Back in early January, I posted my initial run of 2017 fantasy football rankings. However, there is a key demographic of the NFL missing from those rankings: incoming rookies.
Since we don't know which teams they will play for, we can't lump them in with the veterans just yet. However, to help you begin to scout the top incoming talent, I've ranked the prospects based on my observations from their college careers and the combine.
Note: Each player's overall rank among rookies appears before his name.
Top fantasy rookie running backs
3. Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU
Comparisons to the best in the business are probably a bit too rampant during the draft process, but as running backs go, Fournette has entered the Adrian Peterson/Todd Gurley/Trent Richardson category of players with elite athleticism, size and upside as a ball carrier. Fournette is 6-foot, 240 pounds with big hands, long arms and 4.51 wheels. The LSU star was dominant during his freshman and sophomore seasons, but an ankle injury limited him to seven games in 2016. He averaged a healthy 6.5 yards per carry last season but benefited greatly from 4.7 yards before contact. Of course, it's reasonable (if not likely) that his ankle limited his effectiveness. Fournette might never be a great receiving back and his pedestrian ability in that area, as well as concerns with his blocking might lead to him standing on the sideline on third down. Despite his limitations as a receiver, his elite upside as a rusher puts him a step ahead of Cook as a fantasy prospect in non-PPR formats.
4. Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State
Certainly as we consider his rookie-season fantasy prospects, Cook is going to draw a lot of comparisons to Elliott. Like the former Ohio State star, Cook can contribute on all three downs, excels as a pass catcher and is a strong bet to play a massive role as a rookie after probably coming off the board in the first round of the draft. Cook is 21 years old and sports a 5-foot-10, 210-pound frame. On tape, he's an explosive and elusive back who is dominant after initial contact (2.6 YAC in 2016) and big enough to work at the goal line. Cook is also a terrific pass-catcher, averaging 14.8 yards per reception on 33 catches last year. On the negative side, Cook had a tendency to cut outside at FSU, which led to a hefty 20 percent of runs leading to negative yardage. He also has struggled with drops and fumbles, and has a handful of off-the-field incidents to his name. Unlike Elliott, Cook isn't near as NFL ready as a blocker. At the combine, questions were raised about Cook's explosiveness after he underwhelmed in the vertical, broad jump, three-cone and short shuttle. At the end of the day, Cook is a potentially elite playmaker who can check the box in the volume, scoring and receiving departments. Even if he's a bit less effective as a rusher, Cook's pass-catching chops move him ahead of Fournette in PPR formats.
5. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford
McCaffrey enters the NFL with a ton of pedigree following an absurdly productive and highly publicized collegiate career. Of course, the high-end production has meant a ton of work (762 touches, including returns during the 2015-16 seasons), which could be viewed as a red flag considering the short shelf life of running backs these days. That's certainly a topic for debate, but one that is not is McCaffrey's high-end FBS effectiveness. The 20-year-old has sufficient size (5-foot-11, 202 pounds) and speed, but truly makes hay with terrific elusiveness and otherworldly vision. He converted nearly three quarters of his third-down carries and only 10 percent of his 253 attempts went for negative yards last season. McCaffrey is also a strong receiver and returner and can hold down the fort as a blocker. He did extremely well at the combine, posting a 4.48 40-yard dash while also dominating the vertical jump, three-cone, short shuttle and 60-yard shuttle. Expect the future three-down NFL back to come off the board late in the first round of next month's draft.
6. Joe Mixon, RB, Oklahoma
If not for his character concerns, Mixon would be a good bet to come off the board in the first round of April's draft. Instead, there's a chance he falls to Day 3, and that's especially the case with so much top-end talent available at the position. Of course, if Mixon gets his shot, it's not unreasonable to think he'll end up the best NFL back in this class. He's built similar to Fournette (6-foot-1, 225 pounds) and is at least one year younger than both Cook and Fournette. Mixon is an explosive runner and an elite pass-catching prospect. He caught 84 percent of his 44 targets and caught five touchdowns last season. Similar to Cook, Mixon struggled with negative runs (21 percent) but made up for it with dominant post-contact production (2.6 YAC). Also a terrific returner, Mixon can contribute in all areas, including at the goal line. Built like and with a similar skillset to Le'Veon Bell and David Johnson, Mixon sports elite fantasy upside.
7. Alvin Kamara, RB, Tennessee
Kamara might not have quite the statistical or athletic upside of some of the backs we already discussed, but he's solid and/or spectacular in nearly all areas. Kamara sports a healthy combination of size (5-foot-10, 214 pounds), power and speed, and his ability as a pass-catcher and returner will put him in the first round discussion during April's draft. Kamara didn't jump off the page statistically last season but was solid across the board and was limited to 143 touches because of a knee injury. In addition to a few knee injuries, character and fumble concerns are the primary red flags facing the 21-year-old. Kamara posted the best vertical and broad jumps among backs during this year's combine.
13. Kareem Hunt, RB, Toledo
If you know me, you know I love elusive backs who produce after initial contact. That's Hunt in a nutshell. Per Pro Football Focus, the 5-foot-10, 216-pound back forced an FBS-best 100 missed tackles on 303 touches during the 2016 season. In turn, he ended up as the site's highest-graded FBS running back. Hunt isn't the most explosive back, but his tape shows a versatile player who is extremely hard to bring down. Relative to the other backs who attended the combine, Hunt was better than average in YAC, third-down conversion rate, negative run rate, rushes of five-plus yards and rushes of 10-plus yards last season. He also caught a prospect-best 93 percent of his targets, which included zero drops on 44 targets. That's even more impressive when you consider his 4.6 average depth of target, which was highest among all running back prospects. Hunt reminds me of Kenneth Dixon, but is even better of a prospect as a rusher. This draft's depth at the position might lead to him sliding a bit -- especially after he ran a disappointing 4.62 at the combine -- but Hunt is a potential three-down back at the NFL level.
17. Samaje Perine, RB, Oklahoma
Whereas most of the backs we've already discussed will be busy in the passing game at the NFL level, Perine's usage will more reflect that of early down grinders like Adrian Peterson, Jonathan Stewart and Michael Turner. Perine lacks top-end speed and quickness, as reflected in his underwhelming combine production, but he's a big (5-foot-11, 233 pounds) and powerful (position-high 30 bench press reps at the combine). He'll do his damage between the tackles, at the goal line and after initial contact. Perine was limited to 11 targets during his final season at Oklahoma, but to his credit, he caught 10 for 106 yards and a score.
18. D'Onta Foreman, RB, Texas
At 6-foot, 233 pounds, Foreman is one of the biggest running backs who will enter the league this year. The 20-year-old is actually pretty quick and athletic for his size but might be limited to early down and goal-line work at the pro level (sounds a lot like what we said about Derrick Henry last year). Despite carrying the ball 323 times last season, he was limited to seven receptions. Foreman's pass-blocking and ball protection (six fumbles last year) are both concerns. On the plus side, his size and rushing ability helped him to run for negative yardage on 9 percent of his carries last year, which was lowest among backs at the combine. Similar to the likes of LeGarrette Blount, Jordan Howard and Jonathan Stewart, expect Foreman to settle in as an effective early down and goal-line grinder. Downgrade him in PPR formats.
30. Donnel Pumphrey, RB, San Diego State
The 2017 running back rookie class is strong, but there's a bit of a sharp drop after the first seven or eight backs (depending on where you decide to draw the line). Pumphrey is the first of the clear niche backs in our rankings, as he projects as a scat back at the NFL level. That's despite the fact that his 349 carries last season tied Brian Hill for most among RBs who attended the combine. Pumphrey is absurdly undersized, as shown by the fact that he was the shortest (5-foot-8), lightest (176 pounds), had the smallest hands (8.5 inches) and had the shortest arms (29 inches) among backs at the combine. That, of course, makes it unlikely that he'll ever be asked to handle workhorse duties at the NFL level. Pumphrey is, however, an effective, elusive rusher, a terrific pass-catcher and a capable returner with absurd cutting ability. He's a good bet to nail down a passing-down/change-of-pace role in the mold of Darren Sproles (you had to know that comp was coming).
31. Jeremy McNichols, RB, Boise State
McNichols is on the short side at 5-foot-9 but weighs 214 pounds and has the ability to contribute on all three downs and in most situations. The 21-year-old back was heavily utilized during his time at Boise State and ended up with 351 touches during the 2016 season. His rate stats weren't particularly impressive, but McNichols did score 23 rushing touchdowns (the most among backs who attended the combine) and convert 69 percent of his third-down attempts. The latter is notable considering McNichols was impressive as a receiver. He caught 37 of 42 targets and averaged 12.8 yards per reception. McNichols isn't particularly fast or powerful, but he is shifty and elusive (he posted above-average times in the 40-yard dash, short shuttle and three-cone at the combine). Similar to DeAndre Washington and possibly even Gio Bernard, McNichols is likely ticketed for change-of-pace and/or passing-down duties at the NFL level, but his three-down skill set will supply him with some handcuff appeal.
41. Chris Carson, RB, Oklahoma State
Everyone is looking for this year's Jordan Howard, so allow me to throw the overlooked Carson into the mix. After watching his tape, I was intrigued to see him at the combine. He's built well at 6 feet tall and 218 pounds, but runs bigger and stiffer that you'd like to see (of course, that was an observation made often about DeMarco Murray). Carson is a tough, downhill runner who lacks top-end speed, but he's extremely elusive. In fact, he rated No. 1 among this year's class in Pro Football Focus' elusive rating last season. Albeit on a small sample of work (82 carries), Carson averaged 6.8 yards per carry and converted 32 percent of his carries into a first down last year. He ran for at least five yards on 55 percent at 10 yards on 27 percent of his attempts, both of which were highest among backs who attended the combine. What pushed Carson over the top was his combine performance. He had the longest arms at the position (33 inches), posted 23 reps on the bench, leaped 37 inches in the vertical and 130 inches in the broad jump (second-longest). Carson isn't even a lock to be drafted, but he has the looks of a potential steal.
42. Brian Hill, RB, Wyoming
Hill turned 20 years old in November and is the youngest running back who attended the combine. That's especially notable when you consider that he led all backs who were at the March event in carries last season (349). Hill converted the heavy usage into 1,860 rushing yards and 22 touchdowns. Although Hill's volume and age are impressive, his 2016 efficiency was not. Hill came in poor or below average in terms of post-contact production, generating first downs, third-down conversions, and the rate at which he created carries of five-plus and 10-plus yards. Hill also brings very little to the table as a receiver, having managed only eight receptions for 67 yards last season. Hill is a big (6-foot-1, 219 pounds), physical back with decent speed and quickness, however, and his youth figures to be attractive to teams in the mid-to-late rounds. Hill did perform well in the quickness and speed drills at the combine, which adds to his appeal.
43. James Conner, RB, Pittsburgh
Conner fits in the same category as Samaje Perine and D'Onta Foreman as a big, power back who will do most off his damage between the tackles at the NFL level. Conner is a tough 6-foot-1, 233 pounds, but doesn't bring much speed or quickness to the table. Granted he didn't get much help from his offensive line (2.9 yards before contact per attempt), but Conner ranked very poorly in negative run rate (20 percent) and rushes of 5 or more yards (34 percent) last season. Despite his size and role as a sledgehammer, Conner is a capable receiver. In fact, he caught 21 of his 25 targets for 474 yards and four scores in 2016. Conner was diagnosed with Hodgkin's lymphoma in 2015, but received treatment and has since been cleared to play. Conner may actually see some time at fullback in the pros, and his role could limit fantasy production to that of a Matt Asiata or Mike Tolbert.
44. Aaron Jones, RB, UTEP
Jones is a physical back with decent size who can contribute as a rusher and pass-catcher. That versatility, coupled with an impressive combine, makes Jones a candidate to be selected late in April's draft. Jones came in with long arms (33 inches), posted impressive scores in the vertical (38 inches) and broad (127) jumps and excellent times in the three-cone (6.82) and short shuttle (4.20). Jones is 22 years old and stands 5-foot-9, 208 pounds. Jones averaged 7.7 yards per carry last season, which was easily highest among backs who attended the combine.
45. Marlon Mack, RB, South Florida
Mack is another player I'm a bit lower on that the consensus. He's a young back (just turned 21) with sufficient size (5-foot-11, 213 pounds), but he shows up as fairly ordinary, statistically, physically and on tape. Mack averaged 6.8 yards per carry last season, but 4.8 came before contact and 19 percent of his runs went for negative yards. Mack ran a sufficient 4.50 40-yard dash at the combine and was fairly ordinary during the other drills. He's also had some trouble with fumbles. Mack will occasionally deliver a big play, but he's likely to settle in as a backup at the NFL level.
49. Tarik Cohen, RB, North Carolina A&T
Cohen is a back who will be targeted by teams eyeing a smaller, quicker back in the mid-to-late rounds of April's draft. Cohen is very undersized at 5-foot-6, 179 pounds. On the plus side, he's an outstanding playmaker with terrific speed (4.42 40-yard dash) and big hands (10.125 inches). Cohen's quickness, playmaking ability and receiving chops are sure to attract teams, but he'll obviously be limited to passing downs and change-of-pace duties, and has little experience as a returner. Keep an eye on him late in PPR rookie drafts.
50. Joe Williams, RB, Utah
Williams showed off his wheels at the combine with a 4.41 40-yard dash and 4.19 short shuttle (both were second-best among backs). He has a sufficient frame (5-foot-11, 210 pounds) and also jumped well in Indianapolis. Williams is one of the oldest incoming backs (23 years old) and doesn't offer much as a receiver or blocker. There are also concerns about his commitment to the game after he briefly retired at Utah. Williams is a tough, strong runner with good speed and quickness, but character and fumble issues, as well as his limitations on passing downs, will likely push him to the later rounds of the draft.
53. T.J. Logan, RB, North Carolina
Logan ran a running back-best 4.37 40-yard dash at the Combine. The scat back is 5-9, 196, and a terrific return man (32.9 yards per kick return last year). Expect him to settle in as a change-of-pace/passing-down back and kick return specialist. Logan converted 86 percent of his third-down carries last season, which was highest among RBs at the combine.
64. Elijah Hood, RB, North Carolina
Hood is a downhill, power back with surprising elusiveness for his size (6-foot, 232). He's good after initial contact and a fine dump-off option in the passing game. There are some things to like here, but considering that he's bordering on fullback status, it's unlikely that he'll ever be positioned for much fantasy production.
65. Jamaal Williams, RB, BYU
Williams has good size (6-foot, 212), but he lacks speed and quickness. He figures to latch on as a reserve power back and special teamer, but doesn't offer much as a pass-catcher.
68. Teriyon Gipson, RB, New Mexico
Gipson is a name to watch for during the final round or two of April's draft. He wasn't at the combine (has an arrest on his resume), but has terrific upside as a play-maker/offensive weapon. Gipson is grossly undersized at 5-7, 168, but is exceptionally elusive and explosive. He averaged an absurd 8.8 yards per carry on 145 attempts at New Mexico last year. He created a first down on 40 percent of his attempts, converted 71 percent of his third down carries, ran for negative yardage on only 10 percent of his attempts and generated 10-plus yards on 23 percent of his tries. All four numbers are terrific.
70. De'Angelo Henderson, RB, Coastal Carolina
Henderson is an intriguing back and might be a bit higher if he wasn't already 24 years old (the average age of our top-10 backs is 21.4). Henderson is 5-7, 208, with small 29-inch arms. He ran a solid 4.48 40-yard dash and is capable as both a rusher and receiver. He's undersized, but quick and is tough enough to produce after contact.
71. Wayne Gallman, RB, Clemson
Gallman is 22 years old and sports a 6-1, 215-pound frame. He's tough, aggressive, downhill runner who will do most of his damage between the tackles and at the goal line. His efficiency stats were fairly poor across the board last season, which is concerning when you notice that he was handed a generous 2.8 yards before contact per attempt. Gallman is a capable pass-catcher, but is unlikely to provide standout production in the department. Many have Gallman as a borderline top-10 back in this class, but I'm not seeing the appeal.
76. Elijah McGuire, RB, UL Lafayette
McGuire racked up 261 touches during the 2016 season, but his effectiveness was underwhelming. Some blame a foot injury, but McGuire also didn't show very well athletically at the combine, especially in the three-cone (third-worst) and short shuttle (worst). He has decent receiving chops, but is otherwise ordinary.
77. Corey Clement, RB, Wisconsin
Clement is a big boy at 5-10, 220, but there's really not a lot to like here. He carried the ball 314 times last season, but was limited to 4.4 yards per carry and his rate stats were poor across the board. He adds very little as a receiver (12 receptions last year), lacks quickness and has durability and character concerns. Capping it all off was a weak combine showing that included a 4.68 40-yard dash and 29-inch vertical.
78. I'Tavius Mathers, RB, Middle Tennessee
Mathers was not invited to the combine despite a highly-productive 2016 season at Middle Tennessee State. The 5-11, 190-pound scat back carried the ball 232 times for 1,561 yards and 17 touchdowns. He averaged 6.7 yards per carry, including 3.1 after contact. He also caught 66 of 78 targets (85 percent) for 633 yards and didn't drop a single pass. Monitor his happenings in PPR formats.
79. Justin Davis, RB, USC
Davis is 21 years old and 6-1, 208. He's a decent athlete and elusive runner, but doesn't offer much as a receiver or blocker. The ex-sprinter and long jumper will get a look as a depth back and returner.
80. Matt Dayes, RB, N.C. State
Dayes has huge hands and is a decent receiver, but that's about where the plusses end. His rate stats were poor across the board at NC State last season, including an average of 4.7 yards per carry. He's 5-9, 205, and posted the worst vertical jump (28 inches) and second-worst broad jump (109 inches) among backs at the combine. Dayes is likely too small, slow and weak to stack up in the pros.
87. De'Veon Smith, RB, Michigan
Big, slow grinder whose efficiency was poor last season. Had a horrendous combine in which he finished dead last in three drills.
88. Jahad Thomas, RB, Temple
Undersized and struggled as a rusher last season. Another player who had a dismal combine. Quick and a talented receiver, however, so could latch on somewhere as a situational pass-catcher and returner.
99. Stanley Williams, RB, Kentucky
Paced all backs with a 4.18 short shuttle in Indy. "Boom" has good wheels and runs with power, but is undersized and projects as a pedestrian change-of-pace option.
100. Dare Ogunbowale, RB, Wisconsin
Not much to offer as a rusher, but a decent pass-catcher. Not particularly fast or quick as evidenced by an underwhelming combine.