The fantasy blocking breakdown series reviews the impact that run and pass blocking have on fantasy football performance, using methodologies detailed here.
This week's fantasy blocking breakdown centers on quarterbacks by taking a closer look at how the Week 16 performances affect the Week 17 fantasy values of Tom Brady, Baker Mayfield and Nick Foles.
Nick Foles' immunity to pass-rush pressure gives him superb upside potential
Most fantasy managers weren't going to put Foles into their lineups in Week 16 following his mediocre 9.3-point showing against the Rams in Week 15.
Those managers now have to consider whether to start Foles in Week 17 after he racked up 30.9 points via 471 passing yards and four touchdowns against a strong Texans defense.
The key for Foles in that contest was connecting on vertical passes (aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield). His 23.4 vertical yards per attempt (YPA) led the league in Week 16. A lot of this was due to Philadelphia's stout pass blocking on those throws, as Foles faced pass-rush pressure on only 9.1 percent of his vertical pass attempts, a pace that ranked third in Week 16.
Fantasy managers can also take solace in the fact that Foles ranks second in vertical YPA while under pressure over the past two weeks (23.0).
All of these traits should come in quite handy in a Week 17 matchup against a Washington defense that ranks 18th in overall PPR (29.4) and 30th in PPR on vertical passes (18.9) since Week 12.
It is never a good idea to expect a player to post 30 points in back-to-back weeks, but given the number of positive elements in Foles' case, the odds are very good that he posts 20-plus points against Washington. This makes him worth slotting in the lineup as an upside start in many leagues. Since he is available in nearly 80 percent of ESPN leagues, he could make for quite the championship game pickup.
What in the world happened to crush Tom Brady's fantasy value?
One of the biggest quandaries for much of the 2018 season has been whether Tom Brady belongs in a fantasy starting lineup. During the second half of the season it became clear that he had fallen to the QB2 tier and shouldn't be a starter in most leagues. His five points against Buffalo on Sunday, a total that was tied for the 14th-lowest of his career, may have been the closing argument in that case.
Two elements made yesterday's performance so surprising. The first was New England allowing a 38.5 percent pass pressure rate (PPR) against Buffalo, a total that was the highest the Patriots have allowed this season and marked only the third time the Patriots allowed a PPR of 30 or higher. It was a main reason why Brady attempted only two vertical passes, the fewest in a game since at least 2006 (the first season this metric was tracked in the ESPN Stats & Information database).
The subpar pass blocking was a major surprise, as New England came into the contest ranked tied for sixth in PPR allowed from Weeks 8-15 (25.5) and fourth in pass-blocking grades in my Week 16 fantasy blocking review article. A good portion of that prowess was offset by a Buffalo pass rush that ranked fifth in PPR from Weeks 11-15 (33.9).
With Brady and the Patriots facing a Jets defense that ranks 10th in PPR since Week 12 (32.1), it's probably not a good idea to put him in the lineup, arguably even in two-QB leagues.
Is Baker Mayfield a starting prospect in Week 17?
One of the keys to Mayfield becoming one of only 12 quarterbacks to post at least four games of 20-plus points since Week 7 has been the Browns' superb pass blocking.
Cleveland started the season on a very low note in this area, and as recently as Week 9 the Browns ranked 26th in my pass-blocking grades, after placing 21st in PPR (31.7) and 26th in sack rate (8.4).
Since then, the Browns have skyrocketed to the No. 1 ranking in pass blocking in the pre-Week 16 grades. Cleveland ranked fourth in PPR (20.5), second in quarterback contact rate (QCR, 6.8 percent) and second in sack rate (2.4 percent) in that analysis. What made that even more impressive is the Browns gave Mayfield an average of 2.4 seconds in the pass pocket, which ranks fourth. This indicates it wasn't a matter of dink-and-dunk passes throwing off the pass protection numbers, as Mayfield was given quality pass protection for a long time.
This trend continued against the Bengals on Sunday, as Cleveland posted a 22.0 percent PPR (third best in Week 16), a zero percent sack rate (tied for first) and a 9.1 percent QCR (eighth). All of that combined with an average of 2.2 seconds in the pocket to give Mayfield some of the best protection in the league in Week 16.
Doing that against the Bengals' defense is one thing, but can the Browns give Mayfield similar protection against the vaunted Baltimore Ravens defense in Week 17?
Baltimore came into the Week 16 contest against the Chargers ranked first in PPR (44.5), but they also ranked 28th in QCR (9.0), 21st in sack rate (5.8) and 26th in average time before the pass (2.9 seconds). They posted only a 28.6 percent PPR against the Chargers and allowed 2.5 seconds per pass. The Chargers ranked 18th in my pre-Week 16 pass blocking grades, so this wasn't a dominant pass blocking wall that the Ravens faced.
This would seem to point toward the Browns' blocking giving Mayfield a solid chance to equal the 18 points he posted against Baltimore back in Week 5, when Cleveland's pass blocking wasn't as strong as it is today. Rank Mayfield as a potential QB1 and be sure to get him in every two-QB lineup as a QB2.