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Read below for the fantasy basketball Forecaster
In weekly transaction leagues, the schedule is one of the most important factors in determining how to fill out your fantasy basketball lineups. All fantasy teams have a hierarchy of player calibers, with a set of "best players" surrounded by a cast of lesser but still productive players from which to draw your weekly starting lineup.
All things being equal, a manager would start their best players every week and fill out the rest of their lineup based on things such as matchups. However, all things aren't equal.
The schedule changes the bottom line, because teams can play a different number of games, against a different caliber of opponents, with different breakdowns of home vs. road, back-to-backs, rest nights, etc. All of these things matter, and as I've seen this season, they often matter more than a player's caliber.
For example, would you rather get two games of a great player at 35 minutes per night against tough competition, or four games of a lesser player at 30 minutes per night against high-paced, weak competition? When looking at it quantitatively, it's surprising (to me) how often the correct answer is actually the lesser player -- yes, based on schedules, sometimes even star players should sit for a week.
Thus, below, we have the Forecaster, which provides a scheduling and matchup tool to help you make better-informed lineup decisions for the upcoming week.
We also take your weekly prep to another level with my weekly projection rankings. Here, you'll find my top-150 weekly rankings, based on ESPN standard points-league scoring, so you can compare players to determine which players to start, sit, stream or drop for the week ahead. I also provide several typical starters whom you might want to sit, and several bench/free agents whom you might want to stream.
Without further ado, let's check out the Forecaster.
The week ahead
As of this writing, there are no known cancellations of games for the next week due to COVID-19. The hope is that there will be no COVID-19 cancellations this season. This Forecaster operates on the currently scheduled games, but it's still worth it to check the latest information on schedules on Monday before the leagues lock for the week just in case.
This was an entertaining week in the NBA for a lot of reasons. The on-court action is fascinating, as players learn to play in the old-is-new-again contact-filled NBA game, and the non-basketball outcomes are just as compelling. Or, in some cases, hilarious. I can't lie, if you want me to chuckle these days, all you have to do is say the words "Jokic Brothers," and I'm in. But, I digress. Let's step away from the joyous comedy of the image of several giant men with accents learning to use Twitter to defend their "little" brother on social media from another set of giant brothers, and get back to preparing your fantasy basketball teams to thrive in the week ahead.
This week is saturated with games, with a whopping 19 teams scheduled for four games. This will make it difficult for players on teams with only three games to keep up, and it will be nigh impossible for players on the San Antonio Spurs with only two games to match. As such, I'd expect that when you check out this week's rankings there will be a lot of Spurs on the "Potentially Sittable" list. All of the teams that scored 8 or higher this week have four games, including the Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers with 10s, the Golden State Warriors at 9 and the LA Clippers and New York Knicks with 8s.
On the other side of the coin, three teams with four games still scored 3s or less this week. The Orlando Magic, by dint of their own offensive struggles and a monster week with four road games including a back-to-back against the Brooklyn Nets and the Milwaukee Bucks, managed to score only a 1 despite having four games. The Spurs also scored a 1, but with two games that was to be expected. The Houston Rockets and Cleveland Cavaliers turned their three games into 2s, while the Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder only managed 3s despite four games. The Portland Trail Blazers also scored a 3, with three games on tap.
As always, we recommend you checking out those weekly projection rankings to see our take on which players may be worth starting or sitting due to the combination of the schedule and injuries.