Each week in the NBA is its own story -- full of surprises, both positive and negative -- and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true ... don't be surprised!
Don't be surprised if ... Scottie Barnes is a top-10 overall player
Many assumed Barnes, the excellent Toronto Raptors SF/SG/PF who was the league's top rookie in 2022 and a first-time All-Star in 2024, could not get better statistically, but look at the numbers. Barnes enters Thursday's home game with the Thunder playing his best basketball of late, and fantasy managers should re-evaluate expectations. Barnes was a third-round selection in ESPN average live drafts (points format) and a solid complementary piece to a fantasy roster. Today, he looks like a "building block" player.
Since returning from a three-week absence from an orbital bone fracture, Barnes has averaged 47.1 ESPN fantasy points -- and for category/roto managers, a cool 23.6 PPG, 8.9 RPG and 7.9 APG. For perspective, Nuggets C Nikola Jokic and Bucks PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo are the only players averaging each of those figures in that two-week span, and Jokic is the only one doing so for the season. Barnes averaged 19.9 PPG, 8.2 RPG and 6.1 APG, and 45.6 ESPN fantasy points last season, 20th in the league. This is better.
Perhaps we should have seen this coming. We chronicled the surprising rise of Raptors C Jakob Poeltl recently, noting that the overwhelmed Raptors needed more minutes and production from him, and certainly he is stepping up. The Raptors are a young team lacking bench support. Poeltl thrived while Barnes was out, but even with Barnes back, he remains terrific. SF/SG/PF RJ Barrett is enjoying his best season, too. The Raptors boast three excellent fantasy options.
OK, so you may be wondering if there really is a path to Barnes, 24, averaging 50 ESPN fantasy points per game, which may get him to top-10 status. After all, the Raptors should get presumptive PG Immanuel Quickley (elbow) back this month, and C/PF Kelly Olynyk and SG/SF Bruce Brown can't stay away forever, and that may affect his usage and assists. Then again, Quickley isn't really a point guard. He's a shooter, more of a two-guard. Barnes is 6-foot-7, so he isn't really a point guard, either. What is a point guard? Is Jokic one?
Barnes is Toronto's signature player, and he is taking that "next step up" to superstardom. He dropped 35 points (and 60 fantasy points) on the Pacers this past Tuesday. A few days prior, it was 55 fantasy points and a triple-double versus the Heat. Barnes scored 65 fantasy points against the Pistons. This is the new normal. If you are redrafting this month, Barnes likely slides out of the top 10, but do not let him slide too far.
Don't be surprised if ... Isaiah Hartenstein is a top 10 fantasy center
Hartenstein missed the first 15 games of his Thunder career after fracturing his left hand during a preseason game, debuting a week before Thanksgiving with 13 points, 14 rebounds and 4 blocks against the Blazers. The well-traveled Hartenstein, most recently with the Knicks for two seasons, came off the bench that day. Then he moved into the starting lineup and, entering this Thursday's game at Toronto, Hartenstein averages 13.3 PPG, 12.3 RPG, 1.5 BPG and 38.8 ESPN fantasy points per game. Last season, he averaged a pedestrian 28.6 points per game.
We have known that Hartenstein was capable of big rebounding totals, as he was among the better per-minute producers in recent seasons, and the main reason he is playing so many minutes now is due to the Chet Holmgren hip injury, which may sideline the second-year star well into the new calendar year. Eventually, Hartenstein may not get 30 minutes per evening. Still, few expected this offensive output. He is roughly six inches taller than anyone else in the rotation, and he dominates the paint at both ends of the court, with roughly a quarter of his field goal attempts coming as dunks.
Fantasy managers tend to worry about things that are months away when they don't need to. Yes, when Holmgren returns, Hartenstein likely heads to the bench, and his minutes and production should drop. What if Holmgren doesn't return until after the February All-Star break? We wish him well, but things happen. Hartenstein is rostered in fewer than 70% of ESPN standard leagues. Add him. He may not produce like Poeltl or Clippers C Ivica Zubac all season, but we can worry about that later.
Don't be surprised if ... Malik Monk becomes a top-50 player
Monk finished among the top five in voting for Sixth Man of the Year in both of his first two seasons with the Kings, becoming a fantasy asset after teasing with his potential for the Hornets and Lakers. Monk also came off the bench in each of his first 13 contests this season, though his numbers were down a bit -- notably in assists, perhaps due to playing in tandem with offseason acquisition SF/PF DeMar DeRozan, a high-usage option. Still, Monk mattered. Then he missed two weeks of games due to a sprained right ankle and fantasy managers moved on.
Get interested in Monk again, as he looks like a different player since returning from injury. Plus, he boasts a new role. He scored a season-high 61 ESPN fantasy points the day before Thanksgiving at Minnesota (27 points, 9 assists) and added 55 points two days later. Then he went into the starting lineup and, while his fantasy production fell a bit from those monster games, it remains excellent. Monk has been a solid point-per-minute scorer in recent seasons, but last season he became a relevant distributor as well, averaging 5.1 APG. Now he is more than relevant in that aspect. Monk has posted 36 assists over his last four games, averaging 36 minutes per contest. This is something new.
Kings PG De'Aaron Fox is averaging a career-best 27.2 PPG, but he hasn't been among the leaders in assists in recent seasons, as C/PF Domantas Sabonis leads the team. Things are changing now. Monk is running the offense for Sabonis, with Fox playing more off the ball. It worked on Tuesday in a win over the Rockets, with Monk distributing 12 assists versus nary a turnover, and he was a team-high plus-12 in the nine-point victory. Oh yes, this is so interesting. It may affect Sabonis' numbers more than those of Fox, but Monk is turning into a must-add option.