Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Saturday

Todd ZolaJun 27, 2025, 05:00 PM ET
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Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR SATURDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	ER	K
12.0	Clarke Schmidt	R	ATH	55.7%	60%	5.7	2.1	5.5
11.6	Spencer Schwellenbach	R	PHI	94.7%	58%	6.0	2.9	6.1
11.3	Robbie Ray	L	@CWS	91.4%	58%	5.4	2.2	6.2
10.8	Andrew Abbott	L	SD	81.0%	53%	5.7	2.5	5.3
10.8	Bryan Woo	R	@TEX	91.4%	59%	5.6	2.4	4.9
9.3	Bailey Ober	R	@DET	66.7%	63%	5.4	2.8	5.3
9.0	Colin Rea	R	@HOU	5.4%	57%	5.4	2.7	4.9
8.6	Jesus Luzardo	L	@ATL	76.2%	42%	5.5	3.1	6.1
8.5	Seth Lugo	R	LAD	71.5%	52%	5.8	3.1	5.0
8.4	Brandon Pfaadt	R	MIA	60.7%	48%	5.4	2.9	5.4
8.4	Zach Eflin	R	TB	29.6%	54%	5.5	3.0	4.8
8.3	Chris Bassitt	R	@BOS	72.1%	57%	5.7	3.4	5.7
8.2	JP Sears	L	@NYY	6.6%	40%	5.4	2.8	5.0
8.2	Sandy Alcantara	R	@ARI	45.1%	52%	5.7	3.0	4.7
8.0	Lance McCullers Jr.	R	CHC	8.9%	43%	4.8	2.4	5.3
7.8	Adrian Houser	R	SF	9.5%	42%	5.4	2.7	4.5
7.7	Zack Littell	R	@BAL	25.7%	46%	5.3	3.0	4.6
7.3	Michael Soroka	R	@LAA	4.4%	52%	5.2	2.9	4.7
6.9	Kumar Rocker	R	SEA	3.3%	41%	4.5	2.5	4.7
6.8	Quinn Priester	R	COL	18.1%	61%	5.2	3.1	4.7
6.7	Miles Mikolas	R	@CLE	4.0%	53%	5.1	3.0	4.2
6.1	Bailey Falter	L	NYM	7.7%	53%	4.8	2.5	3.4
6.0	Slade Cecconi	R	STL	5.5%	47%	4.7	2.8	4.2
5.9	Randy Vasquez	R	@CIN	2.6%	47%	4.9	2.9	3.9
5.8	Casey Mize	R	MIN	53.4%	37%	5.1	3.0	4.3
5.8	Paul Blackburn	R	@PIT	0.4%	47%	5.0	2.9	4.5
4.8	Kyle Hendricks	R	WSH	2.3%	48%	5.2	3.4	3.9
3.8	Lucas Giolito	R	TOR	12.8%	43%	5.0	4.0	4.9
2.9	Shohei Ohtani	R	@KC	99.9%	48%	2.6	1.6	2.3
2.2	Antonio Senzatela	R	@MIL	0.2%	39%	4.8	3.7	3.6

Pitchers to stream on Saturday

Michael Soroka's 5.06 ERA is well over a run too high according to the associated 3.72 xFIP and 3.32 SIERA. He has benefited from a .258 BABIP but has been victimized by a 16.9% home run per fly ball level and a 69.2% left-on-base mark. Soroka's 26.5% strikeout rate is pacing towards a career best, and he has a chance to keep it going when the Washington Nationals visit the Los Angeles Angels, and the offense striking out at the second-highest clip in MLB facing right-handers.
The Tampa Bay Rays are encouraging their pitchers to work higher in the zone and to throw inside more often. There have been varying results with Zack Littell's success, but it comes with a couple of yellow flags. Ten of his 16 outings have been quality starts, but they're buoyed by a .258 BABIP and 87.4% left-on-base mark. At some points, Littell's low 16.9% strikeout rate will be an issue, but walking hitters just 2.8% of the time helps. Homers have been a problem, with a surprisingly high 14 of 22 long balls allowed coming on the road. Littell is risky against potent lineups, but on Saturday he draws the Baltimore Orioles on the road. The Orioles are one of the league's first-half disappointments with a below-average wOBA and above-average strikeout rate, and both have been worsening over the past month.
Clarke Schmidt's rostership is a tad over the informal 50% plateau, but considering he's the top-ranked pitcher on Saturday's docket, it's worth checking his availability. The back end of the New York Yankees' rotation is in flux, but Schmidt gives the club a big three, joining Max Fried and Carlos Rodon as frontliners. Four of Schmidt's last five efforts have been quality starts, all dour of those being scoreless outings. On Saturday, Schmidt faces the Athletics, whose main asset is home runs. However, Schmidt has surrendered only six dingers in 69 2/3 frames, with only one ball leaving the yard over his previous 43 stanzas.
Slade Cecconi merits streaming consideration when the Cleveland Guardians host the St. Louis Cardinals. The righty seemingly solved early season gopheritis and is sporting a 2.05 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over his last four starts while fanning 20 in 22 frames and allowing just one homer.

Pitchers to avoid on Saturday

This time last season, Bailey Ober was amid an 11-game stretch, dropping his ERA from 5.13 to 3.54. Currently, his 4.90 ERA is close to last season's mark before that hot streak. The difference is that last year the underlying metrics foretold improvement, whereas this season they're concerning. Ober's 18.3% strikeout rate is by far a career low. Already a fly-ball pitcher, Ober is inducing even fewer ground balls which, in concert with the lack of strikeouts, has bloated his home run rate. Ober can turn things around, but with a road date facing the Detroit Tigers, the safe play is to look elsewhere.

Hitters to stream on Saturday

Home or away doesn't matter; Antonio Senzatela is struggling. With the Milwaukee Brewers hosting the Colorado Rockies, Brice Turang, Sal Frelick, Rhys Hoskins, Joey Ortiz and Caleb Durbin all line up for a productive afternoon.

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Because odds typically do not get set until the previous day's games are completed, betting tips will be added in the morning.