Even before the recent injury news, LeBron James was the most difficult player to project for this season.
Much like Tom Brady did in the NFL, James has broken the expected production-vs.-aging curve by remaining elite at an age and experience level when almost every other player in history has already retired. Last season -- his 22nd in the NBA and in which he turned 40 -- James remained in the top 10 in the NBA in both fantasy points per game (seventh) and total fantasy points (ninth). He also played in 70 games for the second straight season, the first time he's accomplished that since he played with the Cavaliers almost a decade ago. In his first five seasons with the Lakers, James had averaged only 55.6 games per season (two of those seasons were shortened by about 10 games due to the pandemic).
On the other hand, James will miss the preseason and the start of the season due to sciatica. It isn't clear exactly when he might return or whether this will be a lingering issue. James is also still dealing with the likely role changes that will be required in playing a full season next to new teammate Luka Doncic.
He has been enigmatic about where he is in his career. He chose to play on an expiring deal this season and announced he won't necessarily wait for his son Bryce James, a freshman at Arizona, to make the NBA before retiring because they are on different timelines. He even teased a big "Second Decision" announcement this week that many speculated would be a retirement announcement but instead turned out to be an advertisement gimmick.
For more on where to draft LeBron James:
Points League Rankings | Category and Roto League Rankings | Season Projections
The contrasting factors make confidently projecting James' production this season very challenging. Before the sciatica news, I had projected small decreases in his volume and 69 games played. After the announcement, I dropped his projected games played by three to 66 games, while recognizing a further adjustment may be necessary in what is a fluid situation. He remains in the top 20 in my fantasy hoops rankings for both points and category leagues, with a reasonable draft range in fantasy hoops as high as a risk/reward late-first-round pick and as low as a slide into the third round for conservative drafters.
I drafted him with my first pick, at No. 16 overall, in a deep industry draft earlier this week. I still have him a bit higher in my personal rankings than I do on the more conservative projection-based rankings, If you are risk-averse, then late in the second is probably fine if he gets to you, as the floor is still pretty solid. If you're like me and love chasing the reward of James reaching his ceiling, then be as aggressive as you're comfortable being in making him the second player on your roster in 10- and 12-team leagues.