Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Saturday

ESPN Fantasy

Sep 13, 2025, 08:35 AM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR SATURDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
14.8	Dylan Cease	R	COL	91.6%	-350	8.5	72%	5.8	1.9	7.1
14.5	Bryan Woo	R	LAA	96.7%	-215	7.5	70%	5.8	1.8	6.0
12.3	Hunter Greene	R	@ATH	95.7%	-115	9.5	49%	5.7	2.4	6.6
11.1	Brandon Sproat	R	TEX	9.1%	-165	8.5	62%	5.6	2.2	5.5
10.7	Joe Ryan	R	ARI	97.3%	-145	8.5	51%	5.5	2.6	5.8
10.4	Logan Webb	R	LAD	98.8%	+105	7.5	45%	6.0	2.6	5.5
10.3	Luis Severino	R	CIN	18.5%	-105	9.5	51%	5.8	2.6	5.4
9.6	Sonny Gray	R	@MIL	93.0%	+145	7.5	56%	5.5	2.8	5.8
9.6	Patrick Corbin	L	@NYM	5.7%	+140	8.5	38%	5.5	2.2	5.0
9.6	Hunter Brown	R	@ATL	99.3%	-135	8.5	55%	5.4	2.6	5.7
9.2	Max Scherzer	R	BAL	25.3%	-175	8.5	52%	5.1	2.5	5.0
8.6	Max Fried	L	@BOS	99.1%	-145	8.5	53%	5.6	3.1	5.7
8.6	Parker Messick	L	CWS	17.0%	-175	7.5	52%	5.5	2.9	5.4
8.4	Clayton Kershaw	L	@SF	43.1%	-125	7.5	55%	4.8	2.0	4.1
8.3	Charlie Morton	R	@MIA	9.6%	-130	8.5	50%	5.4	2.7	5.1
8.0	Ryne Nelson	R	@MIN	28.7%	+120	8.5	49%	5.3	2.8	4.8
7.6	Drew Rasmussen	R	@CHC	73.8%	EVEN	8.5	54%	4.3	1.8	3.9
7.5	Janson Junk	R	DET	3.5%	+110	8.5	50%	5.3	2.7	4.1
7.4	Jacob Misiorowski	R	STL	68.9%	-175	7.5	44%	4.3	2.2	5.5
7.4	Colin Rea	R	TB	9.9%	-120	8.5	46%	5.4	2.9	4.5
7.3	Ryan Bergert	R	@PHI	8.0%	+130	9.5	50%	5.0	2.7	4.8
7.2	Mitch Farris	L	@SEA	1.8%	+180	7.5	30%	4.6	2.3	4.5
7.0	Davis Martin	R	@CLE	2.8%	+145	7.5	48%	5.2	2.9	4.4
6.9	Tomoyuki Sugano	R	@TOR	8.9%	+145	8.5	48%	5.4	2.9	3.9
6.6	Andrew Alvarez	L	PIT	2.4%	-125	8.5	48%	4.6	2.5	4.5
6.3	Brayan Bello	R	NYY	43.5%	+120	8.5	47%	5.4	3.4	5.1
5.5	Bryce Elder	R	HOU	13.1%	+115	8.5	45%	5.4	3.6	4.7
5.0	Taijuan Walker	R	KC	4.4%	-155	9.5	50%	5.1	3.2	3.7
4.8	Bubba Chandler	R	@WSH	13.1%	+105	8.5	52%	4.2	2.7	4.0
4.4	Bradley Blalock	R	@SD	0.1%	+280	8.5	28%	5.1	3.0	3.6

Pitchers to stream Saturday

Formulaic rankings ignore recency bias, which is a good and bad thing. Using the Texas Rangers as an example, through August 21, the club sported the fourth-lowest wOBA in the league. After that, they won 14 of 18 games, fueled by the sixth-highest wOBA over that span. Currently, they check in with the fifth-worst wOBA for the season, driving Brandon Sproat's high ranking when the New York Mets host the Rangers. The Rangers' recent success adds an added layer of risk, but the larger season-long sample is more predictive than a shorter three-week hot streak.
Luis Severino's home and away splits continue to be exaggerated, with the perception he's being hurt by Sutter Health Park. However, his xFIP is lower in Sacramento than on the road; Severino has been victimized by a .349 BABIP and 58.8% left on base mark at home. The venue does not significantly influence either; Severino has just pitched into some bad luck at home. Accordingly, Severino is in an under-the-radar favorable spot when the Athletics host the Cincinnati Reds. There is strikeout upside in this matchup, and Severino has fanned 41 over his last 37 2/3 innings.
Clayton Kershaw isn't the workhorse he was in his earlier days, but he remains effective, as evidenced by a 6-0 record over his previous seven efforts in which he recorded a 2.75 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. The Los Angeles Dodgers visit the San Francisco Giants in an NL West matchup with playoff implications for both teams. The Giants are within striking range of the third NL wild card, despite sporting the league's lowest wOBA facing left-handed pitching.

Pitchers to avoid Saturday

The Tampa Bay Rays have done a good job of managing Drew Rasmussen's workload after he tossed only 36 innings between the majors and minors last season. He enters Saturday's road affair with the Chicago Cubs only 6 1/3 innings shy of his career high of 146 frames, established in 2022. The right-hander may be showing signs of fatigue with only four strikeouts over his last two games, each five-inning efforts. Also, he yielded three homers to the Seattle Mariners two starts ago and walked three last time out, tying his season high for free passes allowed. Trusting Rasmussen against a lesser lineup is defensible, but the Cubs boast one of the strongest lineups in the league, especially at home.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream Saturday

Mitch Farris and his 2.45 ERA after his first two starts for the Los Angeles Angels seems impressive, but the associated 4.92 xFIP and 5.13 SIERA warn of an impending correction. With Cal Raleigh leading the way, the Seattle Mariners surprisingly sport the league's third-highest home run rate and 12th-best wOBA despite playing half of its games in T-Mobile Park, an extreme pitcher's venue.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top home run prop bets

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | OVER 0.5 HR (+375)
Projection: 23% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.73 EV
One reason to bet this: My projection system ranks Rogers Centre as the third-best ballpark in baseball for right-handed home runs.

Miguel Vargas | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 12% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.01 EV

Yordan Alvarez | OVER 0.5 HR (+300)
Projection: 27% chance of this bet hitting, with a $6.88 EV
One reason to bet this: High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report calls for the third-hottest temperature on the schedule today at 82 degrees.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Jacob Misiorowski | UNDER 6.5 Ks (-105)
Projection: 65% chance of this bet hitting, with a $28.11 EV
One reason to bet this: With a 2.06 difference between Misiorowski's 12.60 K/9 and his 10.54 estimated true talent K/9 (via my projections), its safe to say he has been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball this year in terms of strikeouts and ought to perform worse the rest of the season.

Clayton Kershaw | UNDER 3.5 Ks (+105)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.73 EV

Mitch Farris | UNDER 5.5 Ks (-165)
Projection: 70% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.05 EV
One reason to bet this: With seven bats of the opposite hand in the opposing team's projected offense, Farris will have a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's outing.

Today's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets

Rays @ Cubs | NRFI (-105)
Projection: 55% chance of NO RUN with a $7.20 EV

Tigers @ Marlins | NRFI (-105)
Projection: 53% chance of NO RUN with a $3.90 EV

Rangers @ Mets | YRFI (-115)
Projection: 54% chance of RUN with a $1.75 EV