Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.
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Pitchers to stream on Thursday
Grant Holmes' transition to full-time starter is one of the few high points of the Atlanta Braves first half. He recorded eight quality starts with four occurring in his previous eight outings. Over this span, Holmes ERA is 2.96 with a 1.20 WHIP, featuring 57 strikeouts in 45 2/3 innings. A slightly low .286 BABIP has helped rescue a high 10.1% walk rate in this span. On Thursday, Holmes starts in pitcher-friendly Citi Field against a New York Mets lineup entering Wednesday's action with 10 losses in their prior 11 contests. They averaged just 3.1 runs per game over that span, which included an 11-run outburst in their only win.
Hayden Birdsong is in a rut, but with the San Francisco Giants hosting the Miami Marlins, the 23-year-old right-hander is in a good spot to get back on track. Over his previous three outings, Birdsong posted a 5.52 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. Fanning 15 in 14 2/3 innings is encouraging, but eight walks in that span, combined with an elevated .302 BABIP generated too much traffic. The Marlins are one of the least patient teams in the league.
Heading into his last outing, Emerson Hancock was on a roll, sporting a 2.48 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in five starts, covering 29 frames. Strikeouts were low with just 20, but Hancock walked just nine while yielding only three homers. Last time, even though he punched out five in four innings, the Chicago Cubs rocked Hancock for eight runs on three homers. Thursday's follow-up is on the road against the Minnesota Twins, a steep downgrade from the potent Cubs.
Pitchers to avoid on Thursday
Only five of Thursday's 22 probable starters are rostered in more than half of ESPN leagues and are all ranked in the top six of today's card. It's rare to avoid the top-ranked option, but Shota Imanaga will be making his first start since early May as he's been on the IL recovering from a strained hamstring. He tossed 72 pitches in his final rehab effort, but the Chicago Cubs may manage his pitch count on the road against the St. Louis Cardinals.
Hitters to stream on Thursday
Andre Pallante doesn't miss many bats with 58 punchouts in 82 1/3 innings. He has six quality starts in 15 outings so he can be effective, but he's vulnerable against an offense like the Cubs. Coors Field remains the top destination for bats on a slate with only nine games, but streaming some Cubs for the road date with Pallante and the St. Louis Cardinals can also pay dividends. Dansby Swanson, Michael Busch and Matt Shaw are the primary targets.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Because odds typically do not get set until the previous day's games are completed, betting tips will be added in the morning.