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, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.
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Pitchers to stream on Saturday
Edward Cabrera rebounded from a couple of subpar outings with a gem in his last time out, posting seven scoreless frames against the Atlanta Braves, allowing just one hit while fanning 10. He is staying in the NL East for a road date with the New York Mets. It's clearly not an easy matchup, but Cabrera has earned the trust to start, regardless of the opponent.
After recording a 4.91 ERA and an 1.84 WHIP over his first three starts, Cam Schlittler has since posted a 1.63 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP with 31 punchouts over his last five outings (27 2/3 IP). The 24-year-old rookie lines up for another solid effort when the New York Yankees visit the Chicago White Sox. For the season, the White Sox sport the second-lowest wOBA versus right-handers, though to be fair they have been more productive since the break.
Based on Spencer Arrighetti's numbers since coming off the IL at the beginning of the month, he's a risk. Don't believe me? Check out his 6.52 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in four August starts. However, three of those four games were on the road and against productive lineups. On Saturday, Arrighetti enjoys a favorable home tilt against the Los Angeles Angels and the league's highest strikeout rate facing right-handed pitching. Maybe we'll give him a chance.
Pitchers to avoid on Saturday
August has been uneven for Jack Flaherty as he's woven two quality starts amid three subpar efforts, resulting in a 6.33 ERA and 1.37 WHIP this month. With the fantasy playoffs on the line, Flaherty is too much of a risk as the Detroit Tigers visit the pesky Kansas City Royals. Strikeouts will be hard to come by since the Royals fan at the second-lowest pace in the league versus righties.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
New York Mets pitchers vs. Marlins hitters
Offense: B | Park: A | Umpire: C | Temperature: D+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.49 ERA in this matchup.
New York Yankees pitchers vs. White Sox hitters
Offense: B | Park: D | Umpire: B | Temperature: B- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.06 ERA in this matchup.
Washington Nationals pitchers vs. Rays hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.11 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Cubs hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: B | Temperature: B- | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 6.13 ERA in this matchup.
Arizona Diamondbacks pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.66 ERA in this matchup.
Chicago Cubs pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: B | Park: F | Umpire: B | Temperature: B- | Wind: B | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.30 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Saturday
The top locale for hitters is Coors Field with the Chicago Cubs visiting the Colorado Rockies. Having said that, it's surprising that three key Boston Red Sox hitters are still available in around two-thirds of all ESPN leagues. Roman Anthony, Trevor Story and Ceddanne Rafaela are all strong streaming candidates as Boston welcomes the Pittsburgh Pirates to Fenway Park.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Rockies batters vs. Cubs pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: C | Park: A+ | Umpire: F | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: D | Home
The average hitter would post a .362 wOBA in this matchup.
Cubs LHB vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: C | Park: A+ | Umpire: F | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .361 wOBA in this matchup.
Texas Rangers LHB vs. Athletics pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: A | Park: B | Umpire: A | Framing: A | Temperature: A+ | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .356 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Philadelphia Phillies LHB vs. Braves pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: B | Park: B | Umpire: C | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .270 wOBA in this matchup.
Pittsburgh Pirates RHB vs. Red Sox pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: A | Umpire: D | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .286 wOBA in this matchup.
Milwaukee Brewers RHB vs. Blue Jays pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: D | Park: C | Umpire: F | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .288 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top home run prop bets
Oneil Cruz | OVER 0.5 HR (+525)
Projection: 18% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.00 EV
One reason to bet this: Cruz hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.8%, 85th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseballs third-shallowest CF fences in today's game.
Lawrence Butler | OVER 0.5 HR (+425)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $4.95 EV
One reason to bet this: The weather report expects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 96 degrees, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
Daulton Varsho | OVER 0.5 HR (+525)
Projection: 17% chance of this bet hitting, with a $4.56 EV
One reason to bet this: Rogers Centre ranks as the No. 3 ballpark in the league for LHB home runs, per my projections.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Trevor Rogers | UNDER 5.5 K (-155)
Projection: 76% chance of this bet hitting, with a $37.78 EV
One reason to bet this: With seven batters who hit from the other side in the opposing teams projected lineup, Trevor Rogers will be in a tough position while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.
Cam Schlittler | UNDER 5.5 K (-120)
Projection: 65% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.98 EV
One reason to bet this: Considering the 0.47 discrepancy between Schlittlers' 9.78 K/9 and his 9.31 estimated true talent K/9 (via my projections), it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in MLB this year as it relates to strikeouts and should see worse results the rest of the season.
Cristopher Sanchez | UNDER 5.5 K (+110)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.43 EV
One reason to bet this: Sanchez has experienced some positive variance in regards to his strikeouts this year, posting a 9.59 K/9 despite my projections estimating his true talent level to be 9.26 -- a 0.34 K/9 discrepancy.
Today's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets
Diamondbacks @ Dodgers | YRFI (-120)
Projection: 56% chance of RUN with a $3.02 EV
Brewers @ Blue Jays | NRFI (-115)
Projection: 54% chance of NO RUN with a $0.71 EV
Brewers @ Blue Jays | NRFI (-115)
Projection: 54% chance of NO RUN with a $0.71 EV