Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.
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Pitchers to stream on Thursday
Erick Fedde is the prototypical example of a points-league pitcher; he's not dominant, but he's capable of going deep into games. Thursday presents a great opportunity for the righty to pile up innings points when the St. Louis Cardinals visit the Chicago White Sox. Fedde faces the lineup sporting the worst wOBA in MLB against right-handers.
It appeared Father Time had finally caught up to Charlie Morton, but after the Baltimore Orioles banished him to the bullpen, the salty veteran experienced a renaissance as a starter, posting a 2.63 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over his last six outings, fanning 37 over those 27 1/3 frames. Keeping the momentum will be a challenge against the Tampa Bay Rays on the road. The Rays have won 19 of their last 26 games to move into second place in the AL East, just 2 1/2 games behind the New York Yankees entering Wednesday's action. Even so, Morton's recent run, fueled by a 31.1% strikeout rate, warrants streaming attention.
As you may have heard, the San Francisco Giants recently made a move to address their lack of left-handed power, but they're still vulnerable to right-handed pitching. Gavin Williams and the Cleveland Guardians visit the Giants for an interleague affair Thursday. Williams remains inconsistent, especially with his control, but he's starting to show signs of finally taking the next step. Over his prior seven outings spanning 37 1/3 stanzas, Williams has recorded a 2.89 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with 35 strikeouts.
Pitchers to avoid on Thursday
With Kodai Senga and Tylor Megill on the IL and Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas still sidelined (though not for much longer), the New York Mets need Grant Holmes to continue providing solid work in his first season not only with the club, but also as a full-time starting pitcher. His 2.87 ERA suggests the transition has gone swimmingly, but the corresponding ERA estimators are at least one run higher, so regression is probably coming. That said, a correction close to the expected ERA levels land Holmes as a slightly better than average pitcher. Thursday presents a big test with the Mets visiting the Atlanta Braves. Fueled by a pedestrian 16.3% strikeout rate over his last 52 2/3 innings while yielding nine homers in that span, Holmes lands in the avoid range in our Thursday pitching rankings.
Hitters to stream on Thursday
Jacob Lopez has been a mixed back lately. He has fanned 31 in 23 innings over his last five efforts but with a 5.09 ERA, as he's been burned by six long balls in that span. The southpaw squares off with the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre on Thursday. Lopez faces a lineup with the third-lowest strikeout rate against left-handers. The Blue Jays generally stack their lineup with righty swingers when a lefty is on the hill, with Alejandro Kirk, George Springer, Ernie Clement and Davis Schneider the top streaming options.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Because odds typically do not get set until the previous day's games are completed, betting tips will be added in the morning.