Matchups are often a driving force behind fantasy owners' weekly lineup decisions. When choosing between two or more similarly talented players, you know the first question that comes to mind: Which one has the best matchup?
Ah, but what, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
That's where this column comes in. The "Matchups Map" provides a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchups highlights at each position -- both favorable and unfavorable -- based on those statistics.
The maps include two measures: The first, "Rk" (Rank), is my personal ranking of how favorable/unfavorable I consider that positional matchup; the second, "Adj. FPA" (Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed), reflects how far above or below a player's weekly average that defense has held opponents at that position. All data is from the past five weeks of NFL action.
Finally, a caveat: Remember that matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited and not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup: Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins (@DAL). Injuries to cornerback Morris Claiborne (groin) and Barry Church (forearm) have depleted the Dallas Cowboys' defensive depth, resulting in three consecutive games in which their opponent's quarterback exceeded his seasonal average in fantasy points. The capper was Ben Roethlisberger's 28-point explosion in Week 10, which was bookended by his two rather disappointing performances that hinted he probably wasn't even playing at full strength. Cousins dropped 18 fantasy points on this defense when the teams last battled in Week 2, when the Cowboys were quite a bit healthier. Considering the all-around matchups on both sides, this game has shootout potential, and Cousins certainly will be tasked with exploiting the Cowboys' secondary.
Unfavorable matchup: Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (ARI). Will Patrick Peterson shadow Julio Jones? It appears likely, which makes this matchup particularly unappealing for Ryan, who managed just 19 (Week 3) and 14 (Week 5) fantasy points in games in which Jones had issues getting open. In the past five weeks, the Cardinals have made Russell Wilson (9 fantasy points, Week 7), Cam Newton (12, Week 8) and Sam Bradford (8, Week 11) look bad. And while Colin Kaepernick (Week 10) dropped 23 fantasy points against them in Week 10, bear in mind that Kaepernick totaled 11 of the points on rushing plays, something Ryan lacks in his game. Should Tyrann Mathieu (shoulder) return for Week 12, too, Ryan's matchup will only look less appealing.
Running backs
Favorable matchup: Rashad Jennings, New York Giants (@CLE). It sure looks like Jennings has recaptured the throne as the Giants' clear starting running back ahead of Paul Perkins, getting 46 snaps to Perkins' 19 in Week 11, the widest differential between the two since Week 2. Jennings' 21 carries to Perkins' four also marked one of the widest differentials all year. The timing is good for Jennings, who now draws one of the most favorable all-around matchups for any offensive player. The Browns have afforded a 20-point fantasy game to an opposing running back in four of their past five games and have surrendered big scores to "time share" running backs such as Jeremy Hill (24, Week 7), Matt Jones (19, Week 4) and Bilal Powell (13, Week 8).
Unfavorable matchup: Jeremy Hill, Cincinnati Bengals (@BAL). His rest-of-season stock is on the rise following news that Giovani Bernard suffered a torn ACL in Week 11, but Hill's first matchup as the unquestioned starter is one of the worst on his 2016 schedule. Since Week 3, the only running backs to crack double-digits against the Ravens' defense were Matt Forte (25 fantasy points, Week 7) and Ezekiel Elliott (12, Week 11). What's worse, the Ravens play especially tight defense near the goal line, allowing touchdowns on just 19 percent (3 of 16) of opportunities inside their 10-yard line, the best in the league. Hill's 14 touchdowns in those situations since the beginning of 2015 are second-most in the NFL.
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: Allen Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars (@BUF). The Bills have surrendered double-digit fantasy games to an opposing wide receiver in three of their past four games, which might not seem that noteworthy until you consider the three receivers were Kenny Stills (16, Week 7), Chris Hogan (15, Week 8) and Tyler Boyd (11, Week 11). Robinson is a clearly superior talent to all three of them, and he has picked up his play in the past three weeks, totaling 38 fantasy points despite facing tricky matchups in the Houston Texans (18 fantasy points, Week 10) and Detroit Lions (7, Week 11). Robinson should see enough targets and find enough openings this week to post a top-10 performance at the position.
Unfavorable matchup: Tyrell Williams, San Diego Chargers (@HOU). Williams has had a better year than you might think, ranking 18th at the position in fantasy points (92), but a closer look reveals a player who has played almost precisely into the hands of his matchups. Using seasonal data rather than data from the past five weeks, Williams' five best performances came against the fourth-, sixth-, eighth-, 16th- and 23rd-best matchups for a wide receiver, whereas his five worst came against the 13th-, 15th-, 21st-, 32nd- and 32nd-best. The Broncos' defense, which presents the 32nd-best matchup for wide receivers, held him to two fantasy points combined in two contests. A matchup against this Texans defense hasn't graded that much more favorably this season, or in the past five weeks for that matter.
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: Eric Ebron, Detroit Lions (MIN). If there's one facet of the Vikings' defense that has struggled in recent weeks, it's reining in opposing tight ends. Jermaine Gresham (9 fantasy points, Week 10) and Vernon Davis (12, Week 11) caught long touchdown passes against them, and Ebron himself managed a nine-point (16 points in PPR) effort against these Vikings as recently as Week 9. Matthew Stafford will need to find creative ways to move the football against this defense, and Ebron, who has caught 17 passes combined in his past three games, will probably get more looks than usual with his wide receivers probably being kept in check by the Vikings' strong secondary.
Unfavorable matchup: Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs (@DEN). The Chargers two tight ends appear to be the only ones who have solved the riddle that is the Broncos' defense this season. Hunter Henry posted 14 points in Week 6 and Antonio Gates had nine in Week 8, the only totals greater than seven against Denver. Kelce managed just eight fantasy points in two games combined against the Broncos in 2015, despite nine receptions in those contests.