Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Sunday

ESPN Fantasy

Sep 21, 2025, 07:52 AM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

Jump to: Pitching notes | Hitting notes | Betting tips
Reliever depth chart

STARTING PITCHERS FOR SUNDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
14.1	Logan Gilbert	R	@HOU	96.6%	-145	8.5	66%	5.8	2.1	6.6
13.8	Sean Manaea	L	WSH	22.1%	-270	8.5	62%	5.7	1.8	6.3
11.6	Emmet Sheehan	R	SF	29.1%	-210	9.5	60%	5.2	2.3	6.5
11.6	Freddy Peralta	R	@STL	97.3%	-135	8.5	55%	5.6	2.2	5.8
11.6	Michael King	R	@CWS	81.2%	-180	8.5	61%	5.6	2.3	5.8
10.7	Ranger Suarez	L	@ARI	86.1%	-135	8.5	61%	5.7	2.6	5.8
9.6	Jameson Taillon	R	@CIN	21.0%	-105	8.5	56%	5.6	2.8	4.8
9.4	Ryan Pepiot	R	BOS	48.1%	+105	8.5	54%	5.1	2.3	4.9
9.1	Jake Irvin	R	@NYM	8.1%	+220	8.5	38%	5.6	2.5	4.7
9.1	Merrill Kelly	R	MIA	75.0%	-135	7.5	60%	5.6	2.9	5.1
8.5	Andrew Abbott	L	CHC	70.7%	-115	8.5	44%	5.6	3.0	5.3
8.4	Kyle Bradish	R	NYY	29.2%	+115	8.5	45%	5.0	2.6	5.5
8.4	Connelly Early	L	@TB	16.8%	-125	8.5	46%	5.0	2.4	5.0
8.1	Cam Schlittler	R	@BAL	27.6%	-135	8.5	55%	5.1	2.7	5.4
8.0	Simeon Woods Richardson	R	CLE	3.1%	+105	8.5	46%	4.8	2.2	4.7
7.9	Spencer Strider	R	@DET	71.0%	+105	8.5	48%	5.5	3.1	5.5
7.9	Jason Alexander	R	SEA	7.7%	+120	8.5	34%	5.4	2.7	4.9
7.5	Eury Perez	R	@TEX	20.8%	+115	7.5	40%	4.7	2.4	4.5
7.4	Jeffrey Springs	L	@PIT	14.5%	-110	8.5	51%	5.2	2.8	4.7
6.7	Eduardo Rodriguez	L	PHI	5.2%	+115	8.5	39%	5.2	3.1	5.1
6.5	Michael Wacha	R	TOR	20.3%	EVEN	8.5	55%	5.3	3.2	4.2
6.3	Joey Cantillo	L	@MIN	8.7%	-125	8.5	54%	4.6	2.7	5.3
6.2	Casey Mize	R	ATL	49.4%	-125	8.5	52%	5.0	2.9	4.2
6.2	Mike Burrows	R	ATH	4.3%	-110	8.5	49%	4.4	2.5	4.5
6.0	Matthew Liberatore	L	MIL	16.4%	+115	8.5	45%	4.7	2.5	4.1
5.9	Sean Burke	R	SD	2.5%	+150	8.5	39%	4.9	2.9	4.6
5.2	Trevor McDonald	R	@LAD	0.1%	+175	9.5	40%	4.9	3.1	4.5
4.6	Trey Yesavage	R	@KC	11.5%	-120	8.5	45%	4.3	2.8	4.0
-0.6	Caden Dana	R	@COL	0.2%	-115	11.5	51%	4.4	5.2	4.5
-1.2	Kyle Freeland	L	LAA	1.7%	-105	11.5	49%	4.8	5.8	4.4

Pitchers to stream Sunday

Like most of the Cleveland Guardians, Joey Cantillo has excelled down the stretch. Over his last five outings, he recorded a 1.21 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He's been a bit fortunate, but the right-hander doesn't hurt himself with walks or homers, so if regression strikes, the landing should be soft. The Minnesota Twins are trying to play spoiler, but Cantillo and the Guardians are favored in the finale of their four-game set at Target Field.
Emmet Sheehan has been piling up strikeouts, racking up 45 batters over his prior 35⅓ innings. He's slated to take the hill when the Los Angeles Dodgers host the San Francisco Giants. Heading into Saturday's action, the visitors sputtered to a 24-33 record after the break, falling out of wild card convention. The Dodgers are close to clinching the NL West, so expect them to play their regulars against the Giants, then perhaps rest them when the magic number is zero.
While it's risky to trust a rookie making just his third major league start, especially on the road, Connelly Early impressed the Boston Red Sox enough to stay in the rotation down the stretch. Early faced the Athletics in both of his outings, fanning 18 with just one walk and no homers allowed over 10⅓ innings. The Rays have struggled against southpaws all season, sporting the seventh highest strikeout rate and ninth lowest wOBA with a left-hander on the hill.

Pitchers to avoid Sunday

Michael King has not been sharp since returning from the IL, surrendering 10 earned runs in only eight innings over two starts. The San Diego Padres need him to return to form quickly but trusting him for a fantasy lineup is a risk, even facing the Chicago White Sox. The matchup is on the road, so King isn't protected by Petco Park. The White Sox offense has been sluggish all season, but King is vulnerable to the long ball and Rate Field embellished homers.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Sunday

Sunday is the last game of the season at Coors Field, and the Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Angels feature batters available in more than half of ESPN leagues. The primary candidate is Jo Adell and his 36 home runs as he'll enjoy the platoon edge over Kyle Freeland. Other Angels candidates include Yoan Moncada, Christian Moore and Logan O'Hoppe. Mickey Moniak, Blaine Crim, Brenton Doyle and Jordan Beck stand out for the Rockies, facing Caden Dana and his 8.19 ERA over 28 2/3 major league innings.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top HR prop bets

Heliot Ramos | OVER 0.5 HR (+475)
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.21 EV
One reason to bet this: The weather forecast projects temperatures in this contest to be the fifth-highest (81 degrees) out of all games on today's slate. This is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

Matt Chapman | OVER 0.5 HR (+400)
Projection: 23% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.60 EV
One reason to bet this: Chapman hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% -- 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's ninth-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

Paul Goldschmidt | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 12% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.35 EV
One reason to bet this: Goldschmidt has had bad variance on his side in 2025, when it comes to his home runs. His 11.7 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is deflated compared to his 16.3 expected HR/600, based on my projections.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Casey Mize | UNDER 4.5 K (-150)
Projection: 69% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.13 EV
One reason to bet this: Mize's 2,246-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 25th percentile among all SPs.

Jameson Taillon | UNDER 4.5 K (-125)
Projection: 62% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.30 EV
One reason to bet this: Among all starters, Taillon's fastball velocity of 91.7 mph grades out in the 22nd percentile this year.

Cam Schlittler | UNDER 6.5 K (-160)
Projection: 68% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.81 EV
One reason to bet this: Given the 0.7 deviation between Schlittler's 10.24 K/9 and his 9.54 estimated true-talent K/9 (via my projections), it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the league this year in terms of strikeouts. He should see worse results going forward.

Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets

Angels @ Rockies | YRFI (-160)
Projection: 66% chance of RUN with a $10.59 EV

Guardians @ Twins | NRFI (-105)
Projection: 53% chance of NO RUN with a $3.77 EV

Giants @ Dodgers | YRFI (-130)
Projection: 58% chance of RUN with a $4.00 EV