Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Tuesday

ESPN Fantasy

Jul 8, 2025, 06:53 AM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR TUESDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
13.3	Logan Gilbert	R	@NYY	96.2%	EVEN	8.5	60%	5.8	2.3	6.5
12.4	Nick Pivetta	R	ARI	92.2%	-130	7.5	58%	5.5	2.1	6.1
12.3	Hunter Brown	R	CLE	98.9%	-215	7.5	58%	5.5	2.0	6.3
12.2	Sonny Gray	R	WSH	96.0%	-190	8.5	62%	5.8	2.3	5.9
11.0	Merrill Kelly	R	@SD	77.4%	+110	7.5	42%	5.8	2.3	5.5
10.7	Seth Lugo	R	PIT	82.4%	-145	7.5	54%	6.0	2.7	5.3
10.7	Shota Imanaga	L	@MIN	94.2%	-145	9.5	46%	5.9	2.7	5.7
10.7	Chris Bassitt	R	@CWS	66.6%	-185	8.5	56%	5.9	2.7	5.7
10.3	Robbie Ray	L	PHI	92.7%	-155	7.5	57%	5.4	2.4	5.6
9.5	Ryan Pepiot	R	@DET	61.8%	+105	8.5	51%	5.2	2.4	5.3
9.2	Nathan Eovaldi	R	@LAA	93.2%	-120	8.5	59%	5.2	2.6	5.1
9.1	Jack Flaherty	R	TB	77.5%	-125	8.5	49%	5.5	3.0	5.9
8.8	Will Warren	R	SEA	21.2%	-120	8.5	40%	5.1	2.5	5.7
8.4	Eury Perez	R	@CIN	15.7%	+105	8.5	48%	4.7	2.4	5.3
8.2	Clay Holmes	R	@BAL	72.1%	-145	9.5	54%	5.5	2.8	4.7
8.0	Jake Irvin	R	@STL	14.4%	+160	8.5	38%	5.7	2.8	4.6
7.8	Brayan Bello	R	COL	18.2%	-250	8.5	63%	5.5	3.2	5.4
7.7	Mitch Keller	R	@KC	53.8%	+120	7.5	46%	5.8	3.3	4.8
7.7	Simeon Woods Richardson	R	CHC	2.3%	+120	9.5	54%	4.9	2.4	4.3
7.5	Aaron Civale	R	TOR	1.8%	+155	8.5	44%	5.2	2.7	4.3
7.2	Jose Soriano	R	TEX	25.1%	EVEN	8.5	41%	5.3	2.8	5.0
7.2	Jeffrey Springs	L	ATL	12.3%	-105	10.5	51%	5.1	2.8	4.6
7.1	Nick Martinez	R	MIA	28.7%	-125	8.5	52%	5.1	3.0	4.6
6.5	Clayton Kershaw	L	@MIL	40.8%	-125	8.5	70%	4.5	2.5	4.0
6.2	Didier Fuentes	R	@ATH	0.6%	-115	10.5	49%	4.6	2.8	5.0
6.2	Jacob Misiorowski	R	LAD	73.7%	+105	8.5	30%	4.4	2.3	5.0
5.8	Taijuan Walker	R	@SF	1.9%	+130	7.5	43%	5.2	2.9	4.1
5.1	Joey Cantillo	L	@HOU	0.5%	+180	7.5	42%	4.2	2.7	5.1
4.4	Brandon Young	R	NYM	0.1%	+120	9.5	46%	4.4	2.9	4.0
3.6	Kyle Freeland	L	@BOS	1.1%	+205	8.5	37%	5.1	3.9	4.4

Pitchers to stream on Tuesday

It's never comfortable streaming a pitcher at Great American Ballpark, but Eury Perez will be making his sixth start since returning from Tommy John surgery and his velocity is at pre-injury levels while his command and control are coming around. Most notably, Perez has served up just one home run in 22 frames. Despite their favorable home venue, Cincinnati Reds batters' home wOBA is just a tad above average, while they fan at an above average clip.
While it varies by opponent, Jose Soriano overall is throwing fewer sinkers and splitters while mixing in more four-seamers and curves. The tweak is seemingly working, as Soriano has posted a 2.84 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with 39 strikeouts and just 10 walks over his last 31 2/3 innings. Four of those games were quality starts, though the fifth was a clunker against the Washington Nationals. Soriano should be able to avoid another rough outing with the Los Angeles Angels hosting a Texas Rangers team with the second-lowest wOBA against right-handers.
The Colorado Rockies sport the second-lowest road wOBA facing right-handers and historically have struggled the first few games following a homestand. On Tuesday, the Rockies play the second game of a road series against Brayan Bello and the Boston Red Sox. Bello's streak of five straight quality starts was snapped last week, but that's because he was used in relief to start a suspended game against the Reds. He remained effective in that one as well, allowing only two runs in five stanzas.

Pitchers to avoid on Tuesday

Sooner than later, Jacob Misiorowski will merit "start anytime, anywhere" status, but the Milwaukee Brewers' prized rookie is making just his fifth major league start, and it's a home date with the high-scoring Los Angeles Dodgers. Additionally, Misiorowski is coming off his first subpar effort of the season, giving up five runs to the New York Mets in only 3 2/3 innings. There will be plenty of chances for Misiorowski to pad fantasy stats after the break.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Tuesday

Monday's recommendation to stream the Red Sox right-handed contingent carries over to Tuesday with the Rockies sending southpaw Kyle Freeland to the hill. Nate Eaton, Romy Gonzalez, Rob Refsnyder, Trevor Story and Ceddanne Rafaela are the primary targets.
In the spirit of providing options, the Mets' lefty-swinging brethren experiences a big park upgrade in a road tilt with Brandon Young and the Baltimore Orioles. In four starts, Young sports a 7.02 ERA and 1.98 WHIP. Brandon Nimmo and Brett Baty are in the best position to take advantage, as is Jesse Winker if he's activated from the 60-day IL.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top HR prop bets

Royce Lewis | OVER 0.5 HR (+525)
Projection: 18% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.63 EV
One reason to bet this: Lewis has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this season. Compare 2025's 91-mph average to last seasons 87.1-mph figure.

Ryan Jeffers | OVER 0.5 HR (+450)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.08 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.7 mph in this matchup, the third-most favorable of the day for bats.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+300)
Projection: 27% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.24 EV
One reason to bet this: Guerrero has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late. Compare his 98.2-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal EV of 94.6 mph.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Shota Imanaga | UNDER 4.5 K (+120)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.02 EV
One reason to bet this: Imanaga's 90.4-mph fastball velocity this season is a significant 1.2-mph fall-off from last year's 91.6-mph figure.

Chris Bassitt | UNDER 4.5 K (+115)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.69 EV
One reason to bet this: Bassitt's fastball velocity has fallen 1.9 mph this year (90.7 mph) below where it was last season (92.6 mph).

Eury Perez | UNDER 5.5 K (-125)
Projection: 61% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.13 EV
One reason to bet this: The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach 86 degrees -- the second-highest of all games on the slate. This is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets

Nationals @ Cardinals | NRFI (-115)
Projection: 55% chance of NO RUN with a $2.54 EV

Phillies @ Giants | YRFI (-100)
Projection: 51% chance of RUN with a $2.04 EV

Braves @ Athletics | YRFI (-135)
Projection: 58% chance of RUN with a $1.35 EV