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Read below for the fantasy basketball Forecaster
In weekly transaction leagues, the schedule is one of the most important factors in determining how to fill out your fantasy basketball lineups. All fantasy teams have a hierarchy of player calibers, with a set of "best players" surrounded by a cast of lesser but still productive players from which to draw your weekly starting lineup.
All things being equal, a manager would start their best players every week and fill out the rest of their lineup based on things such as matchups. However, all things aren't equal.
The schedule changes the bottom line, because teams can play a different number of games, against a different caliber of opponents, with different breakdowns of home vs. road, back-to-backs, rest nights, etc. All of these things matter, and as I've seen this season, they often matter more than a player's caliber.
For example, would you rather get two games of a great player at 35 minutes per night against tough competition, or four games of a lesser player at 30 minutes per night against high-paced, weak competition? When looking at it quantitatively, it's surprising (to me) how often the correct answer is actually the lesser player -- yes, based on schedules, sometimes even star players should sit for a week.
Thus, below, we have the Forecaster, which provides a scheduling and matchup tool to help you make better-informed lineup decisions for the upcoming week.
We also take your weekly prep to another level with my new weekly projection rankings. Here, you'll find my top-150 weekly rankings, based on ESPN standard points-league scoring, so you can compare players to determine which players to start, sit, stream or drop for the week ahead. I also provide several typical starters whom you might want to sit, and several bench/free agents whom you might want to stream.
Without further ado, let's check out the Forecaster.
Matchup ratings are based upon a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup). These are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's season-to-date and past-10-games statistics, opponents' numbers in those categories and performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played. The column to the left lists the team's total number of games scheduled, as well as home games, and lists the overall rating from 1 to 10 for that team's weekly schedule.
The week ahead
This is a unique week in that all 30 teams have either three or four games. This is a big departure from what we've seen in recent weeks, when several teams played two, five or even only a single game during the session. This week, there are 14 teams with four games and 16 teams with three games, almost split down the middle. As a result, game totals are less likely to push teams to outlier Forecaster scores, and more emphasis is put on matchup quality, team unit and opponent strength.
The Philadelphia 76ers scored a perfect 10 on the Forecaster, and both the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Toronto Raptors scored 9s, with four games each. The 76ers have three games at home and no back-to-backs, while both the Thunder and Raptors have one back-to-back amid a schedule featuring primarily fast-paced teams. All three of these teams offer solid streamer options and/or starting players who often would be borderline starter/bench options for your squad.
At the other end of the scale, the Atlanta Hawks and Detroit Pistons each scored 1s on the Forecaster, the Chicago Bulls and New York Knicks scored 2s and the Brooklyn Nets and Portland Trail Blazers scored 3s, with all six teams playing three games. The Memphis Grizzlies also scored a 3, but they actually have four games. Their grit-and-grind style produced a low score, even in a week during which they play a couple of relatively weak defensive teams such as the Trail Blazers and the Houston Rockets.