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, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
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Pitchers to stream Thursday
Four of Parker Messick's first six career outings have been quality starts, and the Cleveland Guardians are 4-2 when he takes the hill. On Thursday, Messick will start the biggest game of his fledgling career at home against the Detroit Tigers. The clubs are neck-and-neck in the AL Central heading into the finale of their three-game set. Messick's 2.08 ERA is artificially low, but 31 strikeouts to just five walks in his inaugural 34 2/3 innings is solid. The Tigers hit left-handers well, but Messick's recent success, home-field advantage and the importance of the game land the lefty in streaming territory.
Nick Lodolo's rostership is a few ticks above the usual 50% cutoff, but considering the Cincinnati Reds are battling for a playoff spot and the Pittsburgh Pirates are playing out the string, the Reds lefty warrants a streaming nod. Lodolo isn't excelling down the stretch, but his 23.8% strikeout rate is above average, and his 4.6% walk rate is well below the norm. The Pirates offense totes the third-lowest wOBA and second-highest strikeout rate versus lefties into the Great American Ballpark.
After an early September demotion to the bullpen, Michael Lorenzen re-entered the Kansas City Royals rotation and stifled the Toronto Blue Jays, limiting the AL East leaders to one run over 7 2/3 innings. Lorenzen's final start of the season is a juicy matchup with the Los Angeles Angels. Lorenzen isn't known for missing bats, but the Angels fan at the league's highest pace versus right-handers.
Pitchers to avoid Thursday
Thursday presents a challenging set of streamers. The rule of thumb is to prioritize starters pitching in a meaningful game for their team. The nuance here is that the two top-ranked pitchers rostered in fewer than 50% of ESPN leagues are working in a game with significant playoff implications for both teams. The first is Brayan Bello, who takes the hill for the Boston Red Sox in their road tilt with the Blue Jays. The Blue Jays have punched their postseason ticket, but they're still trying to lock down the AL East along with the No. 1 seed. The Red Sox control their wild card destiny but have not secured a playoff berth. Bello is in a rut, losing his last two outings. More importantly, even when on, the righty has not dominant, posting a pedestrian 17.9% strikeout rate, and the Blue Jays fan at one of the lowest clips in the league. This section is usually reserved for pitchers rostered in more than half of ESPN leagues, but since Bello is the slate's top ranked streamer, he merits a warning to avoid.
Hitters to stream Thursday
Braxton Ashcraft often gets lost in the shuffle of the young Pirates pitchers, but he's wrapping up an encouraging freshman season. That said, the 25-year-old righty's workload has been tempered down the stretch, so the Reds will also face a weak Pirates bullpen for much of their NL Central matchup. TJ Friedl, Spencer Steer, Noelvi Marte, Gavin Lux, Austin Hays and Tyler Stephenson are all in play to fortify a lineup on a day with just 12 games on the docket.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Because odds typically do not get set until the previous day's games are completed, betting tips will be added in the morning.