Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
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Reliever depth chart
Pitchers to stream Saturday
Over his past eight starts, Yu Darvish's ERA is 5.12, but his xFIP is 3.81. A delta this large indicates excess homers allowed, and sure enough, Darvish yielded at least one long ball in each game for a total of 10 spanning his prior 38⅔ innings. Though there could be some HR/FB misfortune, Darvish's command is likely also at fault. The San Diego Padres visit the Chicago White Sox, so homers shouldn't be a major issue. The White Sox's home run rate facing right-handers is the fifth lowest in MLB.
The Milwaukee Brewers are giving the ball to swingman Chad Patrick for Saturday's road date with the St. Louis Cardinals. Patrick is finishing the season in the rotation with Jose Quintana on the 15-day IL with a strained left calf. Patrick's past two appearances have been just one inning, but he should be able to give the club at least five frames. The Brewers should clinch the National League Central early next week, but the race for the NL's top seed could go down to the wire. The Cardinals were in play for the last wild card, but a 2-7 stretch heading into Friday's action knocked them out of contention.
Luis Morales is pitching himself into the Athletics' 2026 rotation with a strong couple of months. He debuted on Aug. 1 and has compiled a 3.08 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with 34 strikeouts over 38 frames. A 4.40 xFIP suggests Morales has been fortunate, but he's just 22 years old, so improving his skills could help fend off impending regression. Morales has a favorable schedule down the stretch, facing the Pittsburgh Pirates then the Kansas City Royals. The Pirates outing is a favorable matchup with Morales enjoying a park upgrade and facing a strikeout-prone lineup.
Pitchers to avoid Saturday
Bailey Ober fanned a season-high nine batters in his last outing. However, he is slated to take the hill for one leg of a doubleheader as the Twins play the Guardians, where he'll face a lineup striking out less down the stretch while winning 12 of 13 games heading into Friday's action. Especially in leagues with a games started limit, there are safer options.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
New York Mets pitchers vs. Nationals hitters
Offense: C | Park: A | Umpire: B | Temperature: C- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.89 ERA in this matchup.
Texas Rangers pitchers vs. Marlins hitters
Offense: B | Park: A | Umpire: D | Temperature: D+ | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.94 ERA in this matchup.
San Diego Padres pitchers vs. White Sox hitters
Offense: B | Park: D | Umpire: A+ | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.13 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Los Angeles Angels pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: B | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: C- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.70 ERA in this matchup.
Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Angels hitters
Offense: C | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: C- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.69 ERA in this matchup.
San Francisco Giants pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: C- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.57 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream Saturday
The Minnesota Twins host the red-hot Cleveland Guardians for a pair. The Guardians are back in the playoff picture and thus more likely to play their regulars in both ends. Kyle Manzardo, CJ Kayfus and Angel Martinez are the primary targets.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Rockies batters vs. Angels pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: B | Park: A+ | Umpire: B | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .379 wOBA in this matchup.
Angels batters vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: A | Park: A+ | Umpire: B | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .372 wOBA in this matchup.
Rangers LHB vs. Marlins pitchers
SP: A+ | Bullpen: B | Park: F | Umpire: B | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .350 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Washington Nationals RHB vs. Mets pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Umpire: D | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .276 wOBA in this matchup.
Cleveland Guardians RHB vs. Twins pitchers (Game 1)
SP: F | Bullpen: A+ | Park: B | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .277 wOBA in this matchup.
Kansas City Royals RHB vs. Blue Jays pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: D | Park: C | Umpire: D | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .291 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top home run prop bets
Giancarlo Stanton | OVER 0.5 HR (+325)
Projection: 27% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.13 EV
One reason to bet this: Stanton has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 106.3-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal EV of 97.7 mph.
Trent Grisham | OVER 0.5 HR (+375)
Projection: 24% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.72 EV
One reason to bet this: Grisham's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23 degrees and 34 degrees) has improved of late, going from 18.2% on the season to 42.9% in the past weeks worth of games.
Anthony Volpe | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 12% chance of this bet hitting, with a $6.83 EV
One reason to bet this: Volpe has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.4 mph to 98.2 mph in the past week.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Bubba Chandler | UNDER 4.5 K (+105)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.24 EV
One reason to bet this: PNC Park ranks as the No. 23 23 park in baseball for strikeouts, according to my projections.
Luis Morales | UNDER 4.5 K (+105)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.22 EV
One reason to bet this: According to my projections, Shea Langeliers (the Athletics' expected catcher today) is considered to be a weak pitch-framer.
Yu Darvish | UNDER 5.5 K (-160)
Projection: 65% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.22 EV
One reason to bet this: The No. 6 stadium in baseball for suppressing strikeouts, per my projections, is Guaranteed Rate Field.
Today's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets
Angels @ Rockies | YRFI (-150)
Projection: 64% chance of RUN with a $9.05 EV
Giants @ Dodgers | YRFI (-120)
Projection: 56% chance of RUN with a $3.16 EV
Yankees @ Orioles | YRFI (-115)
Projection: 55% chance of RUN with a $2.63 EV