Donovan Mitchell has been the biggest story surrounding the Cleveland Cavaliers this season, not only for his recent 71-point game but for how well he has fit in with his new team after the stunning offseason trade from the Utah Jazz. Mitchell played for Utah for five seasons, averaging 23.9 PPG in that span. Few probably thought his numbers would get even better on his new team with an established core, but Mitchell scored another 46 points in his return to Utah on Tuesday and sure looks like one of the top players in the sport.
Mitchell is averaging a career-best 29.3 PPG and is shooting with efficiency, hitting 48.9% of his field goals, 40.4% of his 3-pointers and 88.1% from the free throw line. Each figure is better than anything else he has done before, and there seems to be no letup. Only four players have scored more points this season. One player has hit more 3-pointers. Only nine have more steals. I thought Mitchell went a bit too early in preseason drafts but, in retrospect, he certainly did not. Good for fantasy managers who invested this season.
Has it been so good for those investing in other Cavaliers, though? You know, those who delivered big numbers a season ago when Mitchell wasn't around? Here is where fantasy managers can have some measure of gripe, notably with Cleveland's young big men.
Darius Garland
Last season: 21.7 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 8.6 APG, 2.6 3PG, 46.2% FG, 89.2% FT
This season: 21.4 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 7.8 APG, 2.4 3PG, 44.9% FG, 86.2% FT
Jarrett Allen
Last season: 16.1 PPG, 10.8 RPG, 67.7% FG
This season: 13.2 PPG, 9.8 RPG, 61.9% FG
Evan Mobley
Last season: 15 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 1.7 BPG
This season: 14.2 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 1.3 BPG
Last season's 44-win Cavaliers were clearly led by breakout Garland, and he's doing fine this season, but I think we all expected more than the No. 47 slot on the Player Rater, and No. 48 in points formats, since he went 30th in ADP. Garland was supposed to do better but Mitchell's high usage affects his game quite a bit, as his numbers have fallen -- slightly, in some cases -- across the board. Like everyone else, Garland is getting fewer shots. He's getting fewer assists. Alas, the Cavaliers are much better and Mitchell seems like a perfect fit.
Watching big men Allen and Mobley this season, the numbers aren't entirely the thing. They just look so much more passive, like they're not even a part of the offense anymore. Allen's stats have taken the biggest hit, despite averaging a tad more minutes. He barely played Tuesday due to illness, but he's scored more than 13 points in only four of 14 games over the past month, seeing fewer shots than last season and, on some nights, he's an afterthought offensively.
Mobley looked so mature as a rookie last season, but part of the deal was that he would develop an outside shot. The Twin Towers thing is nice, but Mobley should be a threat outside the 3-point line. He's not, hitting 20.9% from range. He's taking some of Allen's rebounds, and the reason his overall field goal percentage has risen is because everything is at the rim. That's not development, really. Mobley could be a 20-and-10 guy, but perhaps he can't do this alongside guards combining for more than 50 PPG and 37 field goal attempts. As with Garland, Mobley's ADP was a few rounds better than his current value.
Not that anyone should be complaining, really, because the Cavaliers are more of a legitimate threat in the East and Mitchell is the biggest reason. Out went Collin Sexton and underachieving offensive forward Lauri Markkanen (though he's not underachieving anymore!) and Mitchell is fifth in the NBA in VORP (value over replacement player) and win shares and directing an actual contender. The Cavaliers have a go-to guy, but also a top point guard, two excellent defensive big men and assorted shooters (Caris LeVert, Cedi Osman, Kevin Love). All is great!
However, fantasy managers -- my hand is raised, too -- should realize this is what happens when a team adds an alpha to a nice, set core. Nothing is wrong with Garland, Mobley and Allen in fantasy circles, really, but those expecting their numbers to rise should stop expecting it, and we should be mindful of this the next time a team makes a trade like this one.
Garland was a near top-20 fantasy option last season and perhaps he cannot get back to that level with Mitchell around. Mobley remains a smart, defensive force with a raw offensive game that may not develop, though he's only 21. Allen is a big man in an evolving sport looking for versatile offensive threats. Perhaps he doesn't average 15 PPG again. But wow, did you see Mitchell score 71 that night?
Other random thoughts
-- I couldn't believe the Warriors, with Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins back, looked so terrible at home Tuesday night losing against half a Suns team. Duane Washington and Dario Saric, really? Curry looked understandably off on his shooting until a solid fourth quarter. The fantasy angle here is it is now a wise time to trade for Curry -- and Wiggins, really -- and we will soon see many fantasy teams dumping PF/C Kevon Looney and PG/SG Donte DiVincenzo. Despite a 27-point outing Tuesday, SG Jordan Poole will see a big decline in production (26.5 PPG as a starter, 14.8 PPG as reserve). As with the Cavaliers, there is only one basketball to go around.
-- I should thank Suns PG Chris Paul for netting me a few fantasy championships the past two seasons, as I bet on him staying healthy and productive enough when others deemed that foolish. Perhaps I did initially as well. This year, I didn't take the chance. Paul, 37, is out again, this time with a hip injury, and probably falls short of 50 games this season. While he showed recently sans backcourt mate Devin Booker that he could score 20 points on any given night, he had to play big minutes to do so, perhaps to his physical detriment. All his numbers are down, and what's with the poor shooting? I don't think trading for Paul this season in fantasy is wise.
-- I wish Suns backup PG Cameron Payne wasn't out again with the foot sprain. He averages 15.1 PPG and 7.3 APG as a starter, and he would be doing business this week with Paul out. Alas, we cannot roster him today in most leagues, but remember him for later, for Paul may not be healthy in February and March, either.
-- Utah's Markkanen isn't really slowing down and, by the way, his team beat Mitchell's Cavaliers Tuesday. Markkanen contributed 25 points and 16 boards, and we forget that perhaps he was a bit extra motivated against his former team as well. Mitchell is the No. 7 option on the Player Rater. Markkanen is No. 8! We applaud Mitchell, but Markkanen has been the far superior fantasy value, and should be an All-Star as well. I don't think Markkanen will slow down. Really, one could argue Markkanen is the biggest statistical beneficiary of the Mitchell trade.
-- Perhaps Orlando Magic PF/C Moritz Wagner returns to the starting lineup soon, and perhaps he does not. It matters. Wagner returned from his suspension and in three games has come off the bench and basically just fired up 3-pointers. C Wendell Carter Jr. has been starting and he has three double-doubles in five games. He certainly has more statistical upside than Wagner does, so I am probably focusing on the wrong player here. While we have said this so many times in the past, add Carter in case this is real.