Football analysis has reached a new era in which player participation data has allowed us to analyze, predict and project wide receiver/cornerback matchups.
Though this data becomes exceptionally useful during the regular season, a thorough examination of each team's depth chart can allow us to determine strength of schedule for each wide receiver before the season even begins. Strength of schedule is one of many variables that allow us to generate rankings, projections and draft-day decisions, and WR/CB matchup data allows us to take that analysis to the next level.
For the purpose of this exercise, I've ranked each cornerback unit by focusing primarily on each team's top three corners (offenses had three wide receivers on the field for 76 percent of pass plays last season), while also considering the health, talent and pedigree of each team's additional depth at the position. I also examined teams' "shadowing" strategies to determine how tough each will be in a variety of areas, including clear No. 1, No. 2, left, right and slot wide receivers.
Once I had each cornerback unit ranked and analyzed, I took a look at each offense's 2017 schedule and determined which wide receivers will face the toughest cornerback slates this season.
It's important not to overreact to any one variable when it comes to player evaluation, but this analysis should help you make better decisions (or at least break some ties) on draft day.
For reference, the wide receiver units ranked one through five in last year's edition of this piece finished 29th, 19th, 31st, 25th and 11th, respectively, in fantasy points.
Check back throughout the season for the weekly WR/CB matchup chart and analysis. Note that since many of your leagues won't include Week 17 in the fantasy schedule, only Weeks 1-16 are included in this analysis.
Toughest WR matchups
Biggest downgrade: Dez Bryant
Bryant is perhaps the most affected player in this exercise. The Cowboys are tied with the Rams in terms of having to face the league's toughest cornerback slate for a No. 1 wide receiver. This means Bryant can be expected to face shadow coverage from Janoris Jenkins (twice), Patrick Peterson, Josh Norman (twice), Desmond Trufant, Richard Sherman and potentially Trumaine Johnson. He'll also face the fantastic Broncos and Chargers cornerback duos and will see plenty of Marcus Peters in Week 9. Add that all up and Bryant will face a very good or great corner during 11 of his 15 fantasy-relevant games. Yes, Bryant is a superstar talent, but considering his durability woes, the Cowboys' run-heavy scheme and now this extremely tough schedule, he's a player who should be downgraded to WR2 territory.
The Cowboys' opposition against No. 2, left and slot receivers is about league average (which means Cole Beasley won't be affected), but is toughest against right receivers. This will make life tougher on Terrance Williams, who lined up wide to Dak Prescott's right on 54 percent of his routes last season.
Biggest downgrade: Donte Moncrief
The uncertainty surrounding Andrew Luck's health is enough of a concern for the Colts' offensive prospects, but excuse me while I add more reasons to worry. The team's wide receivers -- led by T.Y. Hilton and Moncrief -- will face the league's second-toughest slate of cornerbacks this season. Indianapolis boasts the league's fifth-toughest schedule against the No. 1 receiver and both perimeter receivers, the third-toughest schedule against the No. 2 wideout and the 10th hardest against the slot.
The latter is actually somewhat of a relief for Hilton, who lined up in the slot on 58 percent of his routes last season. Moncrief spends over three-quarters of his routes outside, which means he's hurt the most here. The Colts play many teams with deep cornerback units, including Jacksonville (twice), Houston, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Denver.
When Hilton is inside, Moncrief also will draw the likes of Johnson, Peterson, Sherman and Jimmy Smith at times. The Colts' No. 3 gig remains a competition between Charles Rogers, Phillip Dorsett and Kamar Aiken, so the tough schedule and depth chart uncertainty makes these guys worth crossing off your late-round flier list in most formats.
Biggest downgrade: Marvin Jones Jr.
This one is trickier to determine because Golden Tate lined up outside on 73 percent of his routes last season, but is a candidate to move inside more often with rookie Kenny Golladay expected to replace Anquan Boldin in three-wide sets. Detroit is set to face the league's third-toughest schedule for slot receivers, fifth toughest against left receivers, eighth hardest for No. 1 receivers and, interestingly enough, the eighth easiest against right receivers. Tate lined up wide to Matt Stafford's right most often last year (41 percent), but more slot work would make his life a bit tougher.
Last season, defenses that chose to shadow Lions receivers leaned toward putting their top corner on Jones. Thus, Detroit's tough slate for No. 1 receivers doesn't bode well for his prospects. Jones lined up on the perimeter 90 percent of the time last year, 49 percent of which came on the left side. Considering we don't yet know exactly how Tate and Golladay will be used, this group should be downgraded only slightly.
Biggest downgrade: DeAndre Hopkins
Houston will face one of the five toughest slates in each department outside of slot receiver, which comes in near the middle of the pack. Hopkins moves all over the formation, but worked on the perimeter 79 percent of the time last year. That heavy usage on the outside only figures to be cemented with Will Fuller V expected to miss the first month or two of the season.
Hopkins will be a candidate for shadow coverage against Vontae Davis, Sherman, Peterson, Johnson and Smith. He'll also face the tough cornerback units in Jacksonville (twice), Cincinnati, New England and Pittsburgh. Jaelen Strong -- and Fuller once he returns -- also will have their hands full on the perimeter. Braxton Miller, meanwhile, lined up inside on 68 percent of his routes as a rookie and might actually benefit a bit from the team's brutal slate against perimeter corners.
Biggest downgrade: Alshon Jeffery
The Eagles spent the offseason rebuilding at wide receiver, but a tough slate is going to make life tough for new go-to receiver Jeffery. The ex-Bears standout will face the league's fourth-toughest slate for a No. 1 wideout. Jeffery can expect shadow coverage from Norman (twice), Jenkins (twice), Sherman and Peterson, and might also draw it against Johnson and the emerging James Bradberry. Add in matchups with the Chargers, Broncos and Marcus Peters, and Jeffery is going to have his hands full nearly every week.
Philadelphia moved its perimeter receivers around often last year, so Torrey Smith should face a fairly average slate opposite Jeffery. The Eagles actually face the 10th-easiest schedule against the slot, which coupled with Jeffery's tough road, helps Nelson Agholor's sleeper appeal a bit.
Toughest slates for No. 1 WRs: Dallas Cowboys, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts
Pierre Garcon is positioned as the 49ers' clear No. 1 receiver, which means he's in line for a lot of shadow coverage by star corners. His schedule includes meetings with Peterson (twice), Sherman (twice), Johnson, Norman, Bradberry, Davis and the strong Giants, Texans and Jaguars cornerback units. It's possible Garcon is bailed out some by working in the slot, but he moved inside only 18 percent of the time in Washington last season, and current 49ers coach/former Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan limited Julio Jones to 27 percent of his routes from the slot in 2016. Garcon should be downgraded.
New Rams No. 1 wideout Sammy Watkins will have his hands full in his first season with the team. Potential shadow matchups include Peterson (twice), Sherman (twice), Jenkins, Norman, Davis and Xavier Rhodes, in addition to meetings with tough cornerback groups in Jacksonville and Houston. The Rams' No. 2 receiver (likely Robert Woods) would then benefit from the league's sixth-easiest slate against No. 2 receivers (facing Justin Bethel instead of Peterson can go a long way).
Toughest slates for No. 2 WRs: New York Jets, Los Angeles Chargers
The Jets' wide receiver depth chart is still being sorted out, but Tyrell Williams seems fairly settled as the Chargers' No. 2 option behind Keenan Allen. Williams will need to deal with some of the best secondary corners in the NFL with the Broncos (twice), Patriots, Giants and Jaguars on tap. For what it's worth, each of those five matchups comes prior to Week 11, which suggests he could be a buy low in time for the fantasy playoffs.
Toughest slates for slot WRs: San Francisco 49ers, Cincinnati Bengals, Washington Redskins, Tennessee Titans, Detroit Lions, Los Angeles Rams
Jeremy Kerley, Tyler Boyd, Eric Decker and Cooper Kupp are the projected slot receivers for the teams listed here and not previously mentioned. Each will face tough opposition in 2017.
Toughest slates for primary left WRs: Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns, Houston Texans, Baltimore Ravens
Antonio Brown is the Steelers' primary left wide receiver (47 percent of his routes), but Pittsburgh's schedule won't lead to many shadow situations against top corners for Brown. Corey Coleman, Kenny Britt, Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace each ran the largest percentage of their routes wide to the left last season, but all four figure to play both sides often in 2017.
Toughest slates for primary right WRs: Los Angeles Chargers, Dallas Cowboys, Oakland Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles, Houston Texans
Michael Crabtree is the Raiders' primary right wideout (51 percent), whereas Amari Cooper is usually to the left (59 percent). Oakland is also tied for the third-hardest schedule for No. 2 receivers, so Crabtree is looking at a tough slate. Yes, he has led the team in most receiving categories the past few years, but defenses have prioritized Cooper when determining shadow game plans.