After a forgettable rookie season in 2015, some wondered whether Chargers running back Melvin Gordon would evolve into the player the team hoped he would be after using a first-round pick on him. After his inaugural campaign, when he failed to score a single touchdown and finished on injured reserve, Gordon became an end zone magnet in 2016, scoring 12 times in 13 games. He broke through. He bounced back. He was awesome.
It was a reminder that often the offseason that can yield the most significant growth in a player's career in the NFL is the one between his rookie and second seasons. Using Gordon as a fitting example and thinking ahead to 2017, below is a look at several players whose fantasy outlook should be improved as they enter their second full season.
Before we dive into this list, it's important to note that the number of second-year leap candidates is -- speaking generally -- thinner than usual, relative to previous years. That isn't to say there won't be second-year players who make a major impact, but we had to dig a bit deeper to find our full list.
Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints
Yes, yes, I know Thomas was a bona fide star as a rookie last season, catching 92 passes for 1,137 yards and nine touchdowns on 122 targets. But the trade of Brandin Cooks cements Thomas as the undisputed top target in what has been the league's top passing offense in four of the past six seasons, which inflates his value for this season. A pile of 150 targets for the season feels like a smart guess for Thomas, and it wouldn't be the first time an elite talent has made a notable jump in the New Orleans offense after his rookie season. Below is a look at fellow pass-catchers who have done similarly with Drew Brees under center in the Big Easy. Thomas could finish as a top-five wide receiver this season.
Paul Perkins, RB, New York Giants
The Giants' faith in Perkins started to crystallize down the homestretch of 2016, as the fifth-round pick compiled 62 carries in the final four games of the regular season. He had zero rushes over 22 yards and didn't find the end zone, but the team showing improved confidence in him was a starting point. This offseason, Perkins' promise was further solidified when the Giants seemingly did not angle hard for a veteran power back after Rashad Jennings was released. This job looks like Perkins' to have. And while we still need to see more from Perkins on the field to have a wholesale evaluation of his ability, he should see favorable looks behind what the Giants hope is an improved offensive line. The G-Men have run the most plays with three or more receivers on the field since 2014 (when current head coach Ben McAdoo was hired as the team's offensive coordinator), leading to a light box defensively. Only 4 percent of the Giants' rushing attempts in 2016 came with at least eight defenders in the box. Production is there to be had for Perkins.
Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Hill blazed through his rookie season, emerging as an All-Pro talent as a return man. That boosted his fantasy relevance, but he's likely to see a mitigated role on special teams in 2017, which actually has a net positive impact on his fantasy value. Hill is a big play waiting to happen, as evidenced in the return game last season. But his volume was just average, with him racking up a total of 83 targets and hauling in 61 passes. With undeniable athletic ability and a wide-open opportunity for passes to be thrown his way after the release of Jeremy Maclin this offseason, Hill should soar past 100 targets and could stay involved in the running game (he had 27 carries last season). The bottom line is he's Kansas City's co-best offensive playmaker (along with Travis Kelce), and the team will be intent on finding him decidedly more touches this season. Even if his touchdown total goes down (a theme for some players in this column), a much steadier offensive role bodes well for his outlook.
Sterling Shepard, WR, New York Giants
Another wide receiver who was already on the fantasy map, Shepard had a prolific rookie season with the Giants by finding the end zone at a ridiculous rate. He caught three-quarters of his nine red zone targets and scored five times. For comparison, Odell Beckham Jr. caught just nine of his 21 targets, perhaps a byproduct of superior players covering him as the team's top player. Yes, Shepard's touchdown proficiency is likely to regress as a player, but his volume is likely to go up compared with his 105 target share from last season. My colleague Jordan Raanan, who does exemplary work covering the Giants, has previously noted that Shepard was regarded by members of the organization as one of the most improved players on the roster this offseason. So, the faith in Shepard is that while his value might not rise dramatically from a raw point-total standpoint, his consistency should rise thanks to what I forecast as a ballooning target total. He had just two games last year with more than five targets -- that figures to go up in 2017. Be sure to monitor Shepard's health, as he suffered a low-ankle sprain early on in camp.
Hunter Henry, TE, Los Angeles Chargers
Like Shepard, Henry had a touchdown-tilted rookie season that could be difficult to sustain. Henry scored on 22.2 percent of his catches last season, a figure he should not repeat this year. Why not? Because his role in the offense should blossom and his targets should rise dramatically. He had nine games last year with two or fewer catches, yet he still managed to produce the sixth-best rookie tight end season in points-per-reception scoring over the past 15 years. At 6-foot-6 and nearly 250 pounds, Henry has an ideal frame to dominate in the red zone, so, while his efficiency in terms of percentage of his catches that result in touchdowns will drop, he's still likely to be a heavily targeted red zone presence. With Mike Williams' season in doubt because of injury, there's even more work available for other Chargers pass-catchers. A 60-catch and six-touchdown season from Henry would not surprise.
Corey Coleman, WR, Cleveland Browns
I'm not going to go as far as to say that 2016 was a mulligan season for Coleman, but his rookie campaign didn't go as planned, especially after a red-hot start. Coleman had seven catches for 173 yards and two touchdowns in his first two pro games before breaking his hand in practice during Week 3. Gone is Terrelle Pryor Sr., who accounted for 25.3 percent of the team's targets last season. And although Kenny Britt looks likely to assume the No. 1 receiver role, Coleman managed 6.9 targets per game in a complementary role last season. Factoring in his health, maturing skill set and a projected growing work load, Coleman should reignite the buzz that surrounded him to begin last year.
Carson Wentz, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
Wentz is going to be a trendy "sleeper" pick at quarterback for a handful of reasons, one of which is: We've seen him look really good before. He was the talk of the NFL during a blazing 3-0 start for the Eagles last year, throwing for 769 yards, five touchdowns and no picks. But more so than anything we saw last year, Wentz's supporting cast makes me feel much better about his prospects. Yes, the team should be more balanced offensively with LeGarrette Blount in the fold, but Wentz doesn't need to attempt the sixth-most passes in the NFL (like last year) to be fantasy efficient (which he still wasn't last year). Alshon Jeffery has an imposing frame, is a red zone nightmare for defenses and has reliable hands. Philly had -- as a team -- the fifth-highest drop rate in the league last year (5.2 percent). Jeffery has a drop percentage of just 2.1 percent over the past three years. The team also added Torrey Smith, whose uncommon speed keeps a defense honest. Quarterback has plenty of depth this year, and Wentz -- who has much work to do after broken-down mechanics played a part in a major second-half regression in 2016 -- will be a hot name on the waiver wire if he shows well early.
C.J. Prosise, RB, Seattle Seahawks
Man, I like all three Seahawks backs this season. Eddie Lacy and Thomas Rawls will handle much of the power back work, but Prosise is one of the most exciting pass-catchers out of the backfield in the league. Despite playing just six games last season, he twice had more than 80 receiving yards, the second most for any running back in the league. The lack of a consistent running game ailed the Seahawks' offense last season, but so did a porous offensive line that I have serious question marks about in 2017. Russell Wilson was pressured on 36.5 percent of his dropbacks in 2016, the highest percentage in the league. A so-so offensive line will likely mean more of Wilson having to elude pressure, which logically leads to him looking for dump-offs at or near the line of scrimmage. Hello, Prosise! He flashed so much ability last year and is a player I'm excited to see this season.
Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans
The NFL is a long season, something any veteran player can attest to. I mention that as a reminder that, even if Henry's role out of the gate in 2017 is not a predominant one, his value as the backup to DeMarco Murray could rear itself more as the season creeps closer to its finish. Murray averaged 4.8 yards per carry on his first 10 carries in a game last season. On carries 11 and beyond, he averaged just 3.9 yards per carry. He is a 29-year-old runner who has played all 16 games in just two of his six pro seasons. Tennessee might carve out a plan early to find ways to both spell Murray and incorporate Henry more, a trend that could increase as the season wears on. For now, he shouldn't be drafted as a starter for your roster -- not by a long shot -- but, in Year 2, expect to see a physically improved Henry for whom you could make a case as the most valuable handcuff in fantasy football.