We're in the holiday season, and the smart shoppers know more than shopping for values. They also know when to either pass on a deal or, at times, re-gift an item to someone else.
Today, let's talk about players who make excellent trade bait to re-gift to someone else in your league. There's nothing necessarily wrong with these players (in most cases), but each of them has something that suggests they may be as valuable right now as they will ever be. Thus the only direction that their value can go from here is down.
Joel Embiid, C, Philadelphia 76ers
Embiid has played as well as anyone in the league this year. In points-based leagues he has the fourth-highest scoring average in standard ESPN scoring, behind only Anthony Davis and Giannis Antetokounmpo and in a virtual tie with Kevin Durant. In roto leagues, we currently have him ranked as seventh in the NBA in rest-of-season value. He is firmly in the conversation for best player overall in the Eastern Conference.
So why is there concern? Embiid was drafted in June 2014. From that date until the September 2018, a span that includes four full NBA seasons, injuries held Embiid to a total of 2,698 minutes played. This season, through 35 games, Embiid is only pace to play 2,697 minutes in this season alone. He has looked strong this season, and hopefully he continues on at this pace, but he's currently running four times beyond his average minutes rate in his career. Yes, he has built up slowly from not playing at all to 31 games to 63 over the past three seasons, and maybe he's ready for more. But this gives me pause.
A second trend to note is that Embiid's production is slightly down since Jimmy Butler came to town. He's still elite, but if you compare his last 19 games to his first 15, you find that Embiid's scoring volume is down 2.9 PPG, his free throws drawn are down 2.4 FTA per game, he's down 0.4 3PG with his 3P% down 3.7 percent, and he is turning the ball over 0.6 more times per game. Embiid has publicly taken issue with his role since Butler got to town, and it is affecting his stats. Put together with his injury history, it's enough for Embiid to lead the re-gift list as someone who should fetch a big haul in a fantasy basketball trade.
Draymond Green, PF, Golden State Warriors
Green has struggled with his shot a bit this season, but his all-around game still is enough to make him an impact fantasy starter. There's a big problem, though.
Boogie is coming.
While we don't know for sure what the Warriors will look like when DeMarcus Cousins is ready to start, I project that Cousins' production could come at the expense of Green, and to a lesser extent Klay Thompson. Thus, both could make good trade-now options because their value is likely better than it will be once Cousins is up and running.
Nikola Vucevic, C, Orlando Magic
Vucevic is in the midst of a career season, currently checking in at eighth in the NBA in fantasy points per game (ESPN standard scoring), just behind Kawhi Leonard but ahead of Stephen Curry. Vucevic is putting it all together and has proven to be one of the best offensive centers and overall producers in the NBA.
The problem is, Vucevic has not started more than 60 games in a season since 2014-15, and he has missed at least 17 games in three of the five seasons leading up to this one. His injury history is concerning, and the fact that he's currently notching dramatic career highs across the board indicates that he has maximized his upside. Add in that the Magic aren't a good team, and that they have two young high-lottery-pick big men that they are developing, Mo Bamba and Jonathan Isaac, and Vucevic has the feel of a player whose fantasy value could drop quite a bit without warning in the second half of the season.
Blake Griffin, PF, Detroit Pistons
Griffin has played in 31 of the Pistons' 32 games this season, leads the team with 35.9 MPG, and currently checks in at 19th in the NBA in fantasy points per game (ESPN standard), just behind Damian Lillard but ahead of Kyrie Irving. However, Griffin has missed a whopping 107 games due primarily to injury over the last four seasons. Griffin hasn't played this many minutes per game since the 2011-12 season, when he was only 22 years old.
Griffin will be 30 years old before the season ends, and he is another player who seems to have maximized his current level of output and minutes played while sporting an injury history that suggests now could be a good time to move him to someone else's fantasy basketball roster.
Kemba Walker, PG, Charlotte Hornets
Walker is averaging 25.2 PPG, 6.2 APG, 4.4 RPG and 3.2 3PG this season, all of which representing career bests in his eighth season. While he may very well be peaking this season, Walker still plays for a Hornets squad that is currently tied for the seventh/eight playoff seed in the Eastern Conference with a record under .500. The Hornets are only two games ahead of 10th place in the East, and have no upside to challenge any of the top-five teams in the conference. Walker is in the last year of a very affordable contract, which makes him an attractive trade target to teams that could use his talents to get over the top.
While the Hornets have shown no inclination to trade him, the risk is there that they either move on from the best player in franchise history or that they instead swing a deal to bring in more talent to help him out. Either of those would likely lead to lower numbers for Walker.