Washington Wizards small forward Otto Porter Jr. finally made it to the ESPN most added list over the weekend, and that can probably be attributed to him scoring 20 points in Sunday night's loss at Oklahoma City. Porter came off the bench and if he had scored only 14 points -- as he did in the previous game, his second after a long layoff due to a knee injury -- perhaps fantasy managers would not have noticed. Porter is a good player, a ninth-round selection in ESPN average live drafts despite rather tepid scoring numbers in his career. However, those numbers can go up.
Porter is now 80 percent rostered in ESPN leagues, so chances are you cannot simply click a few times and add him to your bench, but the way the current Wizards are structured, opportunity is there for myriad more 20-point games. I watched Porter closely last season when he averaged 14.7 points per game, but he was doing so many other things to aid fantasy managers. Sometimes people simply look at points, and while Porter is a strong shooter, he lacked the volume to score 20 points per night at that point.
What I focused on with him last season was his play when volatile point guard John Wall was out of the lineup, which happened over much of the second half of the season. Porter could have stepped into a consistent, volume-based role. Instead, Bradley Beal did. Porter just kept doing his thing, which was scoring in the teens and providing six-plus rebounds while also delivering strong figures in steals, 3-pointers and shooting percentages. He averaged 19.1 points over 12 February games, with a huge (for him) usage rate, but then he failed to assert himself the final 19 games. He was a good player, surely a top-100 fantasy option, but not great.
Perhaps Porter simply cannot be great, but at 25 and carrying the kind of contract typically reserved for great players, there sure seems like Porter has some untapped potential to perform, statistically, like Milwaukee Bucks small forward Khris Middleton. Middleton averaged 13.4 points during the 2014 season, with solid steals and 3-point figures, and he shot well. Then he started shooting and scoring a lot more. Usage rate is key. The Wizards remain a mess, though less so than a month ago, and there is no shortage of blame to go around -- from Wall to injured Dwight Howard and others -- but there is clear opportunity in this environment.
Beal does his thing and scores the points, and center Thomas Bryant has emerged as a reasonable rebounder, though not exactly a major paint presence. Everyone here must rebound. Beal, newcomer Trevor Ariza and Porter can get you seven or more on any given night, because there is no Howard or Marcin Gortat parked underneath the basket. Someone else has to score after Beal. The fact that Porter got 17 shots in his 24 minutes off the bench Sunday is telling. He drained 4-of-6 3-pointers in the game as well. I think his days coming off the bench end this week, perhaps in the pending home-and-home series with the Philadelphia 76ers, a team that permits 112.2 points per game -- tied for 22nd in the league.
While I am it, here is a bold prediction: the Wizards will make the playoffs. The Eastern Conference is hardly formidable after the top five squads, and I think Washington makes a run sans Wall. Perhaps they can even win more than they lose over the final few months of the season. Perhaps the organization cannot move on from Wall, not only due to salary obligations but also reputation, but there are other players here. Beal is a star. Ariza piles on the 3-pointers and steals. Bryant rebounds and makes the shots he takes. Tomas Satoransky boasts the occasional big assist game, when Beal shares the ball. Jeff Green has played well as the starting small forward, but his upside is limited. Porter's is not. Now is the time to invest.
Other thoughts
- I long ago gave up on Utah Jazz guard Dante Exum in a dynasty league, as injuries derailed the former No. 5 overall pick, but he really was playing well of late before an ankle sprain. The timing is awful, because overrated Ricky Rubio has a hamstring injury and he should miss time. That could have been Exum's starting job. Raul Neto might move into the role, but in the end Donovan Mitchell and Joe Ingles will just get more usage.
- The run is over for Denver Nuggets forward Juancho Hernangomez now that Gary Harris and Paul Millsap are back from injuries, but it was fun for a while. Hernangomez averaged 12 and 6 during November/December. My eyes are on Sacramento Kings forwards Bogdan Bogdanovic and Nemanja Bjelica.
- Speaking of the Kings and dynasty leagues, patience was necessary for Buddy Hield but was there any doubt he would emerge as a consistent 20-point scorer? Only James Harden and Stephen Curry have made more 3-pointers. Memphis Grizzlies rookies Jaren Jackson is certainly not like Hield in that statistical respect, but he boasts enough range and I see a future superstar in Year 3.
- I got an up-close look at the Dallas Doncics over the weekend -- excuse me, the Dallas Mavericks -- and this is not a playoff team unless they suddenly move to the East, and I think point guard Dennis Smith Jr. is the unfortunate reason. I do not think Smith, who reminds me of Wall in several negative ways, can play with Luka Doncic, a seminal star with the potential for top-10 fantasy numbers. Doncic suffered through a brutal shooting night in Philadelphia, and many of the shots were wide open. He just missed them.
It was the end of a long road trip, but you can see an awesome future. Smith, however, not only remains a poor shooter, but he barely has the ball in his hands and clearly does not like it. He does not accrue assists anymore, but the turnovers are somehow up. He does not feel like rebounding. Look, this does not end well. I would seek a trade in a dynasty format for the former top-10 selection.
- Jimmy Butler investors should not worry about the recent dustup over his role in the 76ers offense, but then again, why should anyone be surprised? He is on his third team in two years for a reason, and he will never see the usage in Philadelphia he did in his past ports. Butler simply cannot average 20 points -- or, importantly, close to five assists -- on this team. He can, however, win and earn a max contract in Philly. We shall see if that is enough for him.