Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Tuesday

ESPN Fantasy

Jul 28, 2025, 04:35 PM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR TUESDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	ER	K
14.1	Tyler Glasnow	R	@CIN	85.9%	59%	5.7	2.1	7.1
11.5	Sean Manaea	L	@SD	39.8%	53%	5.5	2.0	5.4
11.2	Jesus Luzardo	L	@CWS	63.7%	53%	5.6	2.5	6.3
11.2	Sonny Gray	R	MIA	94.2%	58%	5.6	2.4	5.8
11.0	Max Fried	L	TB	99.0%	54%	5.6	2.3	6.0
9.6	Michael Soroka	R	@HOU	3.7%	47%	5.1	2.2	5.0
9.4	Yusei Kikuchi	L	TEX	71.2%	52%	5.6	2.9	5.8
9.2	Seth Lugo	R	ATL	80.9%	53%	5.9	3.1	5.1
9.0	Brandon Pfaadt	R	@DET	61.8%	48%	5.6	2.9	5.4
8.9	Luis Severino	R	SEA	13.0%	51%	5.7	2.8	5.1
8.7	Yu Darvish	R	NYM	11.3%	47%	5.0	2.1	4.5
8.3	Justin Verlander	R	PIT	6.8%	51%	5.4	2.6	4.6
8.2	Nick Lodolo	L	LAD	66.7%	41%	5.3	2.9	5.6
7.8	Lucas Giolito	R	@MIN	28.7%	48%	5.4	3.2	5.4
7.7	Logan Allen	L	COL	5.9%	59%	5.3	2.9	4.7
7.4	Jonathan Cannon	R	PHI	0.8%	47%	5.3	2.9	4.5
7.4	Joe Boyle	R	@NYY	6.4%	46%	4.7	2.3	5.5
7.3	Quinn Priester	R	CHC	36.9%	54%	5.3	2.9	4.7
7.3	Erick Fedde	R	@KC	5.4%	47%	5.4	3.0	4.6
7.2	Charlie Morton	R	TOR, Gm. 1	6.2%	51%	5.5	3.2	5.0
7.2	Sandy Alcantara	R	@STL	37.5%	42%	5.6	3.0	4.4
7.1	Jason Alexander	R	WSH	0.2%	53%	6.2	3.6	4.9
7.0	Bailey Falter	L	@SF	4.6%	49%	4.8	2.3	3.7
6.8	Colin Rea	R	@MIL	9.5%	46%	5.2	3.1	4.5
6.5	Casey Mize	R	ARI	54.0%	52%	5.1	3.0	4.3
6.5	Logan Evans	R	@ATH	1.5%	49%	5.2	3.1	4.7
6.5	Cade Povich	L	TOR, Gm. 2	0.7%	51%	5.2	3.1	4.7
5.8	Patrick Corbin	L	@LAA	7.9%	48%	5.5	3.6	4.6
4.9	Eric Lauer	L	@BAL, Gm. 1	20.3%	49%	4.6	3.3	4.8
3.7	Adam Macko	L	@BAL, Gm. 2	0.0%	49%	4.7	3.6	5.0
3.7	Tanner Gordon	R	@CLE	0.2%	41%	4.6	3.2	3.7
	TBD		BOS	0.0%	52%	0.0	0.0	0.0

Pitchers to stream on Tuesday

Sean Manaea has pitched three times since debuting in mid-July after recovering from an oblique issue. He's thrown progressively more pitches in each outing, reaching 82 in five frames last time against the Los Angeles Angels. The New York Mets appear ready to fully unleash the veteran southpaw on the road against the San Diego Padres. Manaea will face a below-average offense versus left-handers, fueled by one of the lowest home run rates with a lefty on the hill.
Eric Lauer is one of the reasons the Toronto Blue Jays enter Monday's action with the best record in baseball. It's easy to dismiss his 6-2 record with a 2.61 ERA and 0.93 WHIP as luck, but a 3.49 SIERA and 3.84 xFIP demonstrate that Lauer is also pitching well. He's certainly benefiting from a .233 BABIP and 83.9% left-on-base mark, but his 20.4% K-BB% is tied for 15th best among pitchers logging at least 69 frames. Slated to start the opener of Tuesday's twin bill in Camden Yards, the veteran southpaw squares off with the lineup sporting the ninth-highest strikeout rate and sixth-worst wOBA with a lefty on the hill.
Since yielding seven runs in just 1 2/3 innings to the Angels in early June, Lucas Giolito has pitched to a 2.25 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with 45 punchouts in 48 frames, and that includes a subpar effort in his last start. Look for the right-hander to rebound with a road date at Target Field against the Minnesota Twins. It's a favorable matchup regardless, but it could be even better with Twins star OF Byron Buxton nursing left side rib cartilage irritation.

Pitchers to avoid on Tuesday

Nick Lodolo is on a roll, recording four straight quality starts with his last effort a complete game road shutout over the Washington Nationals. He tossed 105 pitches, this coming following a 97-pitch effort in his first outing after the break. This is enough to be leery since the Cincinnati Reds may wish to protect their injury-prone southpaw. And considering that Lodolo will take the hill at Dodgers Stadium, the safe play is to avoid him. While homers haven't been an issue for Lodolo, he's facing a Los Angeles Dodgers lineup with MLB's highest home run rate facing left-handers.

Hitters to stream on Tuesday

Doubleheaders are prime targets for hitters to stream since they may get extra chances to produce. Teams in the playoff hunt are more likely to start their best players in both games, so the advantage goes to the Blue Jays when they meet the Baltimore Orioles for a pair. Addison Barger and Ernie Clement generally start regardless of the opposing pitcher, so they head the list. Orioles candidates to play two are Jackson Holliday, Jordan Westburg, Ramon Laureano, Tyler O'Neill and Cedric Mullins.

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Because odds typically do not get set until the previous day's games are completed, betting tips will be added in the morning.