Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Saturday

ESPN Fantasy

Aug 22, 2025, 03:39 PM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR SATURDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	ER	K
13.2	Tyler Glasnow	R	@SD	88.3%	48%	5.7	1.9	6.4
11.8	Garrett Crochet	L	@NYY	99.9%	52%	5.3	2.1	6.7
11.7	George Kirby	R	ATH	85.6%	56%	5.8	2.4	5.7
10.6	Freddy Peralta	R	SF	96.7%	52%	5.5	2.5	5.9
10.0	Aaron Nola	R	WSH	68.9%	65%	5.8	3.0	5.9
10.0	Andrew Abbott	L	@ARI	81.8%	63%	5.7	2.6	4.9
9.9	Will Warren	R	BOS	22.3%	48%	5.3	2.4	5.6
9.8	Logan Webb	R	@MIL	98.6%	48%	6.0	2.9	5.6
9.6	Jeffrey Springs	L	@SEA	18.6%	44%	5.3	2.3	5.0
9.6	Dean Kremer	R	HOU	14.1%	53%	5.8	2.7	4.9
9.3	Jose Berrios	R	@MIA	66.6%	56%	5.7	2.7	4.8
9.3	Nestor Cortes	L	LAD	13.6%	52%	5.5	2.5	5.2
9.0	Michael Wacha	R	@DET	29.7%	57%	5.5	2.7	4.8
8.4	Cade Horton	R	@LAA	23.1%	60%	4.9	2.4	4.7
8.2	Davis Martin	R	MIN	2.0%	56%	5.4	2.8	4.7
7.2	Logan Allen	L	@TEX	5.7%	51%	5.2	3.0	4.8
7.0	Janson Junk	R	TOR	5.0%	44%	5.3	2.7	3.7
6.9	Mike Burrows	R	COL	2.2%	50%	4.8	2.7	4.7
6.9	Cristian Javier	R	@BAL	13.7%	47%	4.9	2.7	4.6
6.4	Chris Paddack	R	KC	5.8%	43%	5.3	3.1	4.1
6.0	Jose Soriano	R	CHC	17.5%	40%	5.2	3.0	4.8
6.0	Mitchell Parker	L	@PHI	3.9%	35%	5.1	3.0	4.6
5.9	Jack Leiter	R	CLE	14.0%	49%	4.6	2.7	4.6
5.6	Clay Holmes	R	@ATL	50.3%	42%	4.9	2.9	4.3
5.5	Kyle Freeland	L	@PIT	1.1%	50%	5.1	3.2	4.1
4.9	Thomas Hatch	R	@CWS	0.0%	44%	3.9	2.2	3.5
4.2	Cal Quantrill	R	NYM	0.7%	58%	4.7	3.3	4.0
2.9	Nabil Crismatt	R	CIN	0.2%	37%	4.0	2.8	3.3

Pitchers to stream Saturday

Cristian Javier managed to throw only three innings in his last start as he was under the weather. The Houston Astros monitored him this week and he's been cleared to take the mound in Camden Yards against the Baltimore Orioles. It will be Javier's third start after rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. He's been effective, fanning seven (with only two walks) over eight frames. The Orioles lineup is still dangerous, but they have traded away key cogs Cedric Mullins and Ryan O'Hearn and are missing Adley Rutschman and Tyler O'Neill, both on the IL.
Cade Horton's last start was cut short due to a blister issue, but it's now healed. He'll take the mound for the Chicago Cubs' road date with the Los Angeles Angels. After beginning his career with a 4.80 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP over his initial nine outings, the rookie has since posted a 1.27 ERA and 0.94 WHIP, spanning eight appearances and 42 2/3 innings. Horton has been fortunate, but he's also kept the ball in the yard, masking a low strikeout total. The Angels are a favorable matchup, since they strike out a lot. They also sport a below-average HR rate.
After stringing together three straight quality starts, Jeffrey Springs has sputtered in his last two outings, yielding nine runs in just eight total innings. With the Athletics visiting the Seattle Mariners, the lefty is in a great spot to rebound. Not only is Springs benefiting from a huge park swing with T-Mobile Park (one of the best pitching venues in the league), but the Mariners offense has fanned at a 30.03% clip over the past month with a lefty on the hill, fueling the 10th-lowest wOBA over that stretch.

Pitchers to avoid Saturday

Clay Holmes ended a string of subpar efforts at last Sunday's Little League Classic, but he's still risky when the New York Mets take on the Atlanta Braves at hitter-friendly Truist Park. Even including his last solid outing, Holmes post-break ERA is still a not-so-great 4.88 with a 1.66 WHIP. The Braves lineup will be without Austin Riley (season-ending surgery), but their offense been above average for the past month, spurred by a surging Michael Harris II.

Hitters to stream Saturday

Mitchell Parker's 5.83 ERA is the second worst among qualified starters and it's not a result of bad luck. His 5.12 xFIP is the poorest in the league. The Philadelphia Phillies host the Washington Nationals with the left-hander taking the hill at Citizens Bank Park. With the St. Louis Cardinals and Tampa Bay Rays both getting a rare Saturday off, the Phillies are a great target for those in need of hitters to fill any holes. Bryson Stott, J.T. Realmuto, Alec Bohm and Nick Castellanos are the chief options, with Harrison Bader, Edmundo Sosa and Weston Wilson being deep-league candidates.

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you could win some and you would lose some, but in the end you could expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Because odds typically do not get set until the previous day's games are completed, betting tips will be added in the morning.