Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Friday

ESPN Fantasy

Aug 7, 2025, 03:32 PM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR FRIDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	ER	K
14.6	Tarik Skubal	L	LAA	99.9%	63%	6.0	2.2	6.9
13.4	Nick Pivetta	R	BOS	94.0%	66%	5.6	1.9	6.1
12.4	Matthew Boyd	L	@STL	87.2%	64%	5.7	1.9	5.3
12.1	Cristopher Sanchez	L	@TEX	95.1%	54%	6.0	2.5	5.9
11.9	Luis Castillo	R	TB	95.4%	54%	6.1	2.5	5.6
11.4	Tanner Bibee	R	@CWS	72.3%	54%	5.8	2.5	5.8
11.3	Joe Ryan	R	KC	98.0%	46%	5.6	2.4	5.9
11.2	Hunter Brown	R	@NYY	99.0%	54%	5.4	2.3	6.3
11.1	Brandon Woodruff	R	NYM	78.0%	52%	5.4	2.2	5.5
10.5	Max Scherzer	R	@LAD	22.4%	51%	5.1	2.2	5.4
10.1	Seth Lugo	R	@MIN	81.1%	54%	5.9	2.8	5.4
9.6	Zac Gallen	R	COL	69.3%	55%	5.7	2.9	5.9
9.3	Aaron Civale	R	CLE	6.4%	46%	5.2	2.3	5.2
9.2	Merrill Kelly	R	PHI	80.9%	46%	5.6	2.9	5.4
9.2	Mitch Keller	R	CIN	57.9%	53%	5.8	2.9	5.1
8.8	Kodai Senga	R	@MIL	84.9%	48%	5.2	2.5	5.3
8.8	Jake Irvin	R	@SF	11.4%	55%	5.6	2.7	4.6
8.3	Edward Cabrera	R	@ATL	32.8%	59%	5.0	2.6	5.2
7.7	Drew Rasmussen	R	@SEA	54.5%	46%	4.0	1.6	4.1
7.4	Cam Schlittler	R	HOU	4.9%	46%	5.2	2.8	4.9
7.4	Clayton Kershaw	L	TOR	24.2%	49%	4.7	2.1	3.8
7.3	Michael McGreevy	R	CHC	2.2%	36%	5.8	3.0	4.1
6.9	Chase Burns	R	@PIT	29.7%	47%	4.4	2.3	4.7
6.2	Tomoyuki Sugano	R	ATH	8.5%	50%	5.4	3.4	4.4
5.9	Austin Gomber	L	@ARI	0.3%	45%	5.4	3.3	4.0
5.9	Kyle Hendricks	R	@DET	2.3%	37%	5.1	2.9	3.9
5.9	Walker Buehler	R	@SD	13.5%	34%	5.1	2.8	3.9
5.0	J.T. Ginn	R	@BAL	1.3%	50%	4.7	3.0	4.0
4.2	Bryce Elder	R	MIA	1.8%	41%	5.2	3.7	4.4
3.7	Kai-Wei Teng	R	WSH	0.3%	45%	3.9	2.6	4.1

Pitchers to stream on Friday

Every five or six days, Edward Cabrera's stats since his slow start are cited, and they keep getting better. Since May 20, only five pitchers logging at least 60 frames have a lower ERA than Cabrera's 2.06 mark during that span. His 3.36 xFIP is 18th best over that same stretch, so while he's been a little lucky, Cabrera has been a top-20 starting pitcher for well over two months. Next up is a road date with the Atlanta Braves and a below-average lineup missing Ronald Acuna Jr. and Austin Riley.
Chase Burns' last outing was at the 2025 MLB Speedway Classic, but he was limited to one inning after the game was suspended. He was off to a strong start with two punchouts. Despite the abbreviated appearance, The Cincinnati Reds gave Burns regular rest before Friday night's road affair with the Pittsburgh Pirates. The well-rested rookie faces the lineup averaging the fewest runs per game in MLB.
For the season, the Los Angeles Dodgers are averaging the second-most runs per game. However, avoiding opposing pitchers for the past month meant not facing the team averaging the seventh-fewest runs per game in the league over that stretch. The defending World Series champions can snap out of their rut at any time, so there is risk. That said, veteran Max Scherzer is finding his groove with two straight quality starts, featuring 15 strikeouts with no walks over 13 frames. On Friday's pitching rankings, Scherzer checks in as the top-ranked streamer when the Toronto Blue Jays visit the Dodgers.

Pitchers to avoid on Friday

Kodai Senga has sputtered since the break, posting a bloated 8.25 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in three starts, covering only 12 frames. He fanned a respectable 12 hitters but issued 11 walks while yielding four homers. A road matchup with the Milwaukee Brewers is not the ideal opportunity to get back on track. The Brewers are averaging the second-most runs per game in the league since the clubs returned to action following the Midseason Classic.

Hitters to stream on Friday

Despite struggling in his 2025 debut last week, Kai-Wei Teng is slated to take the hill when the San Francisco Giants entertain the Washington Nationals. Additionally, the Giants depleted bullpen has pitched poorly since the trade deadline, setting up Nationals bats for a productive evening. Luis Garcia Jr., Josh Bell, Nathaniel Lowe, Brady House and Robert Hassell III are all in play as streaming hitters.

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Because odds typically do not get set until the previous day's games are completed, betting tips will be added in the morning.