Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Sunday

ESPN Fantasy

Aug 31, 2025, 07:30 AM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR SUNDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
13.4	Jesus Luzardo	L	ATL	78.5%	-155	8.5	69%	5.8	2.2	6.7
13.0	Tarik Skubal	L	@KC	99.9%	-180	7.5	57%	6.0	2.4	6.3
12.4	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	R	ARI	99.3%	-210	8.5	65%	5.9	2.2	6.0
12.2	Hunter Brown	R	LAA	99.2%	-180	7.5	56%	5.6	2.2	6.3
11.7	Brandon Woodruff	R	@TOR	80.4%	+105	8.5	65%	5.5	2.1	5.2
11.7	Jacob deGrom	R	@ATH	97.9%	-155	9.5	64%	5.4	2.2	5.7
11.5	Kodai Senga	R	MIA	78.2%	-180	8.5	58%	5.5	2.0	5.4
10.7	Joe Ryan	R	SD	97.9%	-135	8.5	47%	5.6	2.5	5.8
10.3	Luis Gil	R	@CWS	33.1%	-190	8.5	54%	5.4	2.2	5.6
10.1	Sandy Alcantara	R	@NYM	46.9%	+150	8.5	42%	5.8	2.3	5.0
9.5	Tanner Bibee	R	SEA	68.4%	EVEN	8.5	53%	5.6	2.9	5.7
9.2	Brady Singer	R	STL	43.5%	-145	8.5	50%	5.5	2.8	5.5
9.0	Jose Soriano	R	@HOU	18.5%	+150	7.5	44%	5.4	2.4	5.3
8.9	Bryce Miller	R	@CLE	51.6%	-120	8.5	47%	5.3	2.6	5.0
8.8	Max Scherzer	R	MIL	37.5%	-125	8.5	35%	5.2	2.4	4.7
8.8	Justin Verlander	R	BAL	10.0%	-135	8.5	49%	5.5	2.6	5.0
8.6	Brandon Pfaadt	R	@LAD	57.1%	+175	8.5	35%	5.5	2.8	5.3
8.4	Martin Perez	L	NYY	4.0%	+160	8.5	46%	5.2	2.5	4.8
8.4	Ian Seymour	L	@WSH	4.2%	-150	8.5	61%	4.2	1.8	4.2
8.1	Tomoyuki Sugano	R	@SF	12.3%	+115	8.5	51%	5.5	2.6	4.0
7.1	Michael Wacha	R	DET	26.0%	+150	7.5	43%	5.4	3.1	4.7
6.8	Andre Pallante	R	@CIN	3.7%	+120	8.5	50%	5.3	3.0	4.6
6.5	Lucas Giolito	R	PIT	37.2%	-180	8.5	56%	5.4	3.5	5.0
6.2	J.T. Ginn	R	TEX	1.3%	+130	9.5	36%	4.7	2.7	4.7
6.1	Mitch Keller	R	@BOS	49.2%	+150	8.5	44%	5.4	3.6	5.1
5.8	Hurston Waldrep	R	@PHI	55.8%	+130	8.5	31%	4.9	2.8	4.7
5.1	Brad Lord	R	TB	1.6%	+125	8.5	39%	4.7	3.0	4.4
4.8	Kyle Hart*	L	@MIN	0.2%	+115	8.5	53%	4.2	2.5	3.6
4.6	Matthew Boyd	L	@COL	85.3%	-250	11.5	68%	5.2	4.6	5.2
-6.5	Tanner Gordon	R	CHC	0.6%	+205	11.5	32%	4.3	6.9	3.7

Pitchers to stream Sunday

Luis Gil's control has been suspect since debuting in early August, as shown by 17 walks in 24 innings. However, he has limited damage by yielding just one home run this month. The New York Yankees close August with a road date against the Chicago White Sox. Gil faces a lineup with the seventh-lowest walk rate for the past month, so free passes might not be as much of an issue.
After struggling in his first start after the break, Brady Singer has been on a roll, recording a 1.80 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over six starts, with an uncharacteristically high 39 strikeouts in 35 frames. He has a chance to continue padding his punchouts when the Cincinnati Reds host the St. Louis Cardinals. Singer squares off with the lineup sporting the second-highest strikeout total facing righties over the last month.
Those exhibiting patience with Sandy Alcantara have been rewarded with a 3.07 ERA and 1.02 WHIP spanning his last seven starts, with 40 strikeouts over his past 44 innings. Next up is a familiar foe, as the Miami Marlins visit the New York Mets. It's not an ideal matchup with the Mets handling right-handed pitching well lately, but Alcantara has tossed seven innings four times in his previous seven efforts, an underappreciated element of points-league scoring.

Pitcher to avoid Sunday

Hurston Waldrep's 0.90 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over five outings are pristine, but he's yet to face a top-10 offense, facing teams with the 13th, 14th, 28th and 30th highest wOBA versus right-handers. That changes Sunday when the Atlanta Braves wrap up a road set with the Philadelphia Phillies. Waldrep is off to a great start, but he's unproven and likely too risky, especially for those battling for a fantasy playoff berth.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream Sunday

Brad Lord heads into the last day of August with a 5.47 ERA and 1.56 WHIP for the month. It isn't likely to get much better with a road tilt between the Washington Nationals and Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays are in a bit of a rut, but Brandon Lowe, Chandler Simpson and Josh Lowe are all in a favorable spot against the vulnerable right-hander.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top home run prop bets

Matt Chapman | OVER 0.5 HR (+475)

Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.34 EV
One reason to bet this: Compared to last season, Chapman has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23-34 degrees from 11.2% to 16.8% this season.

Willy Adames | OVER 0.5 HR (+475)

Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.67 EV
One reason to bet this: This matchup is expected to have the fifth-most suitable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.

Trent Grisham | OVER 0.5 HR (+500)

Projection: 19% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.92 EV
One reason to bet this: The No. 8 field in MLB for boosting home runs to left-handed batters, via my projections, is Guaranteed Rate Field.

Today's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets

Rays @ Nationals | NRFI (-110)
Projection: 56% chance of NO RUN with a $8.34 EV

Cubs @ Rockies | YRFI (-135)
Projection: 61% chance of RUN with a $7.55 EV

Orioles @ Giants | YRFI (-100)
Projection: 51% chance of RUN with a $1.68 EV