Back in early January, I posted my initial run of 2016 fantasy football rankings.
The regular season had just concluded, which meant we still had a postseason full of data to examine, and free agency and the draft were months away. So was it a waste of time? Of course not, especially considering it's one of the easiest columns I write each year. This year, I ranked more than 200 players and provided a handful of paragraphs analyzing each position. It took me only a few hours. The reason for this is fairly simple: I'm extremely familiar with all of the players. With very few exceptions (Kevin White, Breshad Perriman come to mind), each worthwhile player had been thoroughly analyzed on a weekly basis throughout the prior four-plus months. Yes, some players will improve and others will regress, but we're at a point where we have a pretty good feel as to whether or not a player is great, terrible or somewhere in the middle. In the grand scheme of things, it's not a tough process.
Of course, there is a key demographic of the NFL missing from those rankings: incoming rookies.
Considering that I spend the entire college football season focused on the NFL, I don't dive fully into prospect analysis until after the Senior Bowl. This is obviously a much different animal than analyzing NFL veterans I've been picking apart for months. In fact, I'm basically starting from scratch. Whereas it took me only a few hours to rank 200 veterans, I'll now be spending the same amount of time on the top handful of prospects alone at each fantasy-relevant position.
I watch the tape. I review our team's scouting reports. I consider height and weight. I look at age and 40 times. I check the early rankings from Mel Kiper and Todd McShay. I watch the NFL combine. I visualize how each player would fit into an NFL offense and how that would convert to fantasy points. The list goes on and on.
When all is said and done, I'm left with an initial set of rookie rankings, which is exactly what lies below. Because we won't know until April where each of these players will land, these rankings are best applied to dynasty leagues and rookie drafts. Of course, you can bet that most of the players ranked near the top will make a significant impact in 2016. So get familiar with the names now. It will make ranking them this summer much easier.
The Top 25
1. Laquon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss
Treadwell stands out as the top wide receiver in this class and, not unlike Amari Cooper last season, he will slide right into an every-down role as a rookie. Treadwell is big (6-2/221), strong, has long arms and is already a competent blocker. He's not a burner, but will dominate in the intermediate areas with his body control, playmaking ability and post-catch production. He might not have quite the ceiling, but in terms of style, think Dez Bryant and DeAndre Hopkins. Treadwell doesn't turn 21 until June, so there's a ton of room for growth here.
Logical fits: 49ers, Giants, Saints, Rams, Lions
2. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State
Although he may not have the ceiling of last year's top running back, Todd Gurley, Elliott is easily this year's top prospect at the position. Ready for a three-down role on Day 1, Elliott is a terrific rusher, solid pass-catcher and a borderline-elite pass-blocker. At 6-0 and 225 pounds, Elliott has plenty of size and runs with enough power that he's assured plenty of work near the goal line. There aren't many pro backs who push for 20 touches every week, but Elliott figures to join that list as a rookie, provided he lands on one of the few teams with a major need at tailback. If that happens, expect Elliott to make a significant impact as a rookie. Elliott doesn't turn 21 until July.
Logical fits: Jets, Titans, Texans, Colts, Dolphins
3. Corey Coleman, WR, Baylor
One of the fastest incoming wide receivers, Coleman will be on the radar of teams looking for an explosive offensive playmaker. He averaged 18.4 yards per reception and caught an FBS-high 20 touchdowns (the next closest had 17) at Baylor in 2015. Standing 5-11/194, Coleman is on the small size, which, despite his collegiate success, may cost him scoring opportunities at the NFL level, especially if he doesn't land in a quality passing offense. Of course, as we've seen from players with similar builds and skill sets -- think Emmanuel Sanders and Steve Smith Sr. -- high-end fantasy production is attainable. Coleman will need to cut down on drops and improve his route running, but his big-play ability and inevitable contributions as a rusher and especially as a returner will guarantee him a hefty role right out of the gate.
Logical fits: Bengals, 49ers, Falcons, Bills, Browns, Patriots
4. Josh Doctson, WR, TCU
Doctson is on the lean side at 6-2, 202 pounds, but there aren't many receivers in this draft who can match his athleticism and play-making ability. Doctson ranked out well in nearly every combine event, including top-end performances in the vertical and broad jumps, and the short shuttle. He doesn't have game-breaking wheels, but sports excellent hands and only a few incoming rookie wideouts can match his ball skills and jump-ball ability. Doctson will see plenty of deep balls on perimeter routes and will certainly be busy near the goal line at the pro level. His measurables and skill set remind me of Allen Hurns, but he's also been compared to Justin Hunter and DeAndre Hopkins. Doctson is best served as a secondary target in a similar role to the one Hurns has enjoyed a ton of success in Jacksonville, but he does enjoy a high ceiling. Doctson's 120.6 receiving yards per game were second-most in FBS in 2015.
Logical fits: Lions, Rams, Vikings, Giants, Patriots, Chargers
5. Michael Thomas, WR, Ohio State
A well-rounded, NFL-ready prospect, Thomas has good ball skills and big-play ability. About an inch taller than top-rated Treadwell, Thomas' 6-3/212 frame will generate plenty of targets near the goal line at the pro level. Not quite speedy enough to take the top off defenses (4.57 40-yard dash), a majority of Thomas' damage figures to come in the intermediate and screen game, not unlike the role Demaryius Thomas thrived in with Peyton Manning in Denver. Also a good blocker, run-first teams in need of a starting perimeter receiver figure to give him a long look in the second round.
Logical fits: Rams, Vikings, Falcons, Bills, Patriots, Bengals
6. Sterling Shepard, WR, Oklahoma
Sans high-end speed and standing 5-10, 194 pounds with short arms, Shepard's height/weight/speed combo are going to turn off some scouts, but he more than makes up for it with great hands, quickness and excellent route running. Considering that three wide receivers are on the field for 70 percent of pass plays these days, Shepard's skill set will certainly lead to a significant offensive role as a possession receiver. Per Pro Football Focus, Shepard lined up in the slot on 71 percent of his snaps at Oklahoma last season. Shepard has drawn comparisons to Randall Cobb and Antonio Brown, and he certainly has that upside, but he very well could be destined for a role similar to that of Kendall Wright or Julian Edelman. Shepard didn't show well in the speed drills at the combine, but he dominated in the bench press and vertical jump. The versatile Shepard will also contribute on punt returns.
Logical fits: Patriots, Bengals, Bills
7. Will Fuller, WR, Notre Dame
Fuller's 4.32 40-yard dash was fastest among wide receivers who attended the combine, but his pedestrian performance in all other categories furthers concerns that he's a one-trick pony. Among the top incoming deep threats, Fuller has drawn comparisons to the likes of DeSean Jackson and John Brown. Considering his tiny frame (6-0, 186 pounds) and offensive role, the comps make sense, but that doesn't necessarily mean he sports the same ceiling. Fuller's hands need work (he led the FBS with 21 drops the past two years, per Pro Football Focus), and his ball skills are far from spectacular. Fuller's lean frame makes him a liability as a blocker and in press coverage. He obviously has some road blocks, but he plays tough for his size, which figures to lead him to a No. 2 gig at the NFL level. Of course, the floor here is that of a situational deep threat. Fuller's big-play ability puts him in play on Day 1 of April's draft.
Logical fits: Bills, Bengals, Patriots, Eagles, Chargers
8. Leonte Carroo, WR, Rutgers
Carroo doesn't stand out in the size (6-0/211) or speed (4.50 40-yard dash) department, but he's a well-rounded receiver who can play on the perimeter and in the slot. He sports solid hands, is a good route runner and has excellent ball skills. Targeted deep quite often at Rutgers, Carroo averaged a massive 20.7 yards per reception in 2015. His game reminds me of DeAndre Hopkins and, although he's likely to settle in as a No. 2 receiver, there's plenty of upside here.
Logical fits: Rams, Vikings, Giants, Patriots, Chargers
9. Derrick Henry, RB, Alabama
An absolute tank at 6-3, 247 pounds, the 2015 Heisman Trophy winner has more top-end speed than you'd expect from such a large back. The combination should be enough to attract a running back-needy team on Day 1 or 2 of April's draft. Henry obviously projects as a power back, which means he'll be busy on early downs and at the goal line. That's good news in terms of touchdown upside, but it's unlikely that he will do much on passing downs. He's nothing special as a blocker and offers very little as a pass-catcher (he caught 11 passes at Alabama last season). As it did with the likes of Brandon Jacobs and LeGarrette Blount, this will impact Henry's fantasy upside, especially in PPR formats. Of course, his freak athleticism makes him well worth your attention in the first round of your rookie draft.
Logical fits: Jets, Titans, Texans
10. Kenneth Dixon, RB, Louisiana Tech
Although Dixon shows up on tape as good but not great as a rusher, a deeper look at his numbers shows something interesting. Dixon ran for zero or negative yards on 25 percent of his carries last season, which is worst among backs likely to be drafted. That sounds bad, but considering that he averaged a prospect-high 1.2 yards before contact and a prospect-high 3.6 yards after contact, it's very possible that poor offensive line play is a big factor here. Nonetheless, a highly productive career at Louisiana Tech has Dixon on the radar as an early-to-mid-round selection. He is 5-10, 215 pounds and profiles as an explosive runner who is elusive in space. The area in which Dixon really stands out is on passing downs and that's where he might find his niche at the pro level. He is a terrific receiver and quality pass-blocker. Improved vision, patience and agility as a rusher could lead Dixon to an every-down gig, but he just as well could be destined for a glorified third-down role, much like Dion Lewis or Giovani Bernard.
Logical fits: Seahawks, Raiders, Jaguars, Dolphins, 49ers
11. Jordan Howard, RB, Indiana
Tevin Coleman's replacement at Indiana, Howard isn't quite as explosive, but is quite a bit bigger than his predecessor. Standing 6-foot, 230 pounds, Howard is a between-the-tackles bulldozer who will do a lot of damage after contact. He converted 32 percent of his carries into first downs and ran for zero or negative yards on only 10 percent of his carries last year. Both are terrific rates. Howard has drawn comparisons to Arian Foster, but he has work to do as a receiver and pass blocker if he hopes to work his way into a three-down role at the NFL level. Of course, the ex-Hoosier is a talented enough runner that he could manage significant production as an early-down and short-yardage back. Think Michael Turner or a taller Alfred Morris.
Logical fits: Patriots, Jets, Texans, Titans
12. Paul Perkins, RB, UCLA
A scat back out of UCLA, Perkins projects as a committee back at the NFL level. He stands at 5- foot-10, 208 pounds, which puts him a bit on the lean side. His best traits are his elusiveness and vision, and he's productive after contact. According to Pro Football Focus, his 73 forced missed tackles as a rusher trailed only Derrick Henry in the FBS last year. He adds value as a quality pass-catcher, but will need to work on his pass blocking. Similar to Duke Johnson Jr. a year ago, it's unknown if Perkins has the size and blocking chops to hold up as an NFL feature back. He's more likely to end up in a time-share.
Logical fits: Broncos, Colts, Dolphins, Packers, Redskins, Jaguars, Raiders
13. C.J. Prosise, RB, Notre Dame
A converted wide receiver and safety, Prosise played only one season of running back at Notre Dame. At 6-0, 220 pounds, he's one of the biggest incoming backs. Although he is more power than finesse, Prosise has the wheels (4.48 40-yard dash) to make explosive plays. He averaged a prospect-high 6.6 yards per carry last season, but a massive 4.5 of that came before initial contact. Of course, 24 percent of his attempts went for 10 or more yards, which is exceptional and shows his big-play ability. Likely a product of inexperience, Prosise has struggled with both fumbles and pass protection. Considering his intriguing size/speed combo and breakout senior campaign, Prosise is sure to attract a team in search of a high-ceiling prospect on Day 3 of the draft.
Logical fits: Colts, Cowboys, 49ers
14. Braxton Miller, WR, Ohio State
Originally a quarterback at Ohio State, Miller converted to wide receiver/H-Back late in his collegiate tenure. Considering that he has the early looks of a Day 2 pick, the conversion obviously went well. A lack of experience at the position makes him a raw prospect, especially as a route runner, but he proved explosive in this area at the Senior Bowl. Of course, any drawbacks are easily offset by his frame (6-1/201), elite athletic ability and speed. Miller underwhelmed in the 40-yard dash at the combine (4.50), but dominated in the agility drills, pacing the position in both the short and long shuttle. Miller struggled with fumbles and injuries (albeit many while at quarterback) at Ohio State, which will be another red flag for scouts. Considering his raw skills, the sky is the limit for Miller, but expect him to start out as a gadget player with most of his work coming on end arounds, screens and occasional deep shots. It's also worth noting that Miller turns 24 in May and is entering the league a bit older than his counterparts.
Logical fits: Bengals, Browns, Bills, Titans
15. Pharoh Cooper, WR, South Carolina
It's hard to watch this kid and not think of Randall Cobb. They're a similar build, play a comparable role, and are extremely explosive. Cooper stands at 5-foot-11, 203 pounds and will contribute as a receiver, ball carrier and impact punt returner at the pro level. His small frame won't allow a ton of work near the goal line, which will limit scoring opportunities, but his electric playmaking skills combined with some refined route running will lead to a long NFL career as a No. 2 target. Cooper averaged 8.0 yards after the catch last season, which is highest among wide receivers likely to be selected during the first half of April's draft.
Logical fits: Falcons, Bills, 49ers, Bengals, Browns, Patriots
16. Kenyan Drake, RB, Alabama
Especially in PPR leagues, Drake is going to be one of my favorite targets in rookie drafts this season. Already drawing comparisons to Reggie Bush and Charles Sims, Drake sports 4.45 wheels and stands 6- 1, 210 pounds. That's certainly an intriguing size/speed combo. Although he is unlikely to ever be a three-down back or do much damage at the goal line, he has the speed, burst and elusiveness to be dominant in the passing game. Drake's 4.21 short shuttle was second best among backs who participted at the combine. With teams throwing the ball more than ever, Drake won't have trouble playing a significant role, especially when his chops as a return man are added to the mix. Make sure he's on your radar in the second round of your rookie draft.
Logical fits: Seahawks, Jaguars, Raiders, Dolphins, Colts
17. Alex Collins, RB, Arkansas
Following a productive career at Arkansas, Collins has the looks of a second- or third-round pick in this year's draft. Although he sports sufficient size for the position at 5-10, 217 pounds, Collins is more finesse than he is power. He's fast, agile and has good vision, which could help him carve out a role as a returner. Collins needs work as a blocker, is inexperienced as a receiver (13 receptions in 2015) and has struggled with fumbles (five last season). His combine performance won't help his cause, as he posted a short vertical and broad jump to go with a below average 40-yard dash. Collins figures to settle in as an early-down back at the pro level.
Logical fits: Texans, Colts, Jets, Titans
18. Devontae Booker, RB, Utah
Although he doesn't jump off the tape like some of his counterparts, Booker will attract teams looking for a well-rounded running back in the middle rounds. Booker has good vision and is an effective downhill runner who is big enough (5-11/219) to potentially help out near the goal line. He's also a quality pass-catcher and effective pass blocker, who can play on all three downs. He's not particularly fast, however, and will need to overcome durability concerns. Lacking some explosion, only 34 percent of his runs went for at least 5 yards during his final season at Utah. Set to turn 24 this summer, Booker is three years older than Ezekiel Elliott and a year or two older than most of the other backs who will be drafted. In the short term, I prefer him to Collins, but his age knocks him down in dynasty rankings.
Logical fits: Texans, Colts, Jets, Titans
19. Tyler Boyd, WR, Pittsburgh
One of this year's most intriguing wild cards at the position, Boyd had a highly productive career at Pittsburgh, but was a letdown at the combine. At 6-foot-1, 197 pounds, Boyd could use some bulk, which may improve his blocking, but won't help his pedestrian speed (4.58 40-yard dash). He fumbled five times last season, which is the most among incoming wideouts. Boyd offsets some of his limitations with strong hands, route running and post-catch production. Having lined up in the backfield, out wide and in the slot, Boyd is a versatile player. A candidate for a role similar to that of free agent Mohamed Sanu, Boyd will spend most of his time at receiver, but figures to handle some carries, returns and maybe even throw a pass or two on a trick play. Boyd is likely to eventually emerge as an every-down receiver, but his versatility will make him valuable right out of the gate. His fantasy ceiling very well could be limited by a significant amount of work near the line of scrimmage and not quite enough near the goal line. Boyd's 2015 average depth of target (9.4) and yards-per-reception (10.2) marks rank on the extreme low end among wide receiver prospects.
Logical fits: Bengals (natural replacement for Sanu), Vikings, Bills, Browns
20. Rashard Higgins, WR, Colorado State
Identical to Boyd in nearly every measurable tracked the the combine, Higgins is a lean 6-foot-1, 196 pounds, and has the tools to produce at a high level in the pros. Higgins was absolutely dominant during his 2014 campaign at CSU, hauling in 96 receptions for 1,750 yards and 17 touchdowns. He wasn't quite as productive this past season, but still put up 1,062 yards and scored eight times. Higgins has excellent hands, is a smooth route runner and can do damage with the ball in his hands. Despite a disappointing combine, Higgins has serious upside.
Logical fits: Giants, Bills, Bengals, Patriots, Chargers
21. Jonathan Williams, RB, Arkansas
One of this year's top boom/bust prospects, Williams is a potential workhorse at the NFL level. He stands 5-foot-11, 220 pounds and was highly productive at Arkansas before missing the entire 2015 season with a foot injury. The injury is obviously going to concern teams, but it could make Williams one of the year's top values. A power runner who will do most of his damage between the tackles and after contact, Williams is also a good pass blocker and competent receiver. Considering his three-down potential and a strong likelihood that he'll be busy near the goal line, Williams will be an intriguing flier in rookie drafts. He reminds me of T.J. Yeldon, who was busier than you realize as a receiver as a rookie.
Logical fits: Cowboys, Colts, Jets, Titans
22. Keith Marshall, RB, Georgia
A combine standout, Marshall ran the quickest 40-yard dash (4.31) and posted the most reps on the bench (25) among running backs. A five-star prospect out of high school, Marshall carries a major injury red flag after a torn ACL derailed most of his 2013 and 2014 seasons. He managed only 72 touches in 11 games behind Nick Chubb and Sony Michel in 2015. A size/strength/speed freak, Marshall has tremendous upside, which makes him a worthwhile mid-round addition to your squad.
Logical fits: Bears, Texans, Colts, Cowboys, Redskins, Patriots
23. Hunter Henry, TE, Arkansas
The consensus top tight end prospect this year, Henry has a shot to go in the first round, especially considering this year's weak class at the position. His pro day will be important, however, after his arms and hands measured up poorly at the combine, he managed only 13 reps on the bench and he didn't participate in any additional drills. A quality pass-catcher, Henry has outstanding hands (zero drops on 74 targets last season), excellent ball skills and enough speed to create separation from linebackers and safeties. He's a work in progress as a blocker, but figures to spend a lot of time running routes from the slot. Rookie tight ends rarely make a fantasy impact, but Henry is the complete package and figures to land on the TE1 radar as soon as 2017.
Logical fits: Falcons, Saints, Giants, Broncos, Colts
24. Jared Goff, QB, California
The favorite by many to be the first quarterback drafted this year, possibly as early as No. 2 overall, Goff has a good shot to be under center in Week 1 of the 2016 season. At 6- foot-4, 215 pounds, Goff is a pocket passer with sufficient size and a great arm. His accuracy is good, but could be better, and he handles pressure very well. Goff shows good touch and his cannon arm produces accurate deep balls. He isn't going to add anything with his legs and will need to improve his decision-making, but the latter is a common trait for most rookie passers. Goff has small hands and isn't very athletic -- he performed poorly in the vertical jump and short shuttle at the combine -- but he makes up for it with pristine passing ability. One of the youngest quarterbacks who will be drafted this year, Goff won't turn 22 until October. He tossed 78 touchdowns and 20 interceptions during his final two seasons at Cal. He has the look of a franchise quarterback and will thus be well worth consideration in the second round of rookie drafts.
Logical fits: Browns, 49ers, Eagles, Rams, Texans
25. Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State
Although Goff is this year's consensus No. 1 rookie quarterback, there are plenty who prefer Wentz. He's bigger, older, much more athletic and has shown exceptional accuracy. Wentz stands 6- foot-5, 237 pounds and turns 24 in December. Although it's a step down from some others who will be selected this year, he has plenty of arm strength to go with his top-notch accuracy. Wentz threw the ball well at the combine and came in above average in nearly every drill, especially the three-cone, short shuttle and broad jump. Similar to Blake Bortles or Alex Smith, Wentz figures to add a few hundred rushing yards each year, but some offensive coordinators may choose to take bigger advantage of his dual-threat ability. Either way, the rushing production is sure to add to his fantasy appeal.
Logical fits: Browns, 49ers, Eagles, Rams, Texans