Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Wednesday

Todd ZolaAug 5, 2025, 05:00 PM ET
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Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR WEDNESDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	ER	K
15.4	David Peterson	L	CLE	59.3%	60%	6.1	1.7	6.6
12.6	George Kirby	R	CWS	83.2%	63%	5.8	2.1	5.6
12.3	Ranger Suarez	L	BAL	84.4%	61%	5.9	2.4	5.9
11.6	Joe Ryan	R	@DET	98.1%	50%	5.7	2.5	6.1
11.5	Carlos Rodon	L	@TEX	96.3%	58%	5.7	2.7	6.4
10.5	Gavin Williams	R	@NYM	27.9%	40%	5.2	1.9	5.6
10.4	Robbie Ray	L	@PIT	91.7%	55%	5.5	2.4	5.8
9.5	Jack Flaherty	R	MIN	77.4%	50%	5.4	2.8	6.0
9.4	Cade Horton	R	CIN	11.0%	51%	5.3	2.3	4.9
9.3	Spencer Strider	R	MIL	88.8%	48%	5.4	2.8	6.2
9.3	Nestor Cortes	L	@ARI	14.0%	71%	5.5	2.9	5.3
9.1	Jeffrey Springs	L	@WSH	16.7%	59%	5.3	2.7	5.1
9.1	Andrew Abbott	L	@CHC	80.8%	49%	5.5	2.5	4.8
8.8	Spencer Arrighetti	R	@MIA	8.6%	47%	5.2	2.5	5.6
7.7	Janson Junk	R	HOU	6.1%	53%	5.2	2.4	3.8
7.7	Jonathan Cannon	R	@SEA	0.7%	37%	5.4	2.8	4.6
7.7	Trevor Rogers	L	@PHI	56.9%	39%	5.2	2.7	5.1
7.3	Shane Baz	R	@LAA	35.3%	56%	5.4	3.2	5.0
7.2	Michael Wacha	R	@BOS	21.6%	55%	5.3	3.2	4.9
6.8	Jose Quintana	L	@ATL	11.2%	52%	5.4	3.2	4.5
6.7	Matthew Liberatore	L	@LAD	20.9%	42%	4.8	2.5	4.3
6.5	Andrew Heaney	L	SF	9.9%	45%	4.9	2.8	4.4
5.9	Jack Leiter	R	NYY	16.9%	42%	4.7	2.9	5.0
5.6	Tyler Anderson	L	TB	6.3%	44%	5.4	3.5	4.4
5.4	Dustin May	R	KC	16.5%	45%	5.2	3.6	4.8
4.7	Cade Cavalli	R	ATH	0.2%	41%	4.8	3.3	4.8
4.0	Shohei Ohtani	R	STL	99.8%	58%	2.5	1.2	2.5
3.9	Kevin Gausman	R	@COL	87.9%	64%	5.5	5.2	5.9
3.6	Anthony DeSclafani	R	SD	0.2%	29%	3.7	2.3	3.3
-2.6	Kyle Freeland	L	TOR	1.0%	36%	4.8	6.0	3.9

Pitchers to stream on Wednesday

Since the break, Gavin Williams has a 1.42 ERA and 0.95 WHIP with 22 strikeouts and just five walks in 19 innings. The Cleveland Guardians wrap up a series in Citi Field against the New York Mets. The Mets are an average offense with a right-hander on the hill, but for the past month they're posted the third lowest wOBA in the league facing righties.
Shane Baz entered the break with four consecutive quality starts. However, he's sputtered in three efforts since the break, recording an unsightly 9.64 ERA and 1.93 WHIP over his last 14 stanzas. That said, he fanned 17 with just six walks over that stretch as he's been victimized by a .419 BABIP and 52.6% left on base mark. Bas is in a favorable position to get back on track with the Tampa Bay Rays visiting the Los Angeles Angels, facing a below average lineup with the second highest strikeout rate in MLB versus right-handers.
Jeffrey Springs registered two straight quality starts, fanning 12 with just two free passes in those dozen frames. Expecting a third is aggressive, but the lefty has a favorable matchup with the Athletics on the road against the Washington Nationals. The home team has struggled all season versus southpaws, but for the last month they've been especially weak, checking in with the sixth highest strikeout rate and fifth lowest wOBA against left-handers over the past 30 days.

Pitchers to avoid on Wednesday

Each spring, a popular topic is bold predictions. Only a soothsayer would have called out Trevor Rogers as earning the trust of fantasy managers by being rostered in more than half of ESPN leagues over four months into the season. Rogers' solid 3.67 xFIP and 3.78 SIERA demonstrate that his 1.44 ERA isn't all smoke and mirrors, but he's due for a correction. A .185 BABIP and 84.6% left on base mark aren't sustainable. Regression is agnostic to the opponent, so avoiding Rogers on Wednesday isn't about running out of luck; it's because he fans only 22.9% of batters and the Philadelphia Phillies are a dangerous lineup, especially at home.

Hitters to stream on Wednesday

The fortified San Diego Padres offense lines up for a productive Wednesday evening in the desert. The Arizona Diamondbacks elevated Anthony DeSclafani to the rotation to replace Merrill Kelly (traded to the Texas Rangers). DeSclafani isn't fully stretched out, and the Diamondbacks bullpen is decimated. Ramon Laureano, Luis Arraez, Jake Cronenworth, Gavin Sheets and Ryan O'Hearn are in play as streamers.

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end, you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Because odds typically do not get set until the previous day's games are completed, betting tips will be added in the morning.