Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Monday

ESPN Fantasy

Aug 18, 2025, 07:16 AM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR MONDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
12.9	Logan Gilbert	R	@PHI	97.0%	-115	7.5	50%	5.8	2.3	6.5
12.8	Paul Skenes	R	TOR	99.9%	-115	6.5	47%	5.9	2.1	6.0
11.3	Nestor Cortes	L	SF	15.5%	-145	7.5	60%	5.5	2.2	5.5
10.9	Ranger Suarez	L	SEA	73.7%	-105	7.5	50%	5.8	2.5	5.6
10.8	Robbie Ray	L	@SD	91.3%	+120	7.5	40%	5.6	2.1	5.4
10.8	Freddy Peralta	R	@CHC, Gm. 1	96.5%	+110	8.5	48%	5.5	2.4	6.0
10.5	Kevin Gausman	R	@PIT	90.3%	-105	6.5	53%	5.8	2.6	5.7
10.2	Eury Perez	R	STL	41.0%	-135	7.5	52%	5.0	2.0	5.0
9.9	Jameson Taillon	R	MIL, Gm. 2	17.0%	-120	8.5	56%	5.7	2.5	4.7
9.9	Cade Horton	R	MIL, Gm. 1	30.4%	-130	8.5	52%	5.2	2.0	4.7
9.2	Jack Flaherty	R	HOU	72.7%	-145	8.5	49%	5.5	3.0	6.1
8.3	Gavin Williams	R	@ARI	40.5%	-105	8.5	57%	5.0	2.5	5.2
8.2	Zac Gallen	R	CLE	69.1%	-115	8.5	43%	5.5	2.9	5.4
8.2	Brady Singer	R	@LAA	34.8%	-115	9.5	59%	5.4	2.9	5.0
8.0	Spencer Strider	R	CWS	80.8%	-200	8.5	53%	5.4	3.4	6.0
7.6	Spencer Arrighetti	R	@DET	6.8%	+120	8.5	51%	5.1	2.8	5.4
7.4	Michael Wacha	R	TEX	32.2%	-130	9.5	51%	5.4	3.0	4.5
7.3	Chad Patrick	R	@CHC, Gm. 2	4.4%	EVEN	8.5	44%	5.2	2.8	4.9
7.0	Matthew Liberatore	L	@MIA	18.9%	+115	7.5	48%	4.8	2.4	4.2
6.2	Dustin May	R	BAL	18.0%	-120	8.5	52%	5.2	3.5	5.3
5.7	Trevor Rogers	L	@BOS	68.3%	EVEN	8.5	48%	5.1	3.3	4.8
4.9	Jack Leiter	R	@KC	15.6%	+110	9.5	49%	4.7	3.0	4.2
4.8	Yoendrys Gomez	R	@ATL	0.5%	+165	8.5	47%	4.5	3.0	5.0
4.7	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	R	@COL	99.3%	-290	10.5	63%	5.5	4.9	6.2
1.8	Victor Mederos	R	CIN	0.1%	-105	9.5	41%	3.9	3.0	3.1
-3.5	Kyle Freeland	L	LAD	1.3%	+235	10.5	37%	4.7	6.2	3.9

Pitchers to stream on Monday

Eury Perez returns home after a pair of hiccups on the road, though he fanned eight without issuing a walk last time out. However, the Cleveland Guardians took him deep twice. In fact, Perez has surrendered seven homers this season with five coming in his prior two efforts. Look for a rebound when the Miami Marlins host the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals offense struggled the past month versus right-handers, fueled by an increase in strikeouts over that span.
Gavin Williams posted his first subpar effort in over two months in his last start, yielding four runs in three frames to the pesky Marlins. However, even during the six-game stretch where Williams recorded a 1.63 ERA and .93 WHIP, he walked a generous 17 hitters in 38 2/3 innings. The righty is better control away from taking the next step and becoming a trusted starter. Monday marks a favorable matchup with the Guardians opening a series in the desert with the Arizona Diamondbacks, who sport one of the least patient lineups in the league.
Streaming against the Milwaukee Brewers is risky, but there are a couple of factors aiding the cause for Cade Horton. The Chicago Cubs and Brewers play a separate admission doubleheader with Horton slated to take the hill. There is a good chance that Brewers skipper Pat Murphy empties his bench, perhaps fielding a lesser lineup than usual. More importantly, Horton is on a roll, punching out 14 while issuing just two walks over his previous 11 2/3 innings.

Pitchers to avoid on Monday

Trevor Rogers continues to combine good pitching with good luck. His 17.2% K-BB% would rank an impressive 20th if he pitched enough innings to qualify. However, a fortunate .212 BABIP, 2.8% HR/FB rate and 84.9% left on base mark have been integral to his success. On Monday, Rogers enters a tough neighborhood with a road tilt in Fenway Park against the Boston Red Sox. As well as the left has pitched, trusting him is a risky way to start the fantasy period.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Monday

Doubleheaders are always a prime place to look for extra production. A lot of times, the managers want to get everyone involved, limiting the number of players appearing twice, but the importance of the series between the Cubs and Brewers may keep a few batters active in both ends. Dansby Swanson is the best candidate for the Cubs, with Michael Busch and Matt Shaw in the mix. Brice Turang and Andrew Vaughn are near locks to play twice for the Brewers, with Sal Frelick and Joey Ortiz other possibilities.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top HR prop bets

Elias Diaz | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 10% chance of this bet hitting, with a $0.30 EV
One reason to bet this: Diaz has been unlucky this year, notching a .255 wOBA despite my projections estimating his true talent level to be .284 -- a .029 discrepancy.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Yoendrys Gomez | UNDER 4.5 K (-155)
Projection: 72% chance of this bet hitting, with a $28.52 EV
One reason to bet this: Via my projections, the team with the fifth-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Atlanta Braves with a 20.7 underlying K%.

Trevor Rogers | UNDER 5.5 K (-160)
Projection: 73% chance of this bet hitting, with a $28.55 EV
One reason to bet this: Fenway Park grades out as the No. 29 venue in baseball for strikeouts, per my projections.

Paul Skenes | UNDER 6.5 K (-155)
Projection: 69% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.78 EV
One reason to bet this: Skenes' fastball spin rate of 2,237 rpm grades out in the 22nd percentile this year among all SP.

Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets

Dodgers @ Rockies | YRFI (-130)
Projection: 62% chance of RUN with a $11.96 EV

Guardians @ D-Backs | NRFI (-100)
Projection: 52% chance of NO RUN with a $3.82 EV

Cardinals @ Marlins | NRFI (-115)
Projection: 55% chance of NO RUN with a $2.91 EV