 675 attempts, posting 5,129 passing yards. Roethlisberger also ranked No.3 in the NFL with 78 throws of 20 yards or more. And while I'm not a big believer in preseason film, we have to acknowledge that Washington has shown up on vertical concepts this August.
With Donte Moncrief also in the mix for the Steelers, Washington has an opportunity to emerge as a No.2 in Pittsburgh or play a key role in three-receiver sets. And with a bump in targets coming here, I'm taking the higher ceiling of Washington as an intermediate/vertical threat in a Steelers passing game that will push the ball down the field.
TE Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens
Current ADP: 160.3 (TE18)
Clay's projections: 48 receptions, 650 yards, four touchdowns
I usually wait on the tight end position. Give me all the running backs and wide receivers first. But that's why I look for tight ends with upside late in the draft. And Andrews fits that profile for me as a "sleeper" at the position.
Last season, Andrews posted a team-high 308 yards receiving with Jackson at quarterback, including an average of 9.5 yards after the catch. That's the play-action in the Ravens' offense, and it will continue under new offensive coordinator Greg Roman. Throw the seam, the deep over or the shallow cross off misdirection and boot action in the backfield. Pistol, shotgun and under-the-center concepts there. A lot of different looks.
Now, given the use of multiple tight end sets in the Ravens system -- and the heavy run game script in Baltimore -- Andrews has a lower fantasy floor than other tight ends. I get it.
However, Jackson did target Andrews on 23.3% of his routes run last season, and the big man can move on tape when he catches the ball inside of the numbers. I'll take the upside with Andrews in a system that will create opportunities over Jimmy Graham or Kyle Rudolph given the current ADP of the Ravens tight end.