Every Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, we pose a question to a rotating panel of ESPN fantasy basketball experts to gauge their thoughts on a hot topic. Today's contributors are ESPN Fantasy's Kyle Soppe, Tom Carpenter and Joe Kaiser.
Khris Middleton (hamstring) and Ben Simmons (foot) had preseason surgeries and were expected to miss much or all of the regular season as a result. However, they have been doing some light on-court work lately, so there is at least a chance we could see them at some point in the second half of the season. Considering that Middleton (6.1 percent ESPN ownership) ranked 22nd on the Player Rater last season and Simmons (32. 6 percent) was the No. 1 overall pick in 2016, in what situations would you recommend adding them to fantasy rosters?
Kyle Soppe: At this point, I'd say 93.9 percent of leagues have it right on Middleton and 67.4 percent are right on Simmons. That's not to say that there isn't some upside in both cases, but I just can't see pulling the trigger in any circumstance right now if you play in an ESPN standard league that has only three bench spots. A "normal" ESPN league requires that 130 players be rostered so, in theory, you'd have to cut a player better than a DeMarre Carroll (has seen his minutes spike lately and plays an important role on one of the five most efficient offenses of all time) or a Zach Randolph (15th-highest usage rate in basketball), both of whom rank outside of the top 130 on the per-game version of our Player Rater.
The logistics of making this add are tough to swallow, but even if you can do that, what are you hoping to get? Middleton would be my choice over Simmons, but you're talking about a crippling injury and a player who has a late-February/early-March timetable. Normally I'd be on board for a late-season add to boost your playoff chances, but with five back-to-backs in March, how many games (let alone minutes) is Middleton realistically going to appear in? As for Simmons, I think he is a fantasy gift from the gods long term, but no matter what Joel Embiid says, the odds of March games counting for much in Philadelphia are slim, and they've shown patience in the past with injured youngsters. I'm sure there are situations in which the addition of one of these players makes sense (I'm happy to answer specific questions), but if I'm advising the masses, it would be to look elsewhere.
Tom Carpenter:
Whether you should add either of these players depends on your league's format, size and your team's positioning. Because neither has a set timetable and likely will be eased back into action, they surely aren't worth adding in standard-sized roto leagues, unless you have an IR spot available or your team is at or near the top of the standings. If you're playing catchup, you simply can't burn a roster spot indefinitely -- especially in head-to-head leagues with daily roster movements, because you'll be missing a few player games' worth of stats each week as a result.
However, I am getting ahead of the curve by adding Middleton in leagues where my roster and positioning are solid, because he recently said he hopes for full practices around the All-Star break. If he is back to full speed by even mid-March, the addition of a top-30 player for the final month of the season could be the difference between a title and coming up short -- especially in head-to-head formats. I'm far more skeptical about Simmons, because he is a rookie and should be treated with kid gloves by the Sixers, but I'll add him too in leagues where my roster is in solid shape.
Joe Kaiser: Middleton is likely still a few months away from a return so unless you're looking to stash him in a keeper league or have an open IR spot, where you could hold on to him without losing an active roster spot, he's a player to forget about until next season. The one exception to that would be if he is able to return to the court, say, in late February. If that's the case, you'll want to beat the other owners in your league to him, because even after a long layoff, Middleton's well-rounded game is a risk worth taking.
Simmons is a different story. He participated in Friday's shootaround prior to the team's game in Boston, and there's a chance he could be back on the court by the end of the month. While his upside likely isn't anywhere close to that of a more proven player like Middleton, Simmons is the rare forward who can handle the ball and distribute. He's expected to play point guard once he returns, and he is someone to stash right now, especially in category leagues, where he can be a tremendous asset in terms of assists.