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Read below for the fantasy basketball Forecaster
In weekly transaction leagues, the schedule is one of the most important factors in determining how to fill out your fantasy basketball lineups. All fantasy teams have a hierarchy of player calibers, with a set of "best players" surrounded by a cast of lesser but still productive players from which to draw your weekly starting lineup.
All things being equal, a manager would start their best players every week and fill out the rest of their lineup based on things such as matchups. However, all things aren't equal.
The schedule changes the bottom line, because teams can play a different number of games, against a different caliber of opponents, with different breakdowns of home vs. road, back-to-backs, rest nights, etc. All of these things matter, and as I've seen this season, they often matter more than a player's caliber.
For example, would you rather get two games of a great player at 35 minutes per night against tough competition, or four games of a lesser player at 30 minutes per night against high-paced, weak competition? When looking at it quantitatively, it's surprising (to me) how often the correct answer is actually the lesser player -- yes, based on schedules, sometimes even star players should sit for a week.
Thus, below, we have the Forecaster, which provides a scheduling and matchup tool to help you make better-informed lineup decisions for the upcoming week.
We also take your weekly prep to another level with my weekly projection rankings. Here, you'll find my top-150 weekly rankings, based on ESPN standard points-league scoring, so you can compare players to determine which players to start, sit, stream or drop for the week ahead. I also provide several typical starters whom you might want to sit, and several bench/free agents whom you might want to stream.
Without further ado, let's check out the Forecaster.
In the Forecaster and this article, we have to treat the schedule as though it's fixed so we can evaluate. Clearly, at this time, the schedule is very fluid with games being regularly postponed due to COVID-19 absences. This Forecaster operates on the currently scheduled games, but it's an absolute necessity to check the latest information on schedules on Monday before the leagues lock for the week. And, as we did this week, we'll update the Forecaster to account for postponements as they happen.
I hope everyone is enjoying your holiday season. The NBA schedule is planned to be full this week, with teams getting back to full throttle after getting Christmas Eve off. Based on the (currently very fluid) schedule, there are 15 squads expected to play four games, 12 with three and three with two. The teams with only two scheduled games would still be at a disadvantage, but there's a higher likelihood than usual that there could potentially be other teams joining them with only two games. Or, they could drop to one or zero games if forced to reschedule.
The Utah Jazz scored the only 10 on the initial Forecaster for the week, with the Los Angeles Lakers and Phoenix Suns scoring 9s, and the Boston Celtics, Dallas Mavericks, Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks scoring 8s. The Bucks are the only team on this list with only three games scheduled, and seem to be getting healthier after being one of the harder hit teams over the past couple weeks.
On the other side of the scheduling coin, the Detroit Pistons, New Orleans Pelicans and Philadelphia 76ers all only play twice next week and the Pistons have the lowest initial Forecaster score of 1. The Orlando Magic scored the only 2 with three games. The Pelicans and 76ers each scored 3s, the Oklahoma City Thunder scored a 3 as well with four games, and the Portland Trail Blazers and Toronto Raptors scored 2s with 3 games.
As always, we recommend you checking out those weekly projection rankings to see our take on which players from may be worth starting or sitting, based on what we know currently of the combination of the schedule and injuries. Please check back on Monday, to see what team schedules may have changed ahead of Monday's roster lock.