Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.
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Pitchers to stream on Monday
Jeffrey Springs will face his old team for the second time, this time in Sacramento when the Athletics host the Tampa Bay Rays. After opening the season with a 6.04 ERA and 1.62 WHIP over his first six outings, the lefty posted a 3.30 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over his past 18 efforts, though 107 strikeouts in 132 innings are a bit light. Even so, Springs is in a good spot facing a Rays lineup with the eighth lowest wOBA and the ninth highest strikeout rate against southpaws.
Ryne Nelson's ERA is a run lower than last season's mark, though the associated estimators are nearly identical. Last season's 4.24 ERA was unlucky while this season's 3.20 level has benefited from a fortunate .237 BABIP and a slightly high 74% left on base mark. His 3.98 xFIP and 3.97 SIERA indicate that Nelson's skills are better than league average. He'll put them on display in Arlington when the Arizona Diamondbacks visit the Texas Rangers, and the fourth poorest wOBA against right-handers.
It's odd seeing Yu Darvish available in close to 85% of ESPN leagues, but injuries and inconsistency when on the hill has tempered the 38-year-old's rostership. That said, Darvish is one start removed from hurling seven scoreless frames against the New York Mets, so there is gas left in the tank. With the San Diego Padres in the thick of the playoff chase, Darvish is a candidate to step up down the stretch. He enjoys a favorable road date with the San Francisco Giants. Since the break, the Giants are 7-13, though they're still in the hunt for the third NL Wild Card.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Texas Rangers pitchers vs. Diamondbacks hitters
Offense: C | Park: A | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: B- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.86 ERA in this matchup.
New York Yankees pitchers vs. Twins hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.93 ERA in this matchup.
Milwaukee Brewers pitchers vs. Pirates hitters
Offense: C | Park: A | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.96 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Minnesota Twins pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
Offense: F | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.44 ERA in this matchup.
Cincinnati Reds pitchers vs. Phillies hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.42 ERA in this matchup.
Tampa Bay Rays pitchers vs. Athletics hitters
Offense: D | Park: D | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D- | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.26 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to avoid on Monday
It was tempting to include Cade Cavalli with the streaming pitchers, but there is too much risk so early in the week. He made his 2025 debut last week, logging 4 1/3 innings against the Athletics, punching out six with just one walk. Cavalli's second start is against the Kansas City Royals, who sport one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league. Since the righty likely isn't going to pile up innings, or strikeouts, his fantasy appeal is limited. However, the allure of Royals batters is also tempered, so it's best to fill vacant lineup spots with batters from other teams.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Cincinnati Reds batters vs. Phillies pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: C | Park: A | Framing: C | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .359 wOBA in this matchup.
Tampa Bay Rays batters vs. Athletics pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: A+ | Park: B | Framing: B | Temperature: A | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .343 wOBA in this matchup.
St. Louis Cardinals RHB vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: A+ | Bullpen: B | Park: D | Framing: C | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .341 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Houston Astros LHB vs. Red Sox pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: D | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .273 wOBA in this matchup.
San Diego Padres RHB vs. Giants pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Framing: C | Temperature: D | Wind: A+ | Away
The average hitter would post a .276 wOBA in this matchup.
Arizona Diamondbacks RHB vs. Rangers pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .276 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Oneil Cruz | OVER 0.5 HR (+475)
Projection: 19% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.06 EV
One reason to bet this: This game is projected to have the least suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.
Henry Davis | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 11% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.00 EV
One reason to bet this: This game is projected to have the least suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.
Harrison Bader | OVER 0.5 HR (+525)
Projection: 17% chance of this bet hitting, with a $4.81 EV
One reason to bet this: High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks). The weather report predicts the second-highest temperatures on the slate today at 88 degrees.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Cristian Javier | OVER 4.5 K (+110)
Projection: 56% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.04 EV
One reason to bet this: Minute Maid Park ranks as the No. 3 stadium in the league for strikeouts, per my projections.
Zebby Matthews | UNDER 5.5 K (-130)
Projection: 66% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.35 EV
One reason to bet this: With seven hitters who hit from the other side in the opposing teams projected batting order, Matthews encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.
Cade Cavalli | UNDER 3.5 K (+105)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.61 EV
One reason to bet this: This game is expected to have the second-most humid conditions of all games on the slate today (79%). There is a small, but significant connection with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Phillies @ Reds | YRFI (-125)
Projection: 57% chance of RUN with a $3.32 EV
Pirates @ Brewers | YRFI (-105)
Projection: 51% chance of RUN with a $0.31 EV