Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
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Pitchers to stream on Monday
After posting a 2.84 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over his first 14 appearances spanning 69 2/3 innings, Chad Patrick surrendered nine earned runs in his last two starts, covering 10 frames. The Milwaukee Brewers open the fantasy week at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates, providing Patrick with the ideal platform to get back on track. The Pirates sport the second lowest wOBA facing righties, spurred by an above average strikeout rate.
The Chicago Cubs have been hoping that Ben Brown develops a third pitch and there are signs he's doing so. Since increasing slider usage to close to 10%, he's registered a 3.80 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with 26 punchouts in 23 2/3 innings, and that includes a hiccup where Brown gave up six runs in 5 2/3 frames to the Philadelphia Phillies. Monday is going to be a good test for Brown when the Cubs visit the St. Louis Cardinals. Overall, the Cardinals offense is average versus right-handed pitching, but they're the best team handling changeups. Brown doesn't throw it enough to be overly concerned, but it will be interesting to monitor his pitch mix.
Stephen Kolek isn't a big strikeout guy, but he generally pitches into the sixth inning as he limits walks and keeps the ball in the yard. He's particularly alluring for home games in Petco Park, and the San Diego Padres open a home series with the Washington Nationals, one of the least productive teams with a righty on the hill.
Pitchers to avoid on Monday
Bailey Ober began June with a 3.48 ERA, though his 1.35 WHIP and pedestrian 50 strikeouts in 62 frames warned of impending struggles. Sure enough, Ober registered a 8.31 ERA 1.56 WHIP in three starts this month, fanning just 12 over those 17 1/3 stanzas. Ober went through a rough patch last season and pitched his way out of it, so there's precedent for taking a chance he rights the ship at home against the Seattle Mariners, but this season's underlying metrics aren't as optimistic as last season. Ober is worth stashing in deeper formats, but he needs to miss more bats and keep the ball in yard before sniffing an active lineup.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Los Angeles Angels pitchers vs. Red Sox hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: B | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.87 ERA in this matchup.
San Diego Padres pitchers vs. Nationals hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.92 ERA in this matchup.
Milwaukee Brewers pitchers vs. Pirates hitters
Offense: C | Park: A | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.09 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Cincinnati Reds pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.64 ERA in this matchup.
Atlanta Braves pitchers vs. Mets hitters
Offense: F | Park: A | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D- | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.11 ERA in this matchup.
St. Louis Cardinals pitchers vs. Cubs hitters
Offense: F | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.10 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Monday
In his past six outings, Jack Kochanowicz has surrendered a generous eight home runs in only 27 1/3 innings. Next up is a home date with the Boston Red Sox with only Jarren Duran rostered in more than half of ESPN leagues. Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela and Trevor Story are all in play to help fortify a Monday lineup with only nine games on the docket.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Baltimore Orioles RHB vs. Rangers pitchers
SP: A+ | Bullpen: A | Park: B | Framing: F | Temperature: A+ | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .362 wOBA in this matchup.
Cincinnati Reds batters vs. Yankees pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: D | Park: A | Framing: F | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .348 wOBA in this matchup.
Chicago White Sox LHB vs. Diamondbacks pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: B | Park: B | Framing: B | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .342 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
Minnesota Twins RHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Framing: F | Temperature: B | Wind: A | Home
The average hitter would post a .287 wOBA in this matchup.
New York Mets RHB vs. Braves pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Framing: D | Temperature: A | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .293 wOBA in this matchup.
Washington Nationals RHB vs. Padres pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: F | Park: C | Framing: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .299 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Wyatt Langford | OVER 0.5 HR (+475)
Projection: 22% chance of this bet hitting, with a $26.21 EV
One reason to bet this: Langford is in the 77th percentile for power, per my projections' version of expected HR/600 plate appearances at 23.7.
Ramon Laureano | OVER 0.5 HR (+525)
Projection: 19% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.19 EV
One reason to bet this: The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this matchup to reach 96 degrees, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
Dylan Carlson | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.64 EV
One reason to bet this: Carlson has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity of late. Compare his 93.8-mph average over the last week to his season-long 88.5-mph average.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Spencer Schwellenbach | UNDER 5.5 K (-125)
Projection: 61% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.08 EV
One reason to bet this: With seven hitters who bat from the other side in the opposing team's projected batting order, Schwellenbach encounters a tough challenge in this matchup.
Paul Blackburn | OVER 2.5 ER (-100)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.42 EV
One reason to bet this: The weather forecast predicts the fourth-most favorable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.
Chad Patrick | UNDER 5.5 K (-130)
Projection: 62% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.03 EV
One reason to bet this: Patrick (39.2 GB% via my projections) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup given Pittsburgh's projected batting order.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets
Braves @ Mets | YRFI (-115)
Projection: 55% chance of RUN with a $3.14 EV
Pirates @ Brewers | NRFI (-110)
Projection: 53% chance of NO RUN with a $0.25 EV
Yankees @ Reds | YRFI (-130)
Projection: 57% chance of RUN with a $0.20 EV