Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Thursday

ESPN Fantasy

Sep 10, 2025, 03:55 PM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

Jump to: Pitching notes | Hitting notes | Betting tips
Reliever depth chart

STARTING PITCHERS FOR THURSDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	ER	K
13.3	Jesus Luzardo	L	NYM	82.2%	50%	5.9	2.2	6.9
12.4	David Peterson	L	@PHI	45.0%	50%	5.9	2.3	6.3
11.7	Bryce Miller	R	LAA	51.7%	58%	5.4	2.0	5.4
11.7	Ryan Weathers	L	WSH	2.3%	60%	5.4	2.0	5.8
10.8	Kevin Gausman	R	HOU	90.6%	59%	6.0	2.7	5.6
10.2	Ian Seymour	L	@CWS	6.3%	50%	4.8	1.8	4.6
9.8	Yusei Kikuchi	L	@SEA	62.2%	42%	5.5	2.5	6.0
9.7	Cam Schlittler	R	DET	25.8%	60%	5.0	2.2	5.4
9.5	Shane Smith	R	TB	10.3%	50%	5.2	2.3	5.0
9.2	Randy Vasquez	R	COL	1.4%	65%	5.2	2.2	4.0
7.6	Cristian Javier	R	@TOR	6.7%	41%	4.8	2.2	4.3
7.3	Sawyer Gipson-Long	R	@NYY	0.2%	40%	4.7	2.6	5.0
7.2	Johan Oviedo	R	@BAL	1.6%	52%	4.5	2.3	4.7
7.2	Stephen Kolek	R	@CLE	4.3%	50%	5.2	2.8	4.8
7.1	Gavin Williams	R	KC	39.1%	50%	5.0	2.7	4.9
6.7	Cade Povich	L	PIT	1.3%	48%	5.2	3.2	5.0
6.4	Brad Lord	R	@MIA	1.1%	40%	4.7	2.4	4.2
5.7	McCade Brown	R	@SD	0.2%	35%	4.1	2.1	4.0

Pitchers to stream Thursday

Gavin Williams yielded just one run over seven innings in each of his last two outings, dropping his ERA since the break to 2.19 to go along with a 1.05 WHIP and 51 strikeouts in 53 innings. Williams might not rack up his usual punchouts when the Cleveland Guardians host the Kansas City Royals, but he'll face the lineup with the eighth-lowest wOBA facing right-handers this season.
After serving as the opener for his 2025 debut in early August, Johan Oviedo quickly transitioned to a traditional starter and has posted a 1.89 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over his last four outings. Eight walks in 19 innings were a bit generous, but striking out 21 while allowing only two homers prevented most of the traffic from crossing the plate. Oviedo will face a lineup that striking out at an elevated clip down the stretch when the Pittsburgh Pirates visit the Baltimore Orioles.

Pitchers to avoid Thursday

Ian Seymour's ERA over his last three games is 1.29 with a 1.00 WHIP. He fanned an impressive 21 batters with just four walks over that 14-inning span. It should be noted that nine runs were scored when Seymour was on the hill over this stretch, but only two were earned. On the surface, Seymour appears to be a solid streamer with the Tampa Bay Rays visiting the Chicago White Sox. Samples against left-handed pitching can be misleading, but extremes in small samples can be telling, and the White Sox have struck out only 15.2% of the time against southpaws over the last month, resulting in an above-average wOBA. Even on an abbreviated slate, it's best to consider other streaming options before trusting Seymour.

Hitters to stream Thursday

Two of McCade Brown's three MLB starts came at Coors Field, helping explain his 12.54 ERA and 2.36 WHIP. However, he struggled on the road in his major league debut and carries limited, if any, prospect pedigree into the rematch with the San Diego Padres. The Colorado Rockies hosted the Padres last week; this time the teams meet at Petco Park. Ryan O'Hearn, Ramon Laureano, Gavin Sheets and Jackson Merrill make up the fourth through seventh spots in the Padres' order against righties, and all line up for productive games.

Hitters to avoid Thursday

Over the last month, the Detroit Tigers have surrendered the fewest steals while catching the most players attempting to steal. Meanwhile, the New York Yankees pilfered the third most bases in that span, with Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jose Caballero leading the way. Chisholm contributes across the board, so fantasy managers should keep him in the lineup. Normally, trying to cop a steal by using Caballero on an abbreviated slate is sage, but in this case it's best to look elsewhere for needed stolen bases.

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Because odds typically do not get set until the previous day's games are completed, betting tips will be added in the morning.