Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Saturday

Todd ZolaJul 25, 2025, 03:16 PM ET
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Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR SATURDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	ER	K
13.7	Tarik Skubal	L	TOR	99.9%	55%	5.9	2.0	6.3
12.2	David Peterson	L	@SF	54.1%	55%	5.9	2.1	5.6
11.7	Joe Ryan	R	WSH	98.1%	64%	5.6	2.5	6.1
11.4	Hunter Brown	R	ATH	99.0%	61%	5.5	2.3	6.1
11.2	Ranger Suarez	L	@NYY	83.8%	57%	5.8	2.4	5.6
11.0	Merrill Kelly	R	@PIT	78.7%	54%	5.7	2.5	5.8
10.1	Robbie Ray	L	NYM	92.4%	45%	5.5	2.3	5.3
9.9	Garrett Crochet	L	LAD	99.8%	56%	5.6	3.2	6.9
9.8	George Kirby	R	@LAA	81.5%	62%	5.6	2.8	5.1
9.5	Cade Horton	R	@CWS	5.9%	54%	5.4	2.4	5.0
9.3	Kevin Gausman	R	@DET	85.5%	45%	5.7	2.9	5.6
9.3	Ryan Pepiot	R	@CIN	56.4%	48%	5.2	2.7	5.7
9.0	Jose Quintana	L	MIA	11.2%	54%	5.7	2.8	4.6
8.7	Kris Bubic	L	CLE	93.9%	49%	5.6	2.8	5.1
8.5	Andrew Abbott	L	TB	80.7%	52%	5.4	2.9	5.2
8.5	Tanner Bibee	R	@KC	73.3%	51%	5.6	3.0	5.0
8.4	Jacob Lopez	L	@HOU	5.8%	39%	5.0	2.5	5.5
7.6	Aaron Civale	R	CHC	2.0%	46%	5.1	2.6	4.6
7.5	Grant Holmes	R	@TEX	36.2%	48%	5.2	3.1	5.5
7.3	Matthew Liberatore	L	SD	25.2%	60%	5.1	2.5	4.1
7.3	Trevor Rogers	L	COL	40.4%	62%	5.2	2.9	4.7
6.8	Kumar Rocker	R	ATL	4.3%	52%	4.7	2.7	4.5
6.8	Randy Vasquez	R	@STL	2.1%	40%	5.1	2.4	3.3
6.3	Marcus Stroman	R	PHI	2.8%	43%	5.0	2.7	4.1
6.3	Mitchell Parker	L	@MIN	4.8%	36%	5.2	2.9	4.4
6.0	Janson Junk	R	@MIL	8.8%	46%	4.9	2.7	3.6
5.6	Andrew Heaney	L	ARI	10.9%	46%	5.0	3.1	4.2
4.7	Clayton Kershaw	L	@BOS	30.5%	44%	4.4	2.9	4.0
4.6	Tyler Anderson	L	SEA	6.7%	38%	5.2	3.6	4.5
1.9	Antonio Senzatela	R	@BAL	0.2%	38%	5.0	4.1	3.7

Pitchers to stream on Saturday

When the Baltimore Orioles traded Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers to the Marlins for Trevor Rogers, they envisioned the southpaw adding depth to a playoff rotation. Rogers has done his part, but injuries and a disappointing offense have the club looking to next season. With so many teams in the market for pitching, Rogers could be in demand as he's done his part with a 1.74 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in seven outings, albeit with a pedestrian 35 strikeouts in 41 1/3 innings. With the Orioles hosting the Colorado Rockies, Rogers is in a great spot to pad his strikeouts while increasing his trade appeal as he faces the lineup with the third-highest road strikeout rate against left-handers.
Cade Horton went into the break in a rut but emerged with a solid home effort against the Boston Red Sox. Next up is a road date with the Chicago White Sox and the offense with the lowest wOBA with a right-hander on the hill.
The Milwaukee Brewers are one of the few teams with solid starting pitch depth with Chad Patrick and Logan Henderson biding time with Triple-A Louisville while former starters Aaron Ashby, DL Hall and Tobias Myers are working out of the bullpen. Many keep expecting Jose Quintana to pitch himself out of a job, but the veteran has pitched just well enough to secure his spot in the rotation. That said, he struggled in his last effort, yielding four runs to the Los Angeles Dodgers, albeit with five punchouts and no walks. The lefty is in a favorable spot to rebound with a home affair against the Miami Marlins, sporting the fifth lowest wOBA with a left-hander on the hill.

Pitchers to avoid on Saturday

Ranger Suarez is probably just experiencing a hiccup on an otherwise solid season, but he has struggled with control over his last two efforts. In his first start after the break, Suarez issued four free passes against the Los Angeles Angels, the lineup with the second lowest walk rate facing left-handers. On Saturday, Suarez squares off with a New York Yankees team that coaxes walks at the league's highest rate, buoying the second-highest wOBA against southpaw pitching. The safe play is stashing Suarez on reserve when the Philadelphia Phillies visit the Bronx.

Hitters to stream on Saturday

Antonio Senzatela has been equally poor at Coors Field and on the road. The Colorado Rockies continue a series in Camden Yards, putting the spotlight on several of the Baltimore Orioles lefty swinging contingent, including Jackson Holliday, Ryan O'Hearn and Colton Cowser. Right-handers also give Senzatela trouble, also putting Jordan Westburg, Ramon Laureano and Tyler O'Neill in play.

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Because odds typically do not get set until the previous day's games are completed, betting tips will be added in the morning.