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ESPN Staff Writer- Fantasy football, basketball and sports betting writer for ESPN
- Former manager at a Fortune 100 financial services company
Every once in a while, the NBA landscape shifts in a way that leaves fans, analysts and even players in complete disbelief. Saturday night's blockbuster deal sending Luka Doncic from Dallas to the Los Angeles Lakers in exchange for Anthony Davis is one of those moments.
Not only is it one of the most shocking trades in NBA history, the deal dramatically reshapes both franchises and leaves lingering questions -- as Kevin Pelton pointed out while grading the trade -- about how each team will adjust in the short and long term.
The Lakers now boast a duo of two of the most skilled offensive players in NBA history, while the Mavericks pivot toward a more defense-focused approach by pairing Davis with Kyrie Irving. Given the fit concerns, lingering injuries and looming NBA trade deadline on Feb. 6, this move might not be the last for either team.
For fantasy basketball managers, this trade forces a reevaluation of player values. And betting markets have already reacted, shifting the Lakers' odds significantly to win the title.
Pairing Luka with LeBron on the Lakers
On one hand, the Lakers got the best player in the deal. Luka, who turns 26 on Feb. 28, is still approaching his peak years and is already a perennial top-5 finisher in the MVP vote who seems destined to earn the honor at least once before his career wraps up. On the other hand, the fit between Luka and LeBron James isn't as obvious on-paper as the one between LeBron and Davis.
Luka and LeBron have a lot of stylistic similarities, as mega-elite high-usage on-ball offense creators. Both are essentially point guards in power forward bodies with otherworldly court vision, the ability to use their size to get to the rim and finish against almost any opponent, and the ability to create their own streaky but highly effective looks from long range off the dribble. Both have played with All-NBA level guards and been able to coexist -- and thrive -- but neither have ever played with a player so similar to... themselves.
Luka is currently sidelined, having missed the last 20 games since suffering a strained calf on Christmas Day. But he is expected to return relatively soon, and when he does, he is likely to be able to do what Davis was never quite able to do -- take over as the full No. 1 offensive option for the Lakers, moving LeBron to more of an off-ball/secondary creator mode. The closest historic analogy is when LeBron moved more off-ball in Miami to maximize the fit between he and Dwyane Wade.
Both LeBron and Luka have much better 3-point shooting range now than Wade and LeBron had then, which should benefit their ability to mesh and synergize together. Both are still able to create major gravity when they have the ball, forcing opposing teams to warp and use multiple defenders to slow them down individually. In a perfect fit, one of Luka and LeBron would be able to draw that defensive gravity onto themselves and get the ball to the other to operate against an imbalanced defense. If it works, that is a scary proposition for opponents.
The Lakers' starting lineup projects to: Doncic, Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura, James and Jaxson Hayes. Hayes was the reserve center behind Davis, and it stands to reason that any future moves from the Lakers would be to shore up the position. Barring a center trade, you could see a lot of "small ball" lineups with LeBron, Hachimura and Luka still sporting enough beef to be strong on the glass.
How does this impact Luka and LeBron's fantasy value?
Luka's expected production doesn't change very much with the Lakers. He is still a clear top-5 fantasy hoops producer when on the court. He and LeBron can coexist, but Doncic, who ranks sixth in usage rate this season among players with 20+ games, could see a slight reduction. It's notable that he has played more off the ball than ever before this season, recording career lows in touches per game and dribbles per touch. It's worth watching how that factors in with LeBron as his teammate.
Brian Windhorst details the shocking trade between the Lakers and Mavericks involving Luka Doncic and Anthony Davis.
That said, as James ages, he'll likely relinquish more touches to Doncic, setting the stage for him to take over as the Lakers' franchise player. Playing alongside Doncic could also extend James' career by reducing his workload. The Lakers are in win-now mode, and Doncic allows James to conserve energy for the playoffs. Both players remain elite fantasy options, with high usage rates and production across multiple categories.
LeBron could lose a bit of volume as both a scorer and a distributor, but like in Miami next to Wade, current LeBron has the upside to score at much higher efficiency in a more off-ball role next to a creator like Luka. LeBron is currently eighth in the NBA in fantasy points per game, and though he could slide down a few spots he's still likely a top-15 fantasy points producer.
Other facts and tidbits on the new-look Lakers
Doncic's historic production: Doncic has averaged 28.6 points, 8.7 rebounds and 8.3 assists per game in his career. That scoring average ranks third in NBA history, trailing only Wilt Chamberlain (30.1) and Michael Jordan (30.1). He also has the second-most triple-doubles before turning 25, behind only Oscar Robertson.
An elite duo in LA: Doncic and James are two of just three players in league history to average at least 25 points, seven rebounds and seven assists per game in their careers -- Robertson being the other. Since the 2018-19 season, Doncic and James are also two of only three players to record 10,000 points, 3,000 rebounds and 3,000 assists. It's rare to see a player of Doncic's caliber traded, especially when they aren't forcing a move.
Dave McMenamin reports on LeBron James' reaction after the Lakers and Mavericks struck their blockbuster deal involving Luka Doncic and Anthony Davis.
Why did the Mavericks move on from Doncic?: While Doncic is an elite offensive talent, his conditioning issues and defensive struggles were glaring in last year's NBA Finals against the Boston Celtics. Over the last two seasons, Doncic has allowed a 44.7% blow-by rate as the primary defender on drives, the highest in the league during that span, per Second Spectrum. Also, he has spent just 2.8% of his on-court minutes moving at high speed, tied for the second-lowest rate in the league. He has also never played more than 72 games in a season and is currently sidelined with a calf injury. These factors likely played a role in Mavericks GM Nico Harrison's decision to move on, especially with Dallas sitting at 26-23.
Pairing AD and Kyrie on the Mavericks
On paper, the mesh between Davis and Kyrie Irving for the Mavericks is as perfect as you can get. The point guard/big man pairing is one of the most natural in basketball, and both are elite at running the pick-and-roll/pop game on offense. On court, their synergy should be obvious and immediate.
The fit isn't as obvious with the rest of the Mavericks' lineup, which was already a bit tilted toward strong big man play. Adding Davis as the jewel of the frontline means that P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II have too much redundancy for each to get enough minutes to be fantasy impact.
The seeming redundance of quality big men just before the Trade Deadline would portend the likelihood of the Mavs making another deal using frontline strength to bring back help on the wing. Because that is where they are now light, with Klay Thompson as the only proven starting-caliber wing on the roster, and Thompson turns 35 on Feb. 8.
How does this impact the fantasy value of Davis, Irving and others?
Leaving aside those roster construction speculations, this deal likely keeps Davis' level constant as a top-10 fantasy hoops producer, but not necessarily at the same position. Davis averaged 25.7 points, 11.9 rebounds and 2.1 blocks per game with the Lakers this season and has played 95% of his minutes at center this season, a significant jump from 40% during the Lakers' 2019-20 championship run. With Gafford and Lively anchoring the frontcourt, Davis should have the opportunity to play more minutes at power forward in Dallas.
This move boosts Irving from his current spot of No. 28 in fantasy points per game up to a fringe top-20 prospect. Irving will have to carry a larger perimeter offensive load on a daily basis with Doncic gone, and playing off of Davis should allow Irving to get both better looks himself as well as more assists opportunities to either a rolling Davis or to wide-open teammates spotting up against the now-imbalanced defenses.
Meanwhile each of Gafford, Lively and Washington -- who were all fantasy hoops relevant prior to this trade -- could slide down in value based on the minutes crunch at the position. Each are now borderline top-100 players at best, at least until we see who (if any) get starter-caliber minutes in the new configuration.
Other facts and tidbits on the new-look Mavericks
Dallas' shift to a defensive identity: Harrison told ESPN, "I believe that defense wins championships." He emphasized that acquiring an All-Defensive center and All-NBA player in Davis with a defensive mindset gives the Mavericks a better chance to compete now and in the future. His comments align with Dallas' defensive success, as they rank first in field goal percentage allowed on layups and dunks, thanks to Gafford and Lively. Adding Davis, who ranks fifth in that metric since Dec. 8, only strengthens their interior defense.
Betting futures thoughts
As of early Sunday morning, the Lakers are listed on ESPN BET as +1600 to win the NBA championship (sixth-shortest odds) while the Mavericks are at +3300 (ninth-shortest). This is a reversal from before the trade, when the Mavs were +2500 and the Lakers were +4000. It's a similar story with the odds to win the West, with the Lakers now third at +900 and the Mavericks seventh at +1600.
Odds by ESPN BET
The Lakers have played well this season, currently in the fifth-slot out West, but they always had one major inherent problem -- they couldn't beat the Denver Nuggets. Nikola Jokic has proven too much for Davis to handle in the middle, and he had become the Lakers' personal Kryptonite. With the new team configuration, the play style would be completely different and, if Luka and LeBron mesh well, the team has increased its ceiling. But they still need to make some sort of follow-up move at center to truly solidify themselves as contenders.
It's understandable how losing a player of Luka's caliber drops the Mavs' future prospects, even when he's replaced by an All-NBA and Defensive Player of the Year candidate in Davis. But the fit between Davis and Irving is so strong, that if they do make follow-up moves to turn redundant big man talent into more strength on the wings it's possible that the Mavericks have a higher ceiling this season as well.
At present, there's some value on the Lakers for both futures as relative longshots that should have at least a punchers' chance to win it all. There's also speculative value on the Mavs, but their need to make a significant follow-up move is even stronger than the Lakers'.