The surprising Oklahoma City Thunder are legitimate contenders for the top seed in the Western Conference, in part because their superstar, SG/PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, is performing at a higher, more efficient statistical level than he did a season ago.
Gilgeous-Alexander broke out during the 2022-23 campaign, averaging 31.4 PPG and 52.1 ESPN fantasy points per game. This season, SGA has averaged 31.1 PPG and 59.4 ESPN fantasy points per game.
Gilgeous-Alexander has been a bit better as a fantasy option this season, to the point he is behind only Denver Nuggets C Nikola Jokic in total fantasy points, but the change for him and the Thunder has been the players surrounding their star. Gilgeous-Alexander is scoring a bit less traditionally, because he is attempting fewer shots from the field and the free throw line, but the key for him in fantasy has been the other categories that often get ignored, notably assists and his work on defense.
For example, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging more rebounds, assists, steals and 3-pointers than he did during his breakout season, and he is shooting a career-best 54.4% on field goals. His turnover rate has dropped precipitously. Gilgeous-Alexander remains among the top traditional scorers in the league, but it is his focus on doing just about everything else better, also thanks to a change in the offense, that has played a critical role for fantasy managers, and the Thunder.
From then to now
Consider what the Thunder looked like a season ago, when they finished with a 40-42 record, failing to advance out of the play-in round. Gilgeous-Alexander was fantastic, of course. Only five players scored more fantasy points. His teammates, however, offered only tepid aid, none of them averaging enough fantasy points to be a top-50 fantasy option.
This season, rookie PF/C Chet Holmgren averages 16.8 PPG and 41.2 ESPN fantasy points, while SG/SF/PF Jalen Williams is at 19 PPG and 37.1 fantasy points per. Each is among the top-50 fantasy scorers. PG/SG/SF Josh Giddey was No. 2 among Thunder players a season ago, averaging 35.8 fantasy points, but it was not nearly good enough.
That version of the Thunder lacked depth. This version does not, with Holmgren, Williams, Giddey (27.2 fPPG) and SG/SF Luguentz Dort (22.6 fPPG) aiding the star, and perhaps recent acquisition SF Gordon Hayward will help, too.
Gilgeous-Alexander remains second in the NBA in usage percentage, behind only another contender for league MVP honors in Dallas Mavericks PG Luka Doncic, and slightly ahead of Milwaukee Bucks PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo. One important statistic these players, along with Denver's amazing Jokic, having in common, is their innate passing ability and having it translate to more assists. Not every fantasy superstar piles on the assists.
Pay attention to the assists
Giddey, the Australian in his third NBA season, averaged better than 6 APG in each of his first two seasons, but he is hardly a strong shooter and the team's offense often stagnated with him leading the way. It did not operate at an efficient, high level. Things are clearly better with Gilgeous-Alexander running the offense.
As a result, Giddey has seen his assist rate crater to 4.4 APG, and since he is not much of a scorer, it greatly affects his fantasy value. Giddey went from borderline top-50 fantasy option (No. 53 pick in ESPN ADP) to barely among the top 100, and it is mainly because Gilgeous-Alexander handles the ball more. Gigleous-Alexander boasts 130 more assists than Giddey, but only 12 more turnovers. Efficiency matters.
How can anyone argue the results? The Thunder continue to soar, perhaps to the West's top seed. Gilgeous-Alexander is second to Jokic using ESPNBET odds for league MVP, and it may come down to which of their teams earns the top seed. Gilgeous-Alexander scores more traditional points than Jokic, but he cannot match the Serbian for rebounds and assists. Perhaps Gilgeous-Alexander can still do more in those categories. He did, by the way, average 5.9 RPG in 2019-20, his first season with the Thunder after being acquired from the LA Clippers.
In his defense
One critical area in which Gilgeous-Alexander clearly shines over Jokic and Doncic is on defense. Gilgeous-Alexander leads the league in steals and, while he boasts 61 blocked shots over 64 games, he seems to be focusing more in that area recently, with 27 coming over the past 18 games.
Again, traditional points and rebounds are nice, but there is great value for fantasy managers when players add steals and blocked shots (frequently called "stocks"), when they hit a high percentage of shots and commit fewer turnovers. Gilgeous-Alexander thrives in this respect; Doncic averages 3.9 turnover per game, second behind Atlanta's Trae Young. Gilgeous-Alexander is 36th in the league at 2.2 TPG. This is important.
Ultimately, fantasy managers knew Gilgeous-Alexander was a legitimate superstar, and while he is scoring a bit less traditionally this season, his fantasy value continues to rise. Credit the star but also the talent around him. The Thunder are legitimate contenders for the West crown, thanks to Gilgeous-Alexander, Holmgren, Williams and others, and fantasy managers have been big winners here as well.