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Pitchers to stream on Tuesday
Sean Manaea has pitched three times since debuting in mid-July after recovering from an oblique issue. He's thrown progressively more pitches in each outing, reaching 82 in five frames last time against the Los Angeles Angels. The New York Mets appear ready to fully unleash the veteran southpaw on the road against the San Diego Padres. Manaea will face a below-average offense versus left-handers, fueled by one of the lowest home run rates with a lefty on the hill.
Eric Lauer is one of the reasons the Toronto Blue Jays enter Monday's action with the best record in baseball. It's easy to dismiss his 6-2 record with a 2.61 ERA and 0.93 WHIP as luck, but a 3.49 SIERA and 3.84 xFIP demonstrate that Lauer is also pitching well. He's certainly benefiting from a .233 BABIP and 83.9% left-on-base mark, but his 20.4% K-BB% is tied for 15th best among pitchers logging at least 69 frames. Slated to start the opener of Tuesday's twin bill in Camden Yards, the veteran southpaw squares off with the lineup sporting the ninth-highest strikeout rate and sixth-worst wOBA with a lefty on the hill.
Since yielding seven runs in just 1 2/3 innings to the Angels in early June, Lucas Giolito has pitched to a 2.25 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with 45 punchouts in 48 frames, and that includes a subpar effort in his last start. Look for the right-hander to rebound with a road date at Target Field against the Minnesota Twins. It's a favorable matchup regardless, but it could be even better with Twins star OF Byron Buxton nursing left side rib cartilage irritation.
Pitchers to avoid on Tuesday
Nick Lodolo is on a roll, recording four straight quality starts with his last effort a complete game road shutout over the Washington Nationals. He tossed 105 pitches, this coming following a 97-pitch effort in his first outing after the break. This is enough to be leery since the Cincinnati Reds may wish to protect their injury-prone southpaw. And considering that Lodolo will take the hill at Dodgers Stadium, the safe play is to avoid him. While homers haven't been an issue for Lodolo, he's facing a Los Angeles Dodgers lineup with MLB's highest home run rate facing left-handers.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Washington Nationals pitchers vs. Astros hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.86 ERA in this matchup.
Cleveland Guardians pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: A | Park: D | Umpire: F | Temperature: D- | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.95 ERA in this matchup.
San Francisco Giants pitchers vs. Pirates hitters
Offense: C | Park: C | Umpire: C | Temperature: A | Wind: F | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.04 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Cincinnati Reds pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.83 ERA in this matchup.
Toronto Blue Jays pitchers vs. Orioles hitters
Offense: F | Park: D | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: F | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.81 ERA in this matchup.
Tampa Bay Rays pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
Offense: D | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: F | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.26 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Tuesday
Doubleheaders are prime targets for hitters to stream since they may get extra chances to produce. Teams in the playoff hunt are more likely to start their best players in both games, so the advantage goes to the Blue Jays when they meet the Baltimore Orioles for a pair. Addison Barger and Ernie Clement generally start regardless of the opposing pitcher, so they head the list. Orioles candidates to play two are Jackson Holliday, Jordan Westburg, Ramon Laureano, Tyler O'Neill and Cedric Mullins.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Boston Red Sox LHB vs. Twins pitchers
SP: A+ | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Umpire: A | Framing: D | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .362 wOBA in this matchup.
Athletics LHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: B | Park: B | Umpire: D | Framing: F | Temperature: A | Wind: A | Home
The average hitter would post a .355 wOBA in this matchup.
Kansas City Royals LHB vs. Braves pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Umpire: A+ | Framing: D | Temperature: A | Wind: D | Home
The average hitter would post a .353 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Tampa Bay Rays RHB vs. Yankees pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: D | Umpire: C | Framing: F | Temperature: A+ | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .281 wOBA in this matchup.
Chicago Cubs RHB vs. Brewers pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: F | Park: F | Umpire: D | Framing: D | Temperature: B | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .287 wOBA in this matchup.
Texas Rangers LHB vs. Angels pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: A | Park: C | Umpire: C | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .291 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+500)
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $27.80 EV
One reason to bet this: The weather forecast expects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games today at 94 degrees. High temperatures are linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
Wenceel Perez | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.36 EV
One reason to bet this: Comerica Park has the second-lowest fences in MLB.
Brent Rooker | OVER 0.5 HR (+375)
Projection: 23% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.87 EV
One reason to bet this: With a .358 expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by my projections) this year, Rooker ranks in the 89th percentile for offensive skills.
Today's top pitcher prop bet
Logan Allen | UNDER 4.5 K (+110)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.11 EV
One reason to bet this: Shane Livensparger, a huge "hitter's umpire" is likely to be behind the plate in today's game.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Rangers @ Angels | YRFI (-105)
Projection: 54% chance of RUN with a $6.29 EV
Phillies @ White Sox | YRFI (-105)
Projection: 54% chance of RUN with a $6.05 EV
Red Sox @ Twins | YRFI (-110)
Projection: 55% chance of RUN with a $4.95 EV