Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Wednesday

ESPN Fantasy

Aug 13, 2025, 07:01 AM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR WEDNESDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
13.4	David Peterson	L	ATL	59.7%	-200	9.5	48%	6.1	1.9	6.0
12.9	Logan Gilbert	R	@BAL	96.9%	-150	8.5	64%	5.9	2.5	6.2
12.4	Joe Ryan	R	@NYY	98.2%	+115	8.5	53%	5.6	2.3	6.1
12.0	Nick Pivetta	R	@SF	94.0%	-160	7.5	72%	5.5	2.2	5.6
11.8	Brandon Woodruff	R	PIT	80.8%	-215	7.5	63%	5.5	2.2	5.7
11.7	Cristopher Sanchez	L	@CIN	95.6%	-135	8.5	59%	6.0	2.6	5.9
11.5	Hunter Brown	R	BOS	99.0%	-175	7.5	54%	5.5	2.2	6.2
11.3	Hunter Greene	R	PHI	92.6%	+115	8.5	41%	5.6	2.6	6.6
10.6	Kevin Gausman	R	CHC	89.1%	-130	8.5	51%	5.8	2.6	5.7
9.5	Cade Horton	R	@TOR	20.1%	+110	8.5	49%	5.3	2.2	4.5
9.5	Michael McGreevy	R	COL	6.8%	-210	8.5	59%	6.0	2.7	4.2
9.2	Troy Melton	R	@CWS	0.7%	-130	8.5	50%	5.7	3.0	5.7
9.0	Shane Smith	R	DET	5.9%	+110	8.5	50%	4.9	2.2	5.2
8.9	Merrill Kelly	R	ARI	79.4%	-150	8.5	59%	5.6	3.0	5.3
8.8	Eury Perez	R	@CLE	41.4%	+115	7.5	45%	4.9	2.2	4.9
8.6	Seth Lugo	R	WSH	76.5%	-180	8.5	58%	5.9	3.3	5.1
8.0	Gavin Williams	R	MIA	46.2%	-135	7.5	55%	5.1	2.6	5.2
7.6	Mitch Keller	R	@MIL	55.5%	+180	7.5	37%	5.6	3.0	5.0
7.6	Zac Gallen	R	@TEX	70.6%	+125	8.5	41%	5.5	3.3	5.5
7.6	Carlos Carrasco	R	@NYM	0.4%	+165	9.5	52%	5.0	2.5	4.3
7.2	Drew Rasmussen	R	@ATH	61.9%	-130	9.5	60%	4.1	1.9	4.0
7.2	Cam Schlittler	R	MIN	5.4%	-135	8.5	47%	5.2	3.0	5.0
7.2	Walker Buehler	R	@HOU	14.0%	+145	7.5	46%	5.2	2.7	4.3
7.1	Austin Gomber	L	@STL	0.3%	+175	8.5	41%	5.5	2.9	4.0
6.8	Trevor Rogers	L	SEA	64.8%	+125	8.5	36%	5.3	2.9	4.7
5.7	Jake Irvin	R	@KC	11.0%	+150	8.5	42%	5.5	3.4	4.1
5.4	J.T. Ginn	R	TB	1.6%	+110	9.5	40%	4.7	2.8	4.1
4.1	Kyle Hendricks	R	LAD	2.0%	+165	9.5	47%	4.9	3.3	3.6
2.8	Kai-Wei Teng	R	SD	0.7%	+135	7.5	28%	3.9	2.7	3.8
2.7	Shohei Ohtani	R	@LAA	99.9%	-200	9.5	53%	2.3	1.5	2.3

Pitchers to stream on Wednesday

Before his last outing, Eury Perez was one of the most effective pitchers in the league, sporting a 1.06 ERA and 0.68 WHIP with 37 strikeouts to just eight walks over the prior 34 innings. Last time out, the Atlanta Braves took Perez deep three times. The 22-year-old right-hander is in a great spot to rebound with the Miami Marlins visiting the Cleveland Guardians. The home team doesn't fan much, but they're a below average offense with below average power.
The instances where two of the top streamers face each other seem rare this season. However, the Guardians will counter Perez with Gavin Williams. The club extended Williams extra rest after he fell one out short of a complete game no-hitter. Williams's 126th pitch was a home run courtesy of Juan Soto, ending his outing after 8 2/3 frames. He still may be on a pitch count even with six days of rest, but Williams lines up well against the Marlins, though the visitors have hit right-handers better over the second half of the season.
Michael McGreevy isn't racking up strikeouts but he's limiting free passes and keeping the ball in the yard. The St. Louis Cardinals rookie has a chance to pad his punchouts with a home date against the Colorado Rockies, which sport the highest strikeout rate in MLB facing righties.

Pitchers to avoid on Wednesday

The Cincinnati Reds are in the thick of the playoff race even though they've been without their ace for over two months. That changes on Wednesday with Hunter Greene ticketed to return from the IL in a late afternoon home affair with the Philadelphia Phillies. Against a lesser opponent, using Greene out of the gate is defensible, but the Phillies possess one of the most potent lineups in the league, and have been on a power surge over the last month. Greene punched out 24 in just 13 frames while rehabbing, but despite logging 5 1/3 innings (79 pitches) in his final rehab effort, Greene is too risky.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Wednesday

After shining in his debut with the Atlanta Braves, Carlos Carrasco's follow-up effort was a struggle as he yielded six runs in 5 2/3 innings to the Marlins. Carrasco is slated for another NL East matchup against the New York Mets in Citi Field. Brandon Nimmo, Cedric Mullins, Mark Vientos, Francisco Alvarez, Jeff McNeil and Brett Baty are all candidates for productive evenings

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top HR prop bets

Will Smith | OVER 0.5 HR (+425)
Projection: 19% chance of this bet hitting, with a $0.75 EV
One reason to bet this: Angel Stadium has the lowest average fence height among all MLB stadiums.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Brandon Woodruff | UNDER 7.5 K (-150)
Projection: 68% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.15 EV
One reason to bet this: Woodruff has averaged 81.5 adjusted pitches per outing this year, ranking in the 21st percentile.

Seth Lugo | OVER 4.5 K (-160)
Projection: 64% chance of this bet hitting, with a $6.53 EV
One reason to bet this: Lugo has averaged 95.1 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, checking in at the 94th percentile.

Zac Gallen | UNDER 5.5 K (-150)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $0.38 EV
One reason to bet this: Gallen's 92.8-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1-mph fall off from last years 93.8-mph mark.

Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets

Rockies @ Cardinals | NRFI (-100)
Projection: 54% chance of NO RUN with a $7.32 EV

Rays @ Athletics | NRFI (-100)
Projection: 53% chance of NO RUN with a $6.12 EV

Dodgers @ Angels | NRFI (+105)
Projection: 50% chance of NO RUN with a $3.09 EV