Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.
Jump to: Pitching notes | Hitting notes | Betting tips
Reliever depth chart
Pitchers to stream on Monday
Ryan Bergert is only 1-1 in his 13 starts but his ERA is 2.57 with a 1.05 WHIP. He's punched out 63 in those 65 innings, but Bergert has been a bit generous with walks and homers. Since being acquired by the Kansas City Royals at the trade deadline, he sports a 2.43 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Bergert opens the fantasy week with a road start against a Cleveland Guardians offense averaging the fewest runs per game over the last month.
Since the break, Yu Darvish recorded a 5.61 ERA, but his 4.16 xFIP suggests he's an above-average pitcher. His main issue is homers and on Monday, the San Diego Padres righty faces the Cincinnati Reds in Petco Park. Not only do the Reds carry the third-lowest home run rate over the past month, but they'll also experience a steep park downgrade.
Jose Quintana registered a quality start in four of his previous six outings, including last time out against the potent Philadelphia Phillies. The Milwaukee Brewers seek to build on MLB's best record in Arlington against the Texas Rangers. The veteran lefty will face a depleted lineup missing Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia.
Pitchers to avoid on Monday
Aaron Nola has struggled since missing three months with ankle and rib issues. After coming off the IL, he's posted an 8.38 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Meanwhile, the New York Mets lead the league in runs per game over the past month. Despite his successful track record, it's best to avoid Nola when the Phillies host the Mets in the opener of a key NL East matchup.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Seattle Mariners pitchers vs. Cardinals hitters
Offense: C | Park: A | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: C+ | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.53 ERA in this matchup.
Milwaukee Brewers pitchers vs. Rangers hitters
Offense: B | Park: A | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: B- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.66 ERA in this matchup.
Texas Rangers pitchers vs. Brewers hitters
Offense: C | Park: A | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: B- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.74 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: C | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.92 ERA in this matchup.
Chicago Cubs pitchers vs. Braves hitters
Offense: F | Park: D | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.99 ERA in this matchup.
New York Mets pitchers vs. Phillies hitters
Offense: F | Park: D | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: B- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.80 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Monday
Nabil Crismatt has posted a tidy 2.14 ERA over four outings, but has punched out just 14 hitters in 21 frames, and his 1.33 WHIP indicates he's vulnerable. The Arizona Diamondbacks visit the San Francisco Giants in a matchup of NL West clubs. The Giants boast the fifth-best wOBA facing right-handers over the past month. Heliot Ramos, Willy Adames, Dominic Smith, Casey Schmitt and Matt Chapman are the primary beneficiaries.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Los Angeles Dodgers LHB vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: C | Park: A | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .346 wOBA in this matchup.
Boston Red Sox LHB vs. Athletics pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: A+ | Park: B | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: A | Away
The average hitter would post a .339 wOBA in this matchup.
San Francisco Giants RHB vs. Diamondbacks pitchers
SP: A+ | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Framing: D | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .331 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
St. Louis Cardinals batters vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: F | Framing: F | Temperature: C | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .266 wOBA in this matchup.
Arizona Diamondbacks RHB vs. Giants pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: A+ | Park: C | Framing: F | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .278 wOBA in this matchup.
Cincinnati Reds RHB vs. Padres pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: F | Park: D | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .286 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top home run prop bets
Seiya Suzuki | OVER 0.5 HR (+525)
Projection: 18% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.94 EV
One reason to bet this: Suzuki's recent average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (20.7 degrees over the past two weeks) is a significant increase over his 15.7 degrees for the season.
Ronald Acuna Jr. | OVER 0.5 HR (+375)
Projection: 23% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.73 EV
One reason to bet this: Acuna's Barrel% has significantly improved from 9.5% last year to 16.0% this season.
Marcell Ozuna | OVER 0.5 HR (+450)
Projection: 19% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.20 EV
One reason to bet this: The weather is projected for the third-best hitting weather of all games on today's slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Shota Imanaga | UNDER 4.5 K (-110)
Projection: 56% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.36 EV
One reason to bet this: The weather is projected for the third-best hitting weather of all games on today's slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.
Ryan Bergert | UNDER 4.5 K (-115)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $4.15 EV
One reason to bet this: The Cleveland Guardians have eight hitters in their projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage over Bergert in today's game.
Bryce Elder | OVER 3.5 K (-140)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $4.65 EV
One reason to bet this: Throwing 92.3 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Elder places in the 80th percentile.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bet
Cubs @ Braves | YRFI (-110)
Projection: 53% chance of RUN with a $1.38 EV