<
>

Fantasy basketball tips and projections for Saturday

Pacers forward Aaron Nesmith is worth plugging into lineups Saturday. Photo by Jeff Haynes/NBAE via Getty Images

<>ESPN's fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data, featuring ESPN's proprietary Basketball Power Index (BPI) to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. Fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.

New this season, ESPN Analytics will also generate daily NBA fantasy projections. By combining historical player and team data and specific game factors ESPN is able to accurately predict player box score stats. Accounting for injuries, trends in playing time and other factors impacting future performance, the statistical models can be used to help NBA fantasy players gain an edge in their league.

What you need to know for Saturday's games

On one of the last days of 2023, a blockbuster NBA deal unfolded early Saturday. The New York Knicks dealt young wing RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley to the Toronto Raptors for defensive stalwart O.G. Anunoby, guard Malachi Flynn and big man Precious Achiuwa. Fantasy managers are now tasked with gauging the impact of such major roster reshuffles for both teams.

The actionable angle is to immediately add Quickley in all formats, as he's almost certain to start and play major minutes for the Raptors the rest of the way after serving as a scoring microwave off the pine for the Knicks for much of his career. The former Kentucky star is a free agent in roughly 60% of ESPN leagues and has long been a player deserving of more exposure.

Quickley's scoring efficiency has always been impressive, but he never earned full-scale trust from the Knicks' staff. That will change, as his stellar per 36 minutes rates are now likely to mirror his actual output for Toronto. Scottie Barnes is enjoying a major breakout campaign as the team's top playmaker, but the Raptors badly needed a secondary creator, and now have one in Quickley. Expecting 20 PPG with sound peripheral production is a relatively conservative projection.

Anunoby and Barrett appear likely to mimic the roles they played for their prior teams, although there is some potential for Anunoby's catch-and-shoot volume to spike on a team with better guard play. Achiuwa is a sneaky good addition for New York, especially given how he thrived last year in place of an ailing Pascal Siakam. New York has the minutes to offer him a bigger role in the wake of Mitchell Robinson's season-ending ankle injury.

Looking back to Friday's results through a fantasy lens, the ascent of Portland Trail Blazers rookie Scoot Henderson gets top billing. The gifted young guard followed up on Thursday's career-scoring performance with 22 points and a career-best 11 dimes in a win over the San Antonio Spurs last night. You can still add Henderson for the cost of a roster spot in nearly half of ESPN men's basketball leagues.

Shifting to Saturday's six-game schedule, the focus is on two games with massive point totals. The suddenly short-handed New York Knicks take their 10th-ranked offense on the road to face the Indiana Pacers, owners of the league's top offense. This contest claims a slate-high total of 247.5 points and with such a lofty offensive ceiling in this one, includes a number of streamable options found in our Stream Team section. A duo of Villanova products are primed to produce after today's deal.

The other fantasy friendly matchup brings superstar appeal to the floor with the Dallas Mavericks visiting the Golden State Warriors in a game with a total of 241.5 points. Like with the game in Indiana tonight, this one features several widely available players who could help your roster during what is a lighter weekend slate.

Gaining games played over an opponent during a six-game night in a weekly head-to-head league is a savvy and actionable way to gain an edge, so make sure to consider some of the names nominated below.

Boston is going again on Friday night and it could be Jayson Tatum or Kristaps Porzingis who gets the night off, while the Grizzlies also have a back-to-back night at the Clippers. Hopefully, Morant will be able to play through his illness tonight. The Blazers, Hornets and Nuggets also play on the second half of a back-to-back on Friday so be sure to keep a close eye on the injury report regarding players from those teams.

Saturday's Stream Te.am

Andre Drummond, C, Bulls (16.1%): With Nikola Vucevic still sidelined by an oblique injury, Drummond, who is the second-most added player in ESPN leagues over the past week, brings his high-volume rebounding talents to the court against an undersized Philadelphia roster that struggled to keep Houston off the glass last night. With no Joel Embiid in this one, Drummond's bid for a double-double feels automatic.

Josh Hart, SG/SF, Knicks (33.9%): One of the league's better rebounding guards earns an elevated role this evening in Indianapolis thanks to today's big move. Already tasked with a big role for New York, Hart's scoring and playmaking duties should rise now that Barrett's 27% usage rate is off the court. I'd also look to shares of Donte DiVincenzo given his ability to, somewhat like Immanuel Quickley, produce big numbers even in a limited role. It's likely DiVincenzo approaches 30 minutes given the roster crunch.

Tim Hardaway Jr., SG/SF, Mavericks (24.3%): He's unlikely to match Thursday's huge line in a game that had Luka Doncic in street clothes, but Hardaway is still a proven shooter and one to target for tonight's inviting matchup with a Golden State backcourt that can prove sluggish on close-outs.

Dereck Lively II, C, Mavericks (23.7%): Limited to just 15 minutes in Minnesota a few nights back due to quickly collecting five fouls, Lively is in a better spot this evening against a Warriors team that, well, doesn't have Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert manning the paint. For those in need of blocks and boards, Lively could be your guy.

Aaron Nesmith, SF (5.3%), Pacers: Available in a vast majority of leagues, Nesmith is a nice plug-and-play option given the Pacers will be without Bruce Brown for another night. Connecting on nearly half of his 3-point attempts and sure to find some open looks playing alongside arguably the best point guard in the league, Nesmith is in a good spot to deliver,


Projections and Injury Reports

Fantasy projections powered by ESPN Analytics.* Projections assume all players who are listed as GTD will play. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Players available in at least 50% of ESPN leagues are listed in italics.


Miami Heat at Utah Jazz
5 p.m. Delta Center, Salt Lake City


BPI Projection: Heat in the 3rd highest-scoring game of the slate.

Injury Report:
Heat: Caleb Martin, (OUT - Ankle); Josh Richardson, (OUT - Back); Kyle Lowry, (OUT - Concussion); Dru Smith, (OUT - Knee); Jimmy Butler, (GTD - Calf)
Jazz: None reported

Heat projections:

Jazz projections:


Toronto Raptors at Detroit Pistons
6 p.m. Little Caesars Arena, Detroit


BPI Projection: Raptors in the 6th highest-scoring game of the slate.

Injury Report:
Raptors: O.G. Anunoby, (OUT - Not Injury Related); Christian Koloko, (OUT - Illness); Garrett Temple, (OUT - Ankle)
Pistons: Isaiah Stewart, (OUT - Toe); Monte Morris, (OUT - Quadriceps)

Raptors projections:

Pistons projections:


New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers
7 p.m. Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis


BPI Projection: Pacers in the highest-scoring game of the slate.

Injury Report:
Knicks: Jericho Sims, (OUT - Ankle); Mitchell Robinson, (OUT - Ankle); Quentin Grimes, (GTD - Illness); Immanuel Quickley, (OUT - Not Injury Related); RJ Barrett, (OUT - Not Injury Related)
Pacers: Bruce Brown, (OUT - Knee); Isaiah Jackson, (GTD - Finger)

Knicks projections:

Pacers projections:


Philadelphia 76ers at Chicago Bulls
8 p.m. United Center, Chicago


BPI Projection: 76ers in the 4th highest-scoring game of the slate.

Injury Report:
76ers: Joel Embiid, (OUT - Ankle); KJ Martin, (GTD - Illness)
Bulls: Onuralp Bitim, (OUT - Nose); Zach LaVine, (OUT - Foot); Nikola Vucevic, (OUT - Groin); Torrey Craig, (OUT - Heel); Lonzo Ball, (OUT - Knee); Jevon Carter, (GTD - Ankle); Patrick Williams, (GTD - Ankle)

76ers projections:

Bulls projections:


Los Angeles Lakers at Minnesota Timberwolves
8 p.m. Target Center, Minneapolis


BPI Projection: Timberwolves in the 5th highest-scoring game of the slate.

Injury Report:
Lakers: Gabe Vincent, (OUT - Knee); Anthony Davis, (GTD - Ankle); Cam Reddish, (GTD - Groin); LeBron James, (GTD - Illness)
Timberwolves: Jaylen Clark, (OUT - Achilles); Karl-Anthony Towns, (GTD - Knee)

Lakers projections:

Timberwolves projections:


Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors
8:30 p.m. Chase Center, San Francisco


BPI Projection: Warriors in the 2nd highest-scoring game of the slate.

Injury Report:
Mavericks: Maxi Kleber, (OUT - Toe); Seth Curry, (GTD - Illness); Kyrie Irving, (GTD - Heel); Luka Doncic, (GTD - Quadriceps)
Warriors: Draymond Green, (OUT - Suspension); Kevon Looney, (GTD - Illness)

Mavericks projections:

Warriors projections: