Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Saturday

ESPN Fantasy

Sep 5, 2025, 02:44 PM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR SATURDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	ER	K
13.9	Tarik Skubal	L	CWS	99.9%	59%	6.0	2.2	6.4
13.8	Jesus Luzardo	L	@MIA	80.3%	65%	6.0	2.1	6.5
12.8	Matthew Boyd	L	WSH	82.1%	67%	5.7	2.0	5.8
11.3	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	R	@BAL	99.3%	61%	5.9	2.6	6.0
11.1	Jacob deGrom	R	HOU	98.0%	64%	5.4	2.3	5.4
10.5	Luis Gil	R	TOR	30.9%	57%	5.4	2.2	5.5
10.0	Brandon Woodruff	R	@PIT	72.4%	56%	5.4	2.3	5.2
9.8	Shane Baz	R	CLE	29.5%	50%	5.5	2.5	5.4
9.8	Tanner Bibee	R	@TB	66.9%	50%	5.8	2.8	5.3
9.7	Joe Ryan	R	@KC	98.2%	51%	5.7	2.9	5.4
9.2	Sandy Alcantara	R	PHI	50.8%	35%	5.7	2.6	5.1
8.9	Justin Verlander	R	@STL	10.5%	49%	5.5	2.5	4.9
8.6	Lucas Giolito	R	@ARI	39.4%	57%	5.5	2.9	5.3
8.3	Brady Singer	R	NYM	43.5%	47%	5.5	3.1	5.5
8.1	Max Scherzer	R	@NYY	23.8%	43%	5.1	2.6	4.7
8.1	Brandon Pfaadt	R	BOS	56.2%	43%	5.5	3.1	5.4
8.0	Jonah Tong	R	@CIN	28.5%	53%	5.5	3.2	5.6
7.9	Mitch Keller	R	MIL	48.7%	44%	5.6	2.9	4.8
7.9	Bryce Miller	R	@ATL	51.4%	56%	5.2	2.9	4.7
7.8	Yusei Kikuchi	L	ATH	64.4%	54%	5.5	3.3	5.7
7.2	Martin Perez	L	@DET	5.3%	41%	5.2	2.8	4.6
7.2	Andre Pallante	R	SF	3.4%	51%	5.3	2.7	4.2
7.2	Trevor Rogers	L	LAD	76.8%	39%	5.4	2.9	4.7
6.2	Luis Garcia	R	@TEX	5.8%	36%	4.8	2.9	4.6
6.0	J.T. Ginn	R	@LAA	1.1%	46%	4.8	3.0	4.9
5.8	Michael King	R	@COL	85.3%	63%	5.2	4.4	6.4
5.4	Hurston Waldrep	R	SEA	57.4%	44%	5.0	3.2	5.0
5.2	Brad Lord	R	@CHC	1.2%	33%	4.6	2.7	4.1
4.7	Stephen Kolek	R	MIN	2.6%	49%	5.1	3.4	4.4
-1.5	McCade Brown	R	SD	0.3%	37%	4.3	5.2	4.5

Pitchers to stream Saturday

After posting a 9.32 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in his first six starts coming out of the break, Shane Baz recorded a quality start in each of his past two outings. While his walk rate was a bit high during the struggle, he was victimized by a .385 BABIP and 25.7% home run rate over that stretch. He settled down with 13 punchouts and only four free passes with no homers allowed over his last 12 stanzas. Strikeouts could be hard to come by when the Tampa Bay Rays host the Cleveland Guardians, but a third straight quality start is attainable facing one of the less potent lineups in the league.
Luis Garcia is set for his second start of the season after rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. He logged a quality start in his debut, striking out six with no walks, but the Houston Astros righty allowed two homers to the Los Angeles Angels. Next up is a road date with the Texas Rangers. One-year park factors are suspect, but Globe Life Park is playing extremely pitcher-friendly this season, and the Rangers are missing Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Evan Carter and perhaps Adolis Garcia.
Lucas Giolito is 4-0 with a 2.27 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over his last seven outings, registering a quality start in each of his prior two efforts. The Boston Red Sox are in the desert for an interleague set with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Despite thinning their lineup at the trade deadline, the Diamondbacks still sport an above-average lineup, but Giolito has stepped up his game down the stretch.

Pitcher to avoid Saturday

Since being roughed up in his debut in early August, Luis Gil posted a 2.42 ERA, albeit with a high 1.46 WHIP due to 15 walks in 26 innings. However, he fanned 26 while allowing only two homers in that span, and in his last outing, Gil issued just two free passes in 5⅔ innings while racking up seven punchouts. On tap is his biggest challenge so far when he faces the Toronto Blue Jays in the Bronx. Even though Gil is highly ranked on Saturday's pitching chart, the Blue Jays tote a potent offense into Yankee Stadium. It's best to look elsewhere for a streaming option.

Hitters to stream Saturday

Brad Lord appears to be running out of gas for the Washington Nationals. After recording a solid 3.26 ERA and 1.22 over his first 91 innings, he has pitched to a 12.08 ERA and 2.05 WHIP spanning his last three efforts, fueled by surrendering six walks and four homers in only 12⅓ innings. The Chicago Cubs are poised to take advantage when Lord takes the hill at Wrigley Field. Dansby Swanson, Michael Busch and Matt Shaw are the primary beneficiaries.

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Because odds typically do not get set until the previous day's games are completed, betting tips will be added in the morning.