Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Friday

ESPN Fantasy

Aug 14, 2025, 04:00 PM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR FRIDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	ER	K
14.9	Zack Wheeler	R	@WSH	99.9%	72%	6.3	2.4	6.9
13.9	Framber Valdez	L	BAL	98.9%	69%	6.1	2.2	6.3
13.0	Luis Castillo	R	@NYM	95.6%	56%	6.1	2.2	5.8
12.4	Sean Manaea	L	SEA	36.0%	44%	5.5	1.8	5.8
11.6	Jacob deGrom	R	@TOR	98.0%	50%	5.6	2.2	5.5
11.4	Michael King	R	@LAD	88.6%	64%	5.3	2.1	6.0
10.9	Yusei Kikuchi	L	@ATH	69.7%	57%	5.7	2.7	6.3
10.3	Luis Gil	R	@STL	32.1%	57%	5.4	2.2	5.5
10.0	Chris Bassitt	R	TEX	65.3%	50%	5.9	2.8	5.4
8.9	Colin Rea	R	PIT	10.0%	63%	5.3	2.6	4.7
8.7	Landen Roupp	R	TB	10.1%	49%	5.3	2.3	4.6
8.5	Erick Fedde	R	@CLE	4.9%	56%	5.4	2.8	5.0
8.5	Noah Cameron	L	CWS	46.0%	51%	5.6	3.0	4.9
8.1	Nick Martinez	R	MIL	25.5%	53%	5.2	2.8	4.7
8.0	Charlie Morton	R	@MIN	8.4%	56%	5.4	3.1	5.5
7.6	Andre Pallante	R	NYY	3.7%	43%	5.2	2.5	4.3
7.2	MacKenzie Gore	L	PHI	72.9%	28%	5.3	3.1	5.8
7.0	Joe Boyle	R	@SF	4.4%	51%	4.6	2.3	4.9
6.6	Clayton Kershaw	L	SD	25.3%	36%	4.6	2.1	3.7
6.6	Jack Perkins	R	LAA	1.4%	43%	4.5	2.4	4.5
6.3	Aaron Civale	R	@KC	4.1%	49%	5.0	3.0	4.4
6.1	Brandon Young	R	@HOU	0.2%	31%	4.7	2.7	4.6
5.4	Lucas Giolito	R	MIA	33.5%	54%	5.3	3.8	5.0
4.5	Jacob Misiorowski	R	@CIN	82.0%	47%	2.7	1.4	3.4
4.4	Joey Cantillo	L	ATL	2.4%	44%	4.3	3.0	5.1
4.3	Jose Urena	R	DET	0.2%	44%	4.5	2.8	3.6
3.8	Braxton Ashcraft	R	@CHC	0.2%	37%	3.0	1.7	2.9
3.8	Sandy Alcantara	R	@BOS	37.4%	46%	5.2	3.9	4.4
2.3	Brandon Pfaadt	R	@COL	61.2%	61%	5.2	5.5	5.5
-7.2	Tanner Gordon	R	ARI	0.2%	39%	4.1	7.0	3.6

Pitchers to stream on Friday

Splits facing left-handed pitching are precarious, especially in a sample of just over a week. For the season, the Seattle Mariners sport an average lineup facing left-handers, but since the trade deadline, they have one of the worst offenses against southpaws, even after acquiring Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor. This is one of the reasons that Sean Manaea lands so high on Friday's starting pitcher rankings. The New York Mets lefty stumbled in his past two starts, but since debuting in mid-July, Manaea recorded 30 strikeouts with only six walks over 27 frames. His 3.37 xFIP indicates that there is some small sample noise in his 4.33 ERA.
Luis Gil's second start of the season was much better than his debut. The righty didn't take a major league hill until August 3 after rehabbing a lat issue. He walked four while fanning just three in 3 2/3 frames. Last time, Gil notched seven strikeouts and issued just one free pass in 5 1/3 stanzas. He lines up for another strong effort when the New York Yankees visit the St. Louis Cardinals. The hosts are in an offensive rut, driven by a big jump in strikeouts over the past several weeks.
One of the keys to fantasy management is the ability to overcome bias, especially first impressions. After six starts, Noah Cameron recorded a 2.56 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. Analysts pointed out his 4.40 xFIP and warned of impending regression. After six more starts, Cameron boasts a 2.52 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Before assuming he's still enjoying good fortune, his xFIP over his last half-dozen starts is 3.66. Yes, he's still tag-teaming with Lady Luck, but Cameron's skills have improved as he's striking out a higher percentage of batters while walking fewer. The Kansas City Royals rookie has a favorable matchup with the Chicago White Sox, registering the seventh highest strikeout rate in MLB with a lefty on the hill.

Pitchers to avoid on Friday

The Milwaukee Brewers have not announced whether Jacob Misiorowski will start Friday's tilt with the Cincinnati Reds or make another rehab start while recovering from a bruised tibia. If he is given the ball in the Great American Ballpark, the rookie is expected to be under a pitch limit, likely precluding him from qualifying for a win, since he probably won't hurl the requisite five frames.

Hitters to stream on Friday

Jose Urena has thrown pitches for four major league teams this season despite fanning only 14 while walking 10 in 25 1/3 innings. The Minnesota Twins are Urena's latest employer, and they're sending him to the hill for a third time. The Detroit Tigers await and should be able to score some runs on the road at Target Field. Colt Keith, Kerry Carpenter, Spencer Torkelson, Wenceel Perez and Zach McKinstry all benefit from a vulnerable starter and one of the weaker bullpens in the league.

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Because odds typically do not get set until the previous day's games are completed, betting tips will be added in the morning.