Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Thursday

ESPN Fantasy

Aug 7, 2025, 10:18 AM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR THURSDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
14.5	Logan Gilbert	R	CWS	97.0%	-285	7.5	60%	5.9	2.0	6.6
13.7	Paul Skenes	R	CIN	99.9%	-175	7.5	55%	5.8	2.0	6.4
9.6	Brady Singer	R	@PIT	41.3%	+145	7.5	45%	5.6	2.6	5.2
9.5	Eury Perez	R	@ATL	50.7%	-115	8.5	62%	4.9	2.2	5.1
9.4	Jacob Lopez	L	@WSH	8.9%	-145	9.5	58%	5.0	2.3	5.4
8.2	Shane Smith	R	@SEA	6.1%	+230	7.5	40%	4.7	2.1	4.9
6.4	Mitchell Parker	L	ATH	5.1%	+120	9.5	42%	5.2	3.1	4.6
3.8	Carlos Carrasco	R	MIA	1.1%	-105	8.5	38%	4.7	3.4	4.1

Pitchers to stream on Thursday

Even though there are only four games on the schedule, there are plenty of appealing pitchers to stream, beginning with Eury Perez when the Miami Marlins visit the Atlanta Braves. After posting a 6.19 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over his first four starts, Perez is one of the top pitchers in baseball over his last 34 innings with a 1.06 ERA and 0.68 WHIP, fully supported by 37 strikeouts and only eight walks. Meanwhile, the Braves offense has struggled over the last month (ninth lowest wOBA versus right-handed pitching) and remains without Ronald Acuna Jr.
The perception is that strikeouts drive up pitch counts, but walks are more detrimental. Jacob Lopez is an example of a pitcher racking up strikeouts but also issuing too many walks. As such, despite tossing at least 87 pitches in each of his last five outings, Lopez hasn't managed to last more than five frames. Even so, well over a strikeout an inning gives Lopez fantasy appeal and on Thursday, The Athletics southpaw faces the Washington Nationals and the lineup with the fifth highest strikeout rate facing left-handers over the past month.
Brady Singer stumbled out of the break, yielding seven runs to the Washington Nationals over just 2 1/3 innings. However, he righted the ship in his last two outings, picking up a pair of wins for the Cincinnati Reds by recording a pair of quality starts with 18 strikeouts and just two base on balls in 13 1/3 stanzas. Singer enjoys a favorable matchup with a road date against a Pittsburgh Pirates offense sporting the second worst wOBA with a righty on the hill.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Thursday

Not many expected that the Marlins would be averaging more runs per game than the Braves when they met in early August. It's not by much, but the Marlins have been slightly more productive. They have a good chance to extend the difference when they face Carlos Carrasco in Truist Park. The veteran right-hander registered a quality start in his Braves debut, but he only fanned five while walking a pair and surrendering seven hits over six frames. Kyle Stowers is the only Marlins batter rostered in over 75% of ESPN leagues. Javier Sanoja, Jakob Marsee, Agustin Ramirez, Xavier Edwards, Eric Wagaman and Otto Lopez are all options to fortify a fantasy lineup full of open spots with only four games on the docket.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top HR prop bets

Oneil Cruz | OVER 0.5 HR (+475)
Projection: 18% chance of this bet hitting, with a $4.71 EV
One reason to bet this: High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks). The weather report calls for the second-hottest weather (82 degrees) on the slate today.

Jakob Marsee | OVER 0.5 HR (+1000)
Projection: 9% chance of this bet hitting, with a $1.97 EV
One reason to bet this: Truist Park has the shallowest centerfield dimensions among all MLB stadiums.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Mitchell Parker | OVER 4.5 K (+110)
Projection: 52% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.49 EV
One reason to bet this: Considering the 1.09 deviation between Parker's 5.89 K/9 and his 6.98 estimated true talent K/9 (via my projections), it's safe to say he's been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball this year.

Eury Perez | UNDER 5.5 K (-125)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.66 EV
One reason to bet this: According to my projections, the team with the second-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Braves, with a 21.7 underlying K%.

Brady Singer | UNDER 5.5 K (-135)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $3.53 EV
One reason to bet this: Out of all starting pitchers, Singer's fastball velocity of 91.6 mph grades out in the 21st percentile this year.

Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets

White Sox @ Mariners | NRFI (-135)
Projection: 58% chance of NO RUN with a $1.35 EV

Athletics @ Nationals | NRFI (-115)
Projection: 54% chance of NO RUN with a $0.73 EV