Last season was full of unexpected turns at the running back position, with some backs outplaying their perceived fantasy value (DeAngelo Williams and Danny Woodhead) and others falling well short of expectations (Eddie Lacy and C.J. Anderson).
Which backs are likely to find their way into those bounce-back and drop-off categories this season? This list offers some surprise candidates, starting with a running back who will be at or near the top of nearly every fantasy draft but who should be considered at the top of the drop-off group.
Drop-off candidates
Le'Veon Bell | Pittsburgh Steelers
Bell currently ranks first among running backs and fourth overall in average draft position (ADP) in ESPN leagues, so it is clear fantasy owners are expecting him to return to his 2014 form that saw him post 272 fantasy points in standard leagues and 355 points in point-per-reception (PPR) leagues.
Doing this requires a ton of workload, something Bell has not lacked. Even with his missed games in 2014 and 2015, over the past four years Bell is fifth among all backs in combined collegiate and pro rushing attempts (1,029), eighth in receptions (184), and tied for seventh in targets (240).
The primary impediment that could keep Bell from staying at that elite workload level is the torn MCL and PCL ligaments he suffered in Week 8 last season. ESPN injury expert Stephania Bell notes that overcoming multi-ligament knee injuries is not a given, saying, "You're talking about gross instability at the knee, potentially. This is a very compromised knee."
Bell also has a difficult matchup slate, as the Steelers have five games against teams that placed in the top nine in fewest rushing yards allowed last season (Cincinnati twice, Kansas City, New England and the New York Jets).
Add these issues to Pittsburgh losing one of its top vertical receiving threats (Martavis Bryant) and having the option to give extra carries or receptions to DeAngelo Williams, and the odds are strong that Bell will not quite justify the top overall fantasy running back ranking.
Jamaal Charles | Kansas City Chiefs
Fantasy owners have high expectations for Charles, as well; he is currently considered a top-10 player by ADP in ESPN leagues.
Charles does have a lot of things going for him, but he also has a ton of negatives.
Prime among these is that he is coming off his second ACL injury in the past five years. Last season's injury afforded the Chiefs an opportunity to see how productive their ground game can be in his absence, and that answer does not look to be favorable for Charles.
From Week 6 (the game after Charles' season-ending injury) to the end of the season, Kansas City was sixth in the league in rushing yards (1,495), tied for second in rushing touchdowns (14) and fourth in yards per rush (4.8). The Chiefs also fared well in advanced rushing metrics in that time frame, placing sixth in rushing yards after first defensive contact (605) and fifth in rushing yards before first defensive contact (890).
Numbers of that caliber, along with Charles' durability concerns, are likely to make coach Andy Reid want to divide the workload more than he has in previous years. That should mean more carries for Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West.
Giovani Bernard | Cincinnati Bengals
Bernard was by far the largest outlier in terms of my good blocking rate (GBR) metric, which measures how often an offensive line gives its ball carriers good blocking (roughly defined as when the offense does not allow the defense to disrupt a rush attempt).
Bernard received good blocking on 48.1 percent of his rushing attempts. For perspective, consider that only one other running back was over the 43 percent GBR bar (DeAngelo Williams, 46.1 percent). The Bengals were second last season in team GBR, but their 43.4 percent mark was nearly 5 percentage points lower than Bernard's GBR total.
That means Bernard is very likely to see his GBR regress. Because good blocking rushes average 1.1 fantasy points per carry and bad blocking rushes tally 0.2 points per carry (the 2015 leaguewide totals in each category), a 5 percent GBR decline could mean a drop-off of as many as 20 fantasy points for Bernard.
Barring an injury to Jeremy Hill, Bernard likely won't see a workload increase over his 203 combined rushes and receptions last season, so his path to offset the likely GBR decline may be closed off.
Bounce-back candidates
Eddie Lacy | Green Bay Packers
Lacy came into last season as the top running back in many draft rooms, but his lack of conditioning led to his posting only 109 fantasy points last year, a total that ranked second among Green Bay running backs (behind James Starks, who posted 110 points).
It also led to his posting a 7.9-yard mark in my good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric that measures how productive a ball carrier is when given good run blocking. That total was tied for 24th among qualifying backs (those with 100 or more planned rushing attempts).
As bad as both of those figures sound, things are looking a lot brighter for Lacy in 2016.
In a contract year, Lacy has worked himself into much better shape. The Packers should give him better run blocking, as a spate of injuries that allowed the starting five offensive linemen to play together in only seven games last year helped cap Green Bay at a 37.6 percent GBR (ranked 20th).
Lacy's GBYPA also isn't much of a concern, as he posted a 7.8 GBYPA in 2014 and a 7.9 GBYPA in 2013. This indicates he is more of a volume back than a breakaway back, so as long as the improved conditioning assures a large workload, Lacy should return to his elite RB1 form.
Melvin Gordon | San Diego Chargers
Gordon was one of the most disappointing players in fantasy football last season, going from highly touted rookie during draft time to ranking 56th in running back fantasy points (64).
Gordon may not get back to the Heisman Trophy candidate form he displayed at Wisconsin, but there are a lot of things to like about his 2016 prospects.
Chargers coach Mike McCoy said Gordon's performance during organized team activities shows he has recovered very well from his offseason microfracture surgery, saying, "you would have never known he was injured last year."
San Diego also looks to be changing its run-blocking approach, as new offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt will move the team to more two-back sets. According to ESPN Stats & Information, 416 of Gordon's 631 career collegiate rushes occurred with two or more backs, so this alteration will be a welcome change for Gordon. It also should help him improve upon a 32.8 percent GBR that ranked 36th out of 44 qualifying running backs.