According to the ESPN Fantasy projections, the other Super Bowl quarterback looks like the best bet to lead the NFL in passing yards this season with 4,704. OK, so it is no surprise to predict great statistical things for Tom Brady, since he led the league in passing yards last season and boasts some amazing career numbers. However, after Brady, tight end Rob Gronkowski and wide receiver Chris Hogan, fantasy managers lack clarity on the other New England Patriots weapons and whether they truly are worthy of starting in their leagues.
After all, with Julian Edelman sidelined the first four games for a suspension, lots of question marks surround not just the receivers in this offense, but the running backs as well.
At wide receiver, Hogan is being treated as a definite WR2, but it seems relevant to note the 30-year-old, in his sixth season, has not reached as many as 50 receptions or 700 receiving yards in a season, yet he is being treated as a sure thing. Hey, I am among those people doing so, but in what could be a wide-open home affair against the potent Houston Texans, one would think another receiver or two could become relevant in Edelman's absence. By the way, Edelman missed the 2017 season with a torn ACL and has a history of injuries, so he is hardly a lock for WR2 status even when he returns.
Simple math tells us that for Brady to throw for that many yards this season it will be more than Gronkowski, Hogan and Edelman on the receiving end, and someone will likely emerge from the running back rubble to contribute as an occasional fantasy option as well.
Phillip Dorsett and Cordarrelle Patterson should see snaps on the outside and perhaps a few targets on Sunday, and it is quite possible a free agent signs before game time as well. Former Titan/Bear Kendall Wright worked out for the team this week. Gronkowski will always get his numbers, even with special defensive attention, but Brady averaged a league-leading 36 pass attempts per game in 2017, so we must watch to see who else gets the targets and handoffs this season.
For this week, I agree it makes sense with few injuries and no bye weeks to wait things out and see how the Patriots handle their touches, and there is no guarantee that whatever they do on Sunday ends up being repeated in another game, but get ready. For all we know, there could be a mad rush next week for Hill and Dorsett.
Notable Quarterbacks to watch in Week 1
1. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts
2. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
3. Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers
4. Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears
5. Alex Smith, Washington Redskins/ Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
Notes: Luck and his rejuvenated shoulder could play it safe against the Bengals and throw nothing but short, quick passes, but it sure would be nice to see T.Y. Hilton catch a deep pass or two. Fantasy managers overreact to everything, and they have not seen Luck play in a long time. We know he boasts massive statistical upside, but we do not know if the shoulder is 100 percent. ... Nobody wants to hear this, of course, but Mahomes and Garoppolo are being trusted as reliable options based on small sample sizes. I think each will be great, and second-year man Trubisky as well, but they have to prove it. Trubisky should emerge like Rams starter Jared Goff did in his second season, once the team got him reasonable coaches and weapons. Go Trey Burton! ... Smith and Cousins debut for new teams. Each seems underrated to me, notably Smith, last year's No. 4 QB. Um, why can't he be a top-10 fellow again? Cousins did it three years running for this franchise.
Notable running backs to watch in Week 1
1. Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
2. James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers
3. Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
4. Kenyan Drake, Miami Dolphins
5. Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks
Notes: Everyone loves the rookies, and Barkley figures to be special, but it seems to have gone unnoticed that he faces the league's top defense in the Jaguars. Do not panic if he ends up with a mere 40 total yards. He will be someone to trade for, to covet. ... Nobody knows when the unfortunate Le'Veon Bell situation will end with him performing on a field, but Conner presumably gets his chance on Sunday. He is the most added player in ESPN leagues for the past week for good reason, but if you have the room, consider Jaylen Samuels too. ... Mixon did not look good as a rookie or in August. Everyone thinks he will be awesome, but if he does not destroy a Colts defense that always seems shredded by the run, then there will be questions for a short Week 2 (Thursday night). ... Drake battles Frank Gore for touches, which seems weird, while Carson has to hold off Rashaad Penny, the rookie vastly underrated due to a minor injury that has already healed. We also watch how the Redskins, Colts, Titans, Raiders, Browns and other teams divide the running back touches.
Notable wide receivers to watch in Week 1
1. Josh Gordon, Cleveland Browns
2. Odell Beckham Jr., New York Giants
3. Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks
4. Keelan Cole, Jacksonville Jaguars
5. Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers
Notes: Gordon is a bit polarizing in our rankings, but all it takes is one big play to make him a worthwhile WR3 or flex choice. Frankly, I am nearly as interested to see how the Browns handle teammate Jarvis Landry, because I expect 100 catches again and people will panic if he sees only a handful of targets. ... Speaking of polarizing, Beckham is awesome and now super rich, but he missed most of last season after busting an ankle, and this week he matches up with trash-talking Jaguar Jalen Ramsey, who knows he can get inside his head. That is must-see TV. ... Baldwin is dealing with a sore knee and again, faces a difficult matchup in Denver. I doubt newcomer Brandon Marshall plays a major role, but stranger things have happened. ... Blake Bortles has averaged more than 4,000 passing yards the past three seasons, so his receivers matter, and there is little clarity with Marqise Lee out. Whether Cole is clearly the top option or shares with Donte Moncrief, Dede Westbrook and DJ Chark is intriguing. ... As for the Chargers, I think Mike Williams has major upside but acknowledge it is no sure thing in Week 1, as Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin remain factors. I do not expect many targets for tight end Antonio Gates, but perhaps a goal-line look or three. Two catches for 12 yards is nothing, but if one of them is a touchdown, then it matters.