The marathon NBA season somehow moves so quickly. It doesn't seem so long ago when we were focused on small, early-season samples, and now we're 80 percent of the way into the campaign. The Player Rater is assuredly mature at this advanced stage in the season, so Emmanuel Mudiay's presence in the top 15 among point guards over the past seven days is quite encouraging.
Call it the "Danilo Effect" -- in the wake of Danilo Gallinari's serious ankle injury, we've witnessed Mudiay average 18 points, 5.9 assists and hit 41.9 percent from 3-point range over the past seven starts. The rookie has averaged 34.75 fantasy points on DraftKings in 32.4 minutes over this stretch. Maybe it's a short-lived fluke (the strong shooting metrics likely are), but then again Mudiay's usage rate is 27.1 percent over the past seven games to go with nearly a 30 percent assist rate. Which is to say, both the surface fantasy metrics and advanced numbers are in agreement that a volume-driven breakout could be in the works.
The "Danilo Effect" in Denver also extends to shooting guard Gary Harris, who has averaged a robust 36.4 minutes en route to averaging 16.1 points, 1.3 steals and 1.6 3-pointers over the past seven starts. This is what happens when a team's leading scorer goes down; we are tasked with quickly identifying the key beneficiaries. Harris is still available in over half of ESPN leagues and is 18th on the Player Rater over the past seven days among shooting guards.
The fantasy playoffs begin this week in ESPN standard leagues, which also means we're into the dog days of the season, as injuries and rotation shifts sweep the league. The Grizzlies have been decimated by multiple serious injuries to key stars. Lance Stephenson is available in over 60 percent of ESPN leagues and has averaged 25.5 points, 7.5 boards and five assists in 34 minutes per game over the past two games, as Memphis scrambles to find healthy bodies. The scoring will surely come down for Stephenson, but rich board and assist rates should prove enduring as long as the minutes sustain. With Mike Conley ailing, Stephenson has a usage rate of 26 percent over the past two games and an offensive rating of 134 to go with a rich 22.3 percent defensive rebounding rate and point guard-like 29.9 percent assist percentage.
We can't trade or reshuffle the core of our roster in most season-long leagues, but we can aggressively and proactively hunt the wire for meaningful additions such as Harris and Stephenson. Those who went after Phoenix's Alex Len netted a fantasy star for the stretch run, and it's possible Mudiay or Stephenson could follow that path.
Matchup ratings are based upon a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup). These are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's year-to-date and past 10 games' statistics, their opponents' numbers in those categories and their performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played. The column to the left lists the team's total number of games scheduled as well as home games, and lists the overall rating from 1-10 for that team's weekly schedule.
Touch time
The NBA's touch data helps reveal the busiest ball handlers in the league. It's no surprise to see Russell Westbrook lead the league in touches per game (98.5 touches) over the past three weeks. It is somewhat telling to see Pau Gasol (96.3) third in the league in touches over this stretch, in a list that is often reserved for ball-dominant starting point guards. Gasol is basically Draymond Green with blocks and more scoring prowess at this stage, averaging more touches over the past three weeks than the likes of Kyle Lowry and John Wall. If Gasol can stay healthy, he has league-winning usage ingredients on his side.
We also find Giannis Antetokounmpo (93.7) just behind Chris Paul (94.6) at eighth in the league in touches per game over the past three weeks. Now playing a point-forward role for Jason Kidd, the Greek Freak is arguably a top-12 asset for the remainder of the season. We'll likely be talking about him as a first-round fantasy pick for next fall. Fittingly, Mudiay is just behind LeBron James at 18th in touches per game over this span, another confirmation stat for his busy role since Gallinari went down.
Influential injuries
Almost all of us played traditional, season-long fantasy basketball before ever delving into daily fantasy basketball. In many ways, our knowledge from redraft research informed our interest in daily, so it's only natural that we can learn how to become better season-long competitors from the daily side of things. One of the key factors in daily hoops is paying close attention to lineup shifts and injuries. Recognizing the absence of Conley and its influence on Stephenson's upside over the past two games proved quite profitable in DFS, as the market simply wasn't accounting for this sudden surge in usage and production.
We can apply this real-time approach to our redraft leagues. Don't be afraid to aggressively stream and swap with your lineup when injuries occur. Sometimes windows for production are truly just for a few nights, or even a single game, as we saw recently with the Pelicans' Toney Douglas. With the playoffs upon us, taking a more granular view of lineup news can help us maximize output in weekly, head-to-head competition.
Well positioned
With an eye on gaining every possible advantage for the fantasy playoffs, let's employ some daily fantasy matchup data -- from Rotowire -- to help us identify which teams are struggling to defend specific positions over the past 10 games.
Guard: The Suns are the softest team against point guards over the past 10 games; Phoenix allows the most fantasy points to the position over this stretch on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The Lakers aren't far behind at 29th in guarding the position over the past 10 games, but it's the Warriors coming in at 28th against fantasy point guards over this stretch that proves compelling. Lining up starting point guards against Golden State could prove prudent. Meanwhile, the Nets, Sixers, Bulls and Kings round out the seven softest teams against the point over the past 10 games.
The Pelicans' decimated backcourt has ceded the most fantasy points per game on FanDuel to shooting guards over the past 10 games. The Lakers, Suns, Kings and Nets round out the five most inviting matchups for enemy 2s. We also find the Hornets, Rockets, Bucks and Blazers among the 10 most generous matchups for opposing shooting guards over the past 10 games.
Forward: The Thunder have one of the weakest defensive ratings since the break as a team and are 30th in fantasy point allowance to forwards on FanDuel over the past 10 games. For further proof that fast-paced agendas can help induce fantasy fun, the Warriors, Kings and Rockets are all among the seven softest matchups for opposing forwards.
Center: The Blazers have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing pivots over the past 10 games. Soft interior defense is finally surfacing with big box scores from Portland's opposition. Similarly, the Mavericks have been fallible inside all season. The Sixers rank last in rebounding percentage and allow the third-most fantasy points to opposing centers over the past 10 games. When it comes to streaming at center, let's target the Bucks, Pelicans, Mavs, Blazers and Sixers when possible.
Player Pickups: Identifying values in both ESPN leagues
Undervalued assets available in at least 40 percent of ESPN leagues at each position.
Point guard: The Bucks' Jerryd Bayless (owned in just 25.6 percent of ESPN leagues) could prove valuable for the final leg of the season. Michael Carter-Williams is done for the season and Bayless has played at least 37 minutes in the past three games as of press time. Jason Kidd has a propensity to give his starters heavy minutes, while the Bucks have a fun fantasy schedule over the coming weeks. ... Briante Weber (1.5) has played 72 minutes for the Grizzlies in two games since being signed. Weber won't help much in the scoring department, but steals and dimes could come in bunches if he continues to earn such heavy exposure. ... If you need a boost from beyond the arc, Philly's Isaiah Canaan (8.1) has played at least 24 minutes in eight straight and has hit at least three 3-pointers in six of his past eight outings.
Shooting guard: I'm still stashing Alec Burks (12.1) where possible. The payoff might not be special, but for leagues with roster spots for injuries, it's almost a no-brainer to see if Burks can take over a lackluster guard depth chart in Utah.
Small forward: Lost in the injury shuffle in Memphis might be Tony Allen (17.0), who should also enjoy an uptick in offensive usage in addition to maintaining an elite steal rate. Allen has 13 steals over his past four games and has one of the higher rebounding rates among guard-eligible assets, as well. ... For deep leagues, why not take a shot on Michael Beasley (3.2)? The minutes might not ever rise past 25 per game, but he could provide nice scoring and rebounding rates given his high-usage tendencies.
Power Forward: The fallout in Memphis also adds value to JaMychal Green (39.2), who has suddenly become one of the team's leading scorers in the wake of the injury wave that has hit the Grizzlies. ... David Lee (49.1) will flirt with a double-double as long as he nears 20 minutes, but I'd rather have Green or even Brandon Bass (9.2) more than Lee, given steadier roles and stronger defensive metrics.
Center: Only Indiana's Ian Mahinmi (36.0) stands out among a weak waiver crop at the pivot. This is somewhat natural given the shallow nature of the position, as even Mahinmi is a borderline fantasy asset given sluggish rebounding rates. That said, for those seeking help in blocks and steals, at least we find the Pacers' center getting steady minutes.