Matchups are often a driving force behind fantasy managers' weekly lineup decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, you know the first question that comes to mind: Which one has the best matchup?
Ah, but what, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
That's where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchups highlights at each position -- both favorable and unfavorable -- based on those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (Point Per Reception) scoring, though I have analyzed this data for both PPR and non-PPR and have found that the rankings would scarcely change (if at all). These do, therefore, help in either scoring format.
The maps include two measures: The first, "Rk," is my personal ranking of how favorable/unfavorable I consider that positional matchup; the second, "Adj. FPA," reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense held opponents at that position. All data is from the past five weeks' NFL action.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited; not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (at Atlanta Falcons). For all the criticisms of the Cowboys' poor receiving depth at the onset of the season, not to mention the "overpay" for Amari Cooper, Cooper's addition has helped boost Prescott's options, and the third-year quarterback has three games of 20-plus fantasy points in his past four and QB2, QB8, QB18 and QB7 weekly finishes in his active/non-bye weeks in that span. Remarkably, Prescott is available as a free agent in nearly two-thirds of ESPN leagues, even after the Wednesday early-morning weekly waiver run, and it's Prescott, not Eli Manning, Marcus Mariota or Joe Flacco/Lamar Jackson, who makes the most sense as the week's highest-ceiling streaming quarterback choice. A Falcons matchup grants Prescott a couple of advantages: Their defense has afforded an average of 20.7 fantasy points on passing plays alone to Jameis Winston, Manning, Alex Smith and Baker Mayfield in its past four games (over a five-week span around their Week 8 bye) and has been one of the weakest against mobile quarterbacks such as he, with their 0.97 points-per-rushing-play average afforded to the position this season third-most in the league.
Unfavorable matchup: Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears (versus Minnesota Vikings). Look, let's be clear, I like the guy, and I think he's one of the better quarterbacks from a remainder-of-the-season matchups standpoint. The problem, however, is that this is Trubisky's worst of his remaining matchups -- though you might bunch in the Week 17 road rematch against these same Vikings if your league includes that week in its schedule. The recency bias is strong in fantasy sports, and Trubisky's buzz is at a thus-far-young-career high, and after he totaled a second-best-among-quarterbacks 168.1 fantasy points the past seven weeks combined, he's surely going to be locked into a good number of lineups where he shouldn't. The Vikings defense is on quite a roll, having held Matthew Stafford and Drew Brees to a combined 13.4 fantasy points in its two games preceding the Week 10 bye, and while game flow had some say in those results, it's important to note that those two passers averaged 0.22 points per pass attempt, which is well beneath the league's seasonal average of 0.44. What's more, the bye week's rest might have been enough for the team to add linebacker Anthony Barr (hamstring) and safety Andrew Sendejo (groin) to the mix after getting cornerback Xavier Rhodes back into the fold in Week 9.
Running backs
Favorable matchup: Alex Collins, Baltimore Ravens (versus Cincinnati Bengals). His 10.3 carry and 12.3 touch averages in the Ravens' three games preceding the bye probably keep him beneath the "must-start" radar from a volume perspective, but in his defense, that's still far better than the next-most amongst the team's running backs, the 1.7 carries Gus Edwards has averaged or the 5.0 touches Javorius Allen has averaged. Besides, it's worth pointing out that running backs have absorbed hefty workloads in games against the Bengals this season, averaging 23.3 rush attempts (ninth-most in the league) and 29.8 touches (fourth-most). This is one of those games in which the Ravens shouldn't have to throw, throw, throw, as they generally have this season (their 1.8:1 pass-to-run ratio is eighth-highest). The Bengals have allowed the second-most PPR fantasy points per rush attempt to opposing running backs the past five weeks (0.90), with the five most prominent names they faced in that time -- James Conner, Kareem Hunt, Peyton Barber, Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram II -- averaging at least 4.5 yards per rushing attempt and four of them (all but Kamara) totaling at least 85 yards.
Unfavorable matchup: Kerryon Johnson, Detroit Lions (versus Carolina Panthers). As the league's No. 5 rusher with a 5.4 yards-per-carry average but one who rarely gets the football in a short-yardage situation, with only seven of his 103 rushing attempts (6.8 percent) coming from within 1 yard of a first down and/or touchdown, Johnson is more of a boom-bust fantasy option than one to lock in weekly. Considering the Panthers' performance against opposing running backs of late, he's likely to disappoint this week, as they've afforded only 4.2 yards per carry and only one conversion on eight goal-to-go chances the past five weeks. This defense limited Adrian Peterson to 9.7 PPR fantasy points in Week 6, Collins to 12.3 points in Week 8 and Conner to 14.3 points in Week 10.
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: Nelson Agholor, Philadelphia Eagles (at New Orleans Saints). How the Eagles line up their receivers this week will determine who gleans the most favorable matchup, but it was Agholor, not Golden Tate, who remained their primary slot receiver in Week 10 (Tate's debut with his new team). Agholor ran 76 percent of his routes (31 of 41) out of the slot, while Tate ran only seven of his 14 out of the slot, which indicates that the team will probably continue to rotate the two around the formation, with Agholor getting the majority there. The reason that matters is that the one weak matchups point amongst wide receivers facing the Saints is the individual aligned with Marshon Lattimore. The past five weeks, WR1s have managed minus-0.1 Adjusted Fantasy Points against the Saints, while wide receivers as a whole have plus-3.3 against them. Alshon Jeffery is probably going to line up with Lattimore most often Sunday, leaving Agholor and Tate the sneaky-good matchups in a game that should be awfully pass-heavy.
Unfavorable matchup: Emmanuel Sanders, Denver Broncos (at Los Angeles Chargers). The Chargers have played much-improved defense of late, with their 230.2 passing yards allowed per game since the beginning of Week 4 ranking ninth in the league and 41.7 Total QBR allowed second-best in that span. During that time, they've afforded only one game worth at least 15.0 PPR fantasy points to an opposing wide receiver, that being Tajae Sharpe's seemingly out-of-nowhere 17.1 point performance of Week 7. While on paper, cornerback Casey Hayward might appear to be the scariest matchup for an opponent -- and Hayward is absolutely a concern if you're considering fellow Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton -- Desmond King's performance against opposing slot receivers shouldn't be understated. The Chargers, behind King's strong play, have afforded only 14.3 points per game to opposing slot receivers, third in the league. That might prove a problem for Sanders, who has run 62 percent of his routes out of the slot this season.
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: Jordan Reed, Washington Redskins (versus Houston Texans). It wasn't too long ago that the Texans were one of the game's toughest against opposing tight ends, especially in the red zone, but this season, the unit has regressed to the point where this position has proven a particular problem. Nowhere was this more evident than in Week 9, in the Texans' last game, when Broncos tight end Jeff Heuerman totaled 24.3 PPR fantasy points while catching 10 of his 11 targets, with 61 of his 83 yards coming after the catch. Reed remains one of the more heavily targeted tight ends in the game, with his 6.6 per-game average tied for sixth-most at the position this season, so he should be a big part of the team's game plan this week.
Unfavorable matchup: Jared Cook, Oakland Raiders (at Arizona Cardinals). The Cardinals have faced quite a few high-quality tight ends this season but have rarely afforded them big PPR fantasy point totals. Sure, George Kittle totaled 24.0 points in these teams' two meetings (Weeks 5 and 8), but he did that on 15 targets, and Reed's 14.8 points from Week 1 were driven mostly from his scoring one of the two touchdowns the Cardinals have allowed to tight ends all year. This defense did a much better job of reining in Kittle in their most recent meeting (10.7, Week 8) and Travis Kelce (10.6, Week 10) in its past two games, and Cook isn't quite as high-profile a player as either. Even as the Raiders' receiving options have dwindled following the Cooper trade, Cook's numbers haven't seen any sort of significant boost.