The fantasy football world has lagged behind when it comes to effectively measuring the impact blocking has on fantasy production, so last year I devised a grading system that uses multiple advanced metrics to project how blocking matchups will impact fantasy football performance in the upcoming week's contests. The details of the system can be found here.
The entire list of the Week 17 overall matchup grades are posted below, along with a detailed look at how those blocking grades could impact certain start-sit decisions this week.
(Note: The metrics and rankings listed below are for Weeks 11-16).
Most favorable matchups
New York Giants (vs. Dallas Cowboys)
The Giants offense was hitting on all cylinders last week from a fantasy scoring perspective. Evan Engram (17.3 points) posted his highest scoring game since Week 2, Sterling Shepard's 17.0 points was his highest mark since Week 7 and Eli Manning racked up his second 20-plus point game of the season.
Since that trio has been far from the model of consistency in scoring, what are the chances that they post similar numbers in this week's battle against the Cowboys?
The pass-blocking metrics lean heavily towards a repeat performance. The Giants rank second in quarterback contact rate (QCR, 7.0 percent), ninth in pass pressure rate (PPR) allowed (26.8 percent) and 11th in average time allowed in pocket (TIP, 2.3 seconds).
Those numbers hold up quite well against a Dallas defense that ranks 27th in PPR (25.5), 22nd in QCR (12.4) and 23rd in sack rate (5.6 percent).
There is also the factor of Dallas possibly resting its starters for at least a portion of this game, as this contest has no bearing on the Cowboys playoff seeding.
Combine these elements and Engram should be considered a TE1, Shepard a solid WR2 and Manning a strong QB2 in 2-QB leagues and a potential QB1 option for fantasy managers who need quarterback help this week.
Indianapolis Colts (at Tennessee Titans)
Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton have been must-start candidates this season, and Eric Ebron has posted superb fantasy point totals in many contests, but the rest of the Colts' pass-catching corps has been too inconsistent to trust on a regular basis for most of the 2018 campaign.
The trustworthiness scale may have tipped in a positive direction last week when Chester Rogers and Dontrelle Inman both posted 14-plus points against the Giants.
That has fantasy managers who are in need of wide receiver help wondering if they can take the chance and put either of these players into a championship game lineup.
The pass-blocking metrics strongly suggest they can do just that. The Colts rank third in PPR allowed (20.3), fifth in QCR (8.4) and third in sack rate (2.8).
That should afford a significant advantage against a Titans defense that ranks 21st in PPR (28.6), 17th in QCR (14.5) and 26th in TIP (2.3).
The Colts wide receivers posted 58.4 fantasy points against the Titans in their first matchup in Week 11. That was the most wide receiver fantasy points Tennessee allowed in a contest this season and indicates Indianapolis knows how to attack this secondary. Add it up and Rogers and Inman are worth taking a chance on as flex options.
Cleveland Browns (at Baltimore Ravens)
After the Ravens shut down the Chargers offense last week, the general assumption for this week's battle against Cleveland is that Baltimore's defense will hold the Browns in check.
The pass-blocking metrics don't agree, as they point in the opposite direction for this matchup. Cleveland leads the league in my post Week 16 pass-blocking grades due to ranking fourth in PPR (20.8), third in QCR (7.4), first in sack rate (1.8) and fifth in TIP (2.3).
Baltimore does have a powerful defense but their pass rush ranked 13th in that aforementioned set of grades. The Ravens have posted a league leading total in PPR (41.6), but they also rank 29th in QCR (9.8) and 17th in sack rate (6.4).
Another interesting factor in grading this contest is that the Ravens allowed 342 passing yards against the Browns in their first meeting in Week 5, a total that is the second highest passing yards mark Baltimore has allowed this season. The Ravens also gave up 12.2 yards per completion in that contest, which is the highest total they have allowed this year.
What makes that even more impressive is those numbers were achieved while Cleveland allowed a 34.7 percent PPR against the Ravens. That was par for the course back then as the Browns gave up a PPR of 32 percent or higher in six of their first eight games, but Cleveland hasn't allowed a PPR of 25 percent or higher in any game since then.
This improved pass blocking should help Baker Mayfield match or surpass the 18 fantasy points he posted against the Ravens the first time out, which makes him a legitimate QB1 contender. Jarvis Landry should be able to land in WR3/flex territory and David Njoku ought to be able to post consecutive double-digit point games for the first time since Week 7.
Least favorable matchups
Tennessee Titans (vs. Indianapolis Colts)
The Titans don't have many bona fide fantasy starters under the best circumstances, but of late that number has dropped nearly to zero. Corey Davis is in a slump, with three straight games of fewer than eight fantasy points. Marcus Mariota is in a similar scoring situation, as he has posted fewer than six fantasy points in each of the past three games.
Pass blocking is a major impediment for these two, as the Titans rank 30th in my pass blocking grades. None of their main metrics rank well, as Tennessee places in the bottom third of the league in PPR, QCR, TIP and sack rate.
That is not a favorable place to be against a Colts defense that ranks fifth in my pass rushing grades due in part to rating seventh in PPR (33.2) and eighth in sack rate (7.8).
Combine these two sets of metric factors with the recent struggles for Davis and Mariota and it becomes clear that every Titans player outside of Derrick Henry should be kept out of fantasy lineups this week.