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Read below for the fantasy basketball Forecaster
In weekly transaction leagues, the schedule is one of the most important factors in determining how to fill out your fantasy basketball lineups. All fantasy teams have a hierarchy of player calibers, with a set of "best players" surrounded by a cast of lesser but still productive players from which to draw your weekly starting lineup.
All things being equal, a manager would start their best players every week and fill out the rest of their lineup based on things such as matchups. However, all things aren't equal.
The schedule changes the bottom line, because teams can play a different number of games, against a different caliber of opponents, with different breakdowns of home vs. road, back-to-backs, rest nights, etc. All of these things matter, and as I've seen this season, they often matter more than a player's caliber.
For example, would you rather get two games of a great player at 35 minutes per night against tough competition, or four games of a lesser player at 30 minutes per night against high-paced, weak competition? When looking at it quantitatively, it's surprising (to me) how often the correct answer is actually the lesser player -- yes, based on schedules, sometimes even star players should sit for a week.
Thus, below, we have the Forecaster, which provides a scheduling and matchup tool to help you make better-informed lineup decisions for the upcoming week.
We also take your weekly prep to another level with my weekly projection rankings. Here, you'll find my top-150 weekly rankings, based on ESPN standard points-league scoring, so you can compare players to determine which players to start, sit, stream or drop for the week ahead. I also provide several typical starters whom you might want to sit, and several bench/free agents whom you might want to stream.
Without further ado, let's check out the Forecaster.
The week ahead
Update: On Monday, December 13. the NBA has announced the postponement of the Chicago Bulls' next two games, Tuesday against the Detroit Pistons and Thursday against the Toronto Raptors, due to a COVID-19 outbreak.
This Forecaster operates on the scheduled games, but it's still worth it to check the latest information on schedules before leagues lock for the week just in case.
The schedule this week is pretty standard, with 17 teams scheduled to play four games, 12 to play three, and only the Oklahoma City Thunder scheduled for two. As such, for maybe the first time since I've been doing this, there are only two teams to score under a 4 in the Forecaster. In fact, the entire distribution is skewed to the middle, with a whopping 21 of the 30 teams scoring from 4 to 7.
All seven of the teams to score 8 or higher have four games scheduled for next week ... in fact, all teams to score at least a 7 and three of the four teams that scored 6s also have four games. The scores are led by the Milwaukee Bucks with their perfect 10. The Atlanta Hawks and Memphis Grizzlies each scored a 9, which may be particularly pertinent for a Grizzlies team dealing with injury absences to star players that may have some strong streaming options. The Brooklyn Nets, Denver Nuggets, Philadelphia 76ers and Phoenix Suns all notched 8s this week.
On the other side of the coin, the Thunder are a perfect storm to score a 1 this week, with a struggling offense and only two games played. The only other team near them on the Forecaster this week is the Orlando Magic, who scored a 2 with three tough games against playoffs teams from last season, including a back-to-back against the Miami Heat and Nets.
As always, we recommend you check out those weekly projection rankings to see our take on which players from may be worth starting or sitting due to the combination of the schedule and injuries.